Coronavirus and Pandemics

Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page. The trend is mildly downward. We're over 114,000 deaths now, 10,000 in just the past two weeks. If we continue at the current rate there will be at least 130,000 additional deaths by the end of year for a total of nearly 250,000 deaths: Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. The trend that was at one time downward, then ambiguous, and now is slightly, but unmistakingly, upward: A few weeks ago I predicted that cases would spike in 2-3 weeks (June 8 through June 22) and in deaths in 3-5 weeks (June 22 through July 6). These upward spikes would be mitigated, potentially significantly, by social distancing and mask wearing. It's hard to judge the degree to which media coverage exaggerates how much these safety measures are being ignored, but it's safe to say that the more strictly and widely they're followed the more the spikes will be mitigated or even eliminated. Deaths will also be mitigated by increasing medical experience with the virus.The above graphs are mildly consistent with my predictions, but I hope people in general avoid risky behavior and that my predictions prove false. It would be wonderful if we could get on the downside of this.I went shopping a couple days ago on Saturday. Mask wearing at the grocery store was 100% (excepting children under 10), a first. I forgot to pay attention to mask wearing at Home Depot. Mask wearing at Walmart was maybe 60%, but it's a big place and you can only ballpark it.--Percy

And meanwhile, in West Texas, we’re setting records in number of Covid hospitalizations and running at maybe 10% mask-wearers at Walmart. Most mask wearers are over sixty years old.

For March, April & May we saw a total of 575 Covid-19 cases.For the first 14 days of June we have added 475 more new cases. Hospitalization is up, ICU utilization is up, 30% of the new cases are UNDER 30 years of age.Fortunately we can fall back on the wisdom of Alfred E. Neuman.Edited by jar, : appalin spallin

The FDA has revoked the emergency authorization for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for covid-19:

quote:

---

The FDA said it had concluded that it is no longer reasonable to believe that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are effective in treating the disease. Nor is it reasonable to believe, the agency said, "that the known and potential benefits of these products outweigh their known and potential risks.

---

It is still possible that these drugs could prove of some value in treating covid-19, but their safety and efficacy for this purpose should still be demonstrated by quality studies, and recommendations about them should come from the health profession and not from politicians.--Percy

Our 7 day moving average.

What'd you guys do on June 1 have a statewide BBQ and orgy?

I stayed home just as I did most every day since this got started. But yes, the herd pretty much did just that; it was rafting parties on the rivers and head to the beach and the bar.Very very few wearing face masks almost no social distancing.AbE:Interesting pattern: interesting pattern June 1 = 9 June 8 = 25 and June 15 = 62Edited by jar, : see AbEEdited by jar, : replace fools with herd to keep the Fhrer happy

Here's another chapter in the continuing saga of why you do not want to catch this virus. From the New York Times:
Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Father Dies From Complications of Covid-19 - The New York TimesThe article contains no details about Nur Omar Mohamed's death, other than that it was Covid-19 related.--Percy

Looks like we've found the first drug that worksCoronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug - BBC News

County Judge just reported that today 143 new cases were reported.One of the issues here is that our Governor decided that he would set policy and no local jurisdiction would be allowed to implement any policy that was more restrictive than what is set at the State level. We cannot require mask or social distancing or limited occupancy or any other restriction.March, April & May 575
June 1 9
June 2 26
June 3 24
June 4 45
June 5 22
June 6&7 32 22 avg
June 8 26
June 9 45
June 10 38 267
June 11 70 337
June 12 55 392
June 13&14 83 475 1050 45 avg
June 15 62 537 1112
June 16 143 680 1255

In specifically, it's a steroid that if given to someone on oxygen or on a ventilator, drastically reducing the rate of mortality.

Abbot is insane and power hungry.

quote:

---

Under the direction of Governor Abbott, with the advice of the Lt. Governor, Speaker of the House, Attorney General, and Texas Comptroller:

​

The Governor’s Strike Force to Open Texas will safely and strategically restart and revitalize all aspects of the Lone Star Statework, school, entertainment, and culture.

---

Source

quote:

---

"The people of Texas continue to prove that we can safely and responsibly open our state for business while containing COVID-19 and keeping our state safe, said Governor Abbott. "As anticipated, the new positive cases that we are seeing are largely the result of isolated hot spots in nursing homes, jails, and meat packing plants. Thanks to the effectiveness of our Surge Response Teams, we have the ability to contain those hot spots while opening up Texas for business. As we begin Phase III, I ask all Texans and Texas businesses to continue following the standard health protocols and to heed the guidance of our state and federal officials who continue to closely monitor COVID-19. If we remain vigilant, we will continue to mitigate the spread of this virus, protect public health, and get more Texans back to work and their daily activities."

---

Note that it shows no deaths, just a few "expired".It's also an older chart before the latest figures.

Who should wear masks? The consistent advice is that only the infected need wear masks to avoid infecting others, and that masks don't protect the uninfected.I have strongly repeated in this thread that this advice is wrong. Everyone should wear masks. They prevent the infected from spreading contagious droplets, and they prevent the uninfected from inhaling contagious droplets. This is just plan and simple logic.Finally Dr. Anthony Fauci has given this same advice. Quoting from https://thehill.com/...y-the-public-wasnt-told-to-wear-masks:

quote:

---

"Masks are not 100 percent protective. However, they certainly are better than not wearing a mask. Both to prevent you, if you happen to be a person who maybe feels well, but has an asymptomatic infection that you don't even know about, to prevent you from infecting someone else," Fauci said.

​

"But also, it can protect you a certain degree, not a hundred percent, in protecting you from getting infected from someone who, either is breathing, or coughing, or sneezing, or singing or whatever it is in which the droplets or the aerosols go out. So masks work, Fauci added.

---

Now that a known authority has finally repeated this advice it is very clear: Everyone should wear masks.Get an N95 mask if you can. Cloth masks and surgical masks are much less effective, especially for small droplets and aerosols.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Typo.

Past their "best before" date.