Coronavirus and Pandemics

While deaths represent a near real-time approximation of reality, the other numbers, new case and new hospitalizations are reflections of what was happening two weeks to a month ago. Further, the number of deaths are subject to classification errors and yes, classification bias.

It's interesting that the US reported costs for the Vietnam War converted to 2020 dollars would be just over one billion dollars and took four years to kill 60,000 Americans. Seems a simple proof that Pestilence is far more efficient but also far more expensive than War. No real data where Famine would fall on the spectrum.

I had to take my car to get inspected to renew tags and it's annual oil change (over 7000 miles on it now and it's only 5 years old). Several of the staff were not wearing masks although the doors were posted that to enter you had to wear a mask and on the road almost no one was actually wearing masks.Roads were as busy as before the lockdown and most stores and restaurants open with cars in the parking lots.

Only if such things are reported.Stop testing, stop reporting, control what is released as news and the problem goes away.

But we know the answer to that problem and it is, as it has always been, vigilance and communication. The former Trump disbanded and the latter he restricts.Should work jess fine.

We are now eighteen days from State Reopening Day and yesterday saw the highest single day number of new cases yet; about double the pre-opening daily new case number. The State as a whole is seeing new high case numbers as well.What could possibly go wrong?

But in recent history it is and has been far more likely that it is the US that is the initiator or armed conflicts. Let's hope the US for once shows at least some discretion.

That's your own fault. If you insist on counting and reporting then of course you will get the bad news you want.

For March, April & May we saw a total of 575 Covid-19 cases.For the first 14 days of June we have added 475 more new cases. Hospitalization is up, ICU utilization is up, 30% of the new cases are UNDER 30 years of age.Fortunately we can fall back on the wisdom of Alfred E. Neuman.Edited by jar, : appalin spallin

Our 7 day moving average.

I stayed home just as I did most every day since this got started. But yes, the herd pretty much did just that; it was rafting parties on the rivers and head to the beach and the bar.Very very few wearing face masks almost no social distancing.AbE:Interesting pattern: interesting pattern June 1 = 9 June 8 = 25 and June 15 = 62Edited by jar, : see AbEEdited by jar, : replace fools with herd to keep the Fhrer happy

County Judge just reported that today 143 new cases were reported.One of the issues here is that our Governor decided that he would set policy and no local jurisdiction would be allowed to implement any policy that was more restrictive than what is set at the State level. We cannot require mask or social distancing or limited occupancy or any other restriction.March, April & May 575
June 1 9
June 2 26
June 3 24
June 4 45
June 5 22
June 6&7 32 22 avg
June 8 26
June 9 45
June 10 38 267
June 11 70 337
June 12 55 392
June 13&14 83 475 1050 45 avg
June 15 62 537 1112
June 16 143 680 1255

quote:

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Under the direction of Governor Abbott, with the advice of the Lt. Governor, Speaker of the House, Attorney General, and Texas Comptroller:

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The Governor’s Strike Force to Open Texas will safely and strategically restart and revitalize all aspects of the Lone Star Statework, school, entertainment, and culture.

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Source

quote:

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"The people of Texas continue to prove that we can safely and responsibly open our state for business while containing COVID-19 and keeping our state safe, said Governor Abbott. "As anticipated, the new positive cases that we are seeing are largely the result of isolated hot spots in nursing homes, jails, and meat packing plants. Thanks to the effectiveness of our Surge Response Teams, we have the ability to contain those hot spots while opening up Texas for business. As we begin Phase III, I ask all Texans and Texas businesses to continue following the standard health protocols and to heed the guidance of our state and federal officials who continue to closely monitor COVID-19. If we remain vigilant, we will continue to mitigate the spread of this virus, protect public health, and get more Texans back to work and their daily activities."

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Note that it shows no deaths, just a few "expired".It's also an older chart before the latest figures.

March, April & May 575 total
June 1 9
June 2 26
June 3 24
June 4 45
June 5 22
June 6&7 32
June 8 26
June 9 45
June 10 38
June 11 70
June 12 55
June 13&14 83
June 15 62
June 16 143
June 17 92

June 18th another 100 and June 19th another 109. Total for March, April & May was 575. For 19 days in June so far it has been 981.Typical local response has been that it is fear mongering and that most of the folk that die already have one foot in the grave.Edited by jar, : fix counts