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Author | Topic: Coronavirus and Pandemics | |||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
I think the CDC and USC feel that 20 million plus have already gotten infected.
I think 6 percent of the United States has either been infected or is presently infected.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
But what if the vulnerable were protected, and we let the 200 million people that die at a 0.1 percent rate get infected, survive, and then possibly get immunity.
That would mean 200,000 deaths in a best case scenario. Granted it is too late to protect the elderly and vulnerable people who already died, due to the fact that the United States abandoned them in the time of need.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Article titled
Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For Coronavirus Than First Thought Jon Hamilton Edited by Admin, : Turn bare text into link.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Confirmed cases are not synonymous with symptomatic cases.
See my NPR link on the Indiana governmental study which showed 11 times the actual number of people infected than the live infection numbers showed. It brought the death rate down to 0.58 percent. Notice that the randomly selected group, for the antibody tests, did indeed report symptoms AFTER the test came back positive. 3 percent were either infected currently or had anti bodies. 45 percent were asymptomatic. This was the group that showed that the infection rate was 11 times higher than we all thought, based on the limited testing and such. So we can extrapolate the 11X number to the whole nation and get 19 million or so people infected, presently or previously. That would mean we have a death rate between 0.5 and 0.6 percent not 0.26 or 0.4, however. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
were in nursing homes and long term care facilities.
43 percent if New York is thrown in with the other 49 states. This is the result of lockdown policies which cause the emergency spending to be diverted from programs to protect the elderly and vulnerable, and instead be used to help prop up a collapsing economy that the lockdown caused. The lockdown has been joined to the hip of a cruel economic calculation that requires the demand for every last federal aid penny to be used with the economy, NOT lives and humanity, in mind. I think the lockdown THEORY is not necessarily going to involve the cruel parasitic package, but the practical results are what they are. It is what it is. And it is deadly . The lockdown is deadly.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
First the cutting edge article.
NEWS
Can We Apply These Lessons From South Korea To Vanquish Covid 19. By Christine Clark, UC San Diego Thursday, May 28, 2020 The study shows that the South Korean approach is superior to the nations that have stay at home orders. And the University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, UC San Diego joint study gives the actual numerical rate of increased elderly Covid 19 deaths that would result if South Korea took the lockdown approach. The study flat out states that the elderly die in higher numbers when stay at home policies replace the current South Korean policy. These are straight Coronavirus deaths too, not deaths from other causes that are a direct or indirect result of lockdown policies. And South Korea only has 269 Covid deaths, with about 12000 known coronavirus infections. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given. Edited by Admin, : Turn bare text into link.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
I can see you don't care too much for the elderly , that die due to the lockdown approach, of the USA, so let me play another note...
Look at minorities... Blacks die at a 25 to 30 percent rate, because they have jobs that require work outside of their homes. Can we ever talk about the higher lung and diabetes rates among African Americans. Again, this is a situation where we have to protect, NOT REGULATE, vulnerable populations. Just because the solutions are not popular, does not change the morals of the situation. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
There is a Washington Post article that bounces as you read, it jumps 2 paragraphs up and down every few seconds. Tough to read.read.
But it separates states into 3 categories, based on toughness of lockdown restrictions and policies. The tough lockdown approach taken by specific states resulted in higher excess mortality rates in the respective states. The moderate lockdown states had lower excess mortality rates, and Nebraska was listed as a moderate state, but it feels like a severe lockdown state if you live here. Very severe. The states that have the minimal lockdown approach have deaths below the expected mortality rates for the time of year. Link, once Percy puts it in is Pandemics Overall Death Toll In US Likely Surpass 100,000 Weeks Ago. May 30 Andrew Ba Tran Leslie Shapiro
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
A state with almost 1.5 million people, and over 4500 confirmed infections, but just 30.2 percent of deaths occurred among individuals who were not living in nursing homes or long term care facilities.
77 percent of deaths from the coronavirus occurred in the same facilities among Rhode Island's victims. An amazing 81 percent of deaths in Minnesota were among the 1.8 percent that lived in nursing homes and long term care facilities. 70 percent in Pennsylvania. The percentages were based on deaths through May 22. I really do feel the USC and Los Angeles health department study was accurate when the death rate per Coronavirus infection was 0.13 outside nursing homes. Overall death rate was 0.26 percent . NOTE THE USC STUDY IS INDEPENDENT OF THE CDC REPORT.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
I see Minnesota has 25,000 confirmed infections and 1,050 deaths. A state with around 7 million people.
But 81 percent of deaths were among those who lived in nursing homes and long term care facilities. That means that 200 deaths from the disease were from outside the facilities. I don't know how many confirmed infections were from outside the facilities, but it must be at least 15,000. That would mean that the death rate, outside the facilities, is less than 1.4 percent based on confirmed infections. Remember that the studies place the actual number of infected to be around 10 times higher than the confirmed infections. That would mean that the death rate, outside nursing homes and long term care facilities, in Minnesota, is around 0.15 percent. About one death per 750 to 800 infections. We need to CONSIDER the possibility that we are going to have to invest money to protect the elderly and vulnerable. And that means more health care dollars per person must be budgeted. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Lancaster County, which is 95 percent Lincoln, has around 1200 to 1300 infections, with 9 deaths.
Nebraska, ad a whole, has about 15000 infections and 186 deaths. I was on weather.com and by accident clicked on the Covid link. I did not know that the death rate was so low here. I never paid attention.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Nebraska shocked me, and opened my favorite restaurant around the beginning of June. It is a super cheap all you can eat pizza buffet. The problem is that you need to have an employee give you your pizza, raw vegetables, etc. You can no longer grab your food yourself.
Nebraska's 17,000 plus confirmed infections have 234 of those infected dead. Still under 1.5 percent of confirmed infections are met with death. A few weeks ago, I recall the fatality rate per confirmed infection to be around 1.2 to 1.3 percent. It appears to be 1.4 percent now. The Covid deaths were 186 a few weeks ago. Now 234. So 50 more in a state with just under 2 million residents. Nebraska appears to have a 0.9, percent of population, confirmed infection rate. The country is not quite at a 0.7 confirmed infection rate. I don't really know how the death curve works, but there could be a spike in deaths, but it is unseen so far. June has been less deadly than May, which was less deadly than April. The newly confirmed infections were higher in May than in April, if Oil recall correctly. The big problem is knowing what the true infection rate was and is. Then just how long does it take for various types of victims to get sick and die.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
Infections are up, but deaths are down.
It seems that the increased testing has allowing the infected to be aware THEN TO SELF QUARANTINE Then there is the massive amount of racial minorities with a high percentage of deaths. Congregate living situations in a fair chunk percentage of the population is a challenge. Poverty and lower income are s deadly. This is a challenge that the cruel society, which makes up the United States, is not prepared to meet. And DON'T FORGET THE ELDERLY. This Coronavirus is showing what a massive societal failure this country is. Left, right, middle, etc. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
... most states .
It actually has the lowest unemployment rate in the nation at 5.2 percent. Thus was based on the May unemployed survey. Released first week of June. I just found out. I was searching unemployment rates for Nebraskska. The death rate was my first search. I noticed Utsh had a low death rate for the coronavirus. Like 0.8 percent or lower. Nebrasja is about 1.4 percent. Percent of confirmed infections. I am no big fan of either states, but the data are relevant, regardless. We will be studying the data for decades, I predict.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2422 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
April had around 60,000
May had around 40,000. June will hold at under 30,000. Nebraska is crossing a 1 percent case infection rate. 18,524 cases of the infections, with 266 deaths. The 1.4 percent death rate holds. Utah crossed 20,000 cases, with just 166 deaths. Testing is clearly the reason for lower disease spread, but can massively ramped up testing bring the fatality rate below 10,000 a month? I hope we can find out.
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