Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
1 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,819 Year: 3,076/9,624 Month: 921/1,588 Week: 104/223 Day: 2/13 Hour: 0/1


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   What have we accomplished?
ringo
Member (Idle past 412 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


Message 91 of 263 (879059)
07-10-2020 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 87 by Phat
07-10-2020 2:29 PM


Re: Airing The Arguments
Phat writes:
it is evident to me that jar has no evidence that his interpretation of the plain reading of the Bible coupled with his judgement of the message of mainstream apologetics is any more likely to be the way that life will ultimately play out.
The issue was only about the apologists. Of course we DO have evidence that the apologists are liars: the Bible.
Phat writes:
Evidence for what?
That the apologists are lying. Why can't you keep track of the plot?
Phat writes:
It makes one wonder why you are so spiteful towards Biblical Christians.
"Biblical Christians" have nothing to do with it. I'm just trying to defend the Bible and decent human behaviour against your attacks.
Phat writes:
The aura of exclusivity?
The lies about exclusivity are disgusting, yes.
Phat writes:
If God was actually like the God that the apologists market, would you obey Him or would you oppose Him? Why or why not?
I've answered that question for you before. We need to do what's right, not just blindly follow some alien overlord. The god you make up is worth no more to me than the satan you make up is worth to you.

"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
 Message 87 by Phat, posted 07-10-2020 2:29 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Kleinman
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 92 of 263 (879062)
07-10-2020 4:48 PM
Reply to: Message 90 by AZPaul3
07-10-2020 3:21 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
Kleinman writes:
... the ignorance and delusions of the fish-to-mammal aficionados is harming people with drug-resistant infections and failed cancer treatments.
AZPaul3 writes:
Really? How so? Can you point to the studies in the discipline, other than your own, that detail this harm and its cause? Can you show us independent evidence, not from you since you are a known crackpot, where the modern theory of evolution harms people with drug-resistant infections and failed cancer treatments?
Some studies from Nature and NEJM would be nice. Got any?
Don't any of you fish-to-mammal aficionados read anything beyond fossil tea-leaf reading journals and Mad magazine? Of course, you won't find any papers explaining the physics and mathematics of evolution in Nature and NEJM. That's why drug-resistant infections and failed cancer treatments continue to be a problem. If we had to depend on the fish-to-mammal aficionados to explain the physics and mathematics of evolution it would never happen. You are just too blind to see it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 90 by AZPaul3, posted 07-10-2020 3:21 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 93 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-10-2020 4:58 PM Kleinman has not replied
 Message 94 by AZPaul3, posted 07-10-2020 5:52 PM Kleinman has replied

Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4344
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.9


(3)
Message 93 of 263 (879063)
07-10-2020 4:58 PM
Reply to: Message 92 by Kleinman
07-10-2020 4:48 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
Kleinman writes:
fish-to-mammal aficionados
Man, you are boring!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq

This message is a reply to:
 Message 92 by Kleinman, posted 07-10-2020 4:48 PM Kleinman has not replied

AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 94 of 263 (879065)
07-10-2020 5:52 PM
Reply to: Message 92 by Kleinman
07-10-2020 4:48 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
Of course, you won't find any papers explaining the physics and mathematics of evolution in Nature and NEJM. That's why drug-resistant infections and failed cancer treatments continue to be a problem.
So no one with any intellect and specific knowledge on the subject shares your delusions. Like we have been saying, the rest of the world rejects your silly math manipulations and your errant conclusions.
That means you are a crackpot. But, we already knew that.
Here's the math to prove it:
Pr(Xn+1=x | X1=x1, X2=x2, , Xn=xn) = Kleinman is a crackpot
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 92 by Kleinman, posted 07-10-2020 4:48 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 95 by Kleinman, posted 07-10-2020 6:09 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 97 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2020 1:08 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Kleinman
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 95 of 263 (879066)
07-10-2020 6:09 PM
Reply to: Message 94 by AZPaul3
07-10-2020 5:52 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
Kleinman writes:
Of course, you won't find any papers explaining the physics and mathematics of evolution in Nature and NEJM. That's why drug-resistant infections and failed cancer treatments continue to be a problem.
AZPaul3 writes:
So no one with any intellect and specific knowledge on the subject shares your delusions. Like we have been saying, the rest of the world rejects your silly math manipulations and your errant conclusions.
So you think that the fish-to-mammal aficionados are the ones with the intellect? Where's the fish-to-mammal aficionados' mathematical explanation of the Kishony and Lenski experiments? Where are all the fish-to-mammal aficionados with any mathematical skills? Why don't you show your mathematical expertise and use the Markov chain mathematics and show that you are related to a banana?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 94 by AZPaul3, posted 07-10-2020 5:52 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 96 by AZPaul3, posted 07-10-2020 10:43 PM Kleinman has not replied

AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 96 of 263 (879071)
07-10-2020 10:43 PM
Reply to: Message 95 by Kleinman
07-10-2020 6:09 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
Why don't you show your mathematical expertise and use the Markov chain mathematics and show that you are related to a banana?
From my Message 1821 earlier this morning:
quote:
I don't have to.
Others, using much more accurate math and methods than you, have already shown how we all descended (recently) from common ancestors with monkeys and (less recently) from common ancestors with fish and (way back) from common ancestors with all plants, and, yes, Kleinman, that would include bananas which are classified in the kingdom Plantae which is a sister kingdom to Animalia, both of which shared common ancestry with Eukaryota.
Like Tanypteryx said in Message 93 you're getting boring.
Bookmark this message. When you feel compelled to ask this same inane thing yet again just refer to this message for your answer.

Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 95 by Kleinman, posted 07-10-2020 6:09 PM Kleinman has not replied

Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 4344
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.9


Message 97 of 263 (879072)
07-11-2020 1:08 AM
Reply to: Message 94 by AZPaul3
07-10-2020 5:52 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
So no one with any intellect and specific knowledge on the subject shares your delusions. Like we have been saying, the rest of the world rejects your silly math manipulations and your errant conclusions.
Funny how peer review works isn't it?
The crackpots never understand that part.

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq

This message is a reply to:
 Message 94 by AZPaul3, posted 07-10-2020 5:52 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 98 by AZPaul3, posted 07-11-2020 1:29 AM Tanypteryx has not replied
 Message 99 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 1:51 AM Tanypteryx has not replied

AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 98 of 263 (879073)
07-11-2020 1:29 AM
Reply to: Message 97 by Tanypteryx
07-11-2020 1:08 AM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
The crackpots never understand that part.
But you didn't say that in Markov Chain or Kishony and Lenski so it can't be true.

Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 97 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2020 1:08 AM Tanypteryx has not replied

PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 99 of 263 (879074)
07-11-2020 1:51 AM
Reply to: Message 97 by Tanypteryx
07-11-2020 1:08 AM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
The papers written by Alan Kleinman have none of the lunacy posted by Kleinman.
You won’t find stuff like:
So, according to Jukes-Cantor calculation, if you compare a single gene from two different species with a single base difference between them and a mutation rate of e-8, you get 50,000,000 generations separating the two species. So, ding-dong, what if you compare a collection of 10 equivalent genes at the same time, each with only a single base difference, that means 500,000,000 generations separating the two species. Now humans and chimps have more than 20,000 coding genes and very few exactly match. So, even if they differ by a single base at each coding genetic locus, you now have 20,000*50,000,000 generations separating the two species. And that is just 1.5% of the genome that you are comparing. Now, include the regulatory portion of the genome in your analysis which is a much larger portion of the genome. How many generations separating humans and chimpanzees?
( Message 228 )
Nor will you find anything supporting this assertion:
The problem with the Markov Chain models given in the Wikipedia link above is that they are assuming the transition matrix is stationary and that the evolutionary process goes to equilibrium (that is the distribution of bases goes to equilibrium). What this means is the frequency of A, C, G, and T's go to 0.25. That certainly isn't happening in either the Kishony or Lenski experiments. My next paper will explain how to correct these models so that they predict DNA evolution.
( Message 94 )
Since it’s based on a failure to understand DNA evolution or how the models are used (and it isn’t to predict DNA evolution).
Edited by PaulK, : Fix tag

This message is a reply to:
 Message 97 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2020 1:08 AM Tanypteryx has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 100 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 8:56 AM PaulK has replied

Kleinman
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 100 of 263 (879085)
07-11-2020 8:56 AM
Reply to: Message 99 by PaulK
07-11-2020 1:51 AM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
PaulK writes:
The papers written by Alan Kleinman have none of the lunacy posted by Kleinman.
You won’t find stuff like:
Kleinman writes:
So, according to Jukes-Cantor calculation, if you compare a single gene from two different species with a single base difference between them and a mutation rate of e-8, you get 50,000,000 generations separating the two species. So, ding-dong, what if you compare a collection of 10 equivalent genes at the same time, each with only a single base difference, that means 500,000,000 generations separating the two species. Now humans and chimps have more than 20,000 coding genes and very few exactly match. So, even if they differ by a single base at each coding genetic locus, you now have 20,000*50,000,000 generations separating the two species. And that is just 1.5% of the genome that you are comparing. Now, include the regulatory portion of the genome in your analysis which is a much larger portion of the genome. How many generations separating humans and chimpanzees?
PaulK writes:
( Message 228 )
Nor will you find anything supporting this assertion:
Kleinman writes:
The problem with the Markov Chain models given in the Wikipedia link above is that they are assuming the transition matrix is stationary and that the evolutionary process goes to equilibrium (that is the distribution of bases goes to equilibrium). What this means is the frequency of A, C, G, and T's go to 0.25. That certainly isn't happening in either the Kishony or Lenski experiments. My next paper will explain how to correct these models so that they predict DNA evolution.
PaulK writes:
( Message 94 )
Since it’s based on a failure to understand DNA evolution or how the models are used (and it isn’t to predict DNA evolution).
Your problem PaulK is that you have neither the mathematical training not the skills to recognize the mathematical relationship between the Markov chain models of DNA evolution and the "at least one" solution which was published here:
The basic science and mathematics of random mutation and natural selection
And I'm not going to explain that mathematical relationship to you here. You will have to wait until that paper is published. I've given you more than enough hints for you to figure it out yourself if you had the slightest skills in probability theory but you don't. But if you want, you can use the Jukes-Cantor model to show how closely related to bananas you are, we would be amused by that claim. None of the fish-to-mammals aficionados will be skeptical of that claim.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 99 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 1:51 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 101 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 10:34 AM Kleinman has replied

PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 101 of 263 (879096)
07-11-2020 10:34 AM
Reply to: Message 100 by Kleinman
07-11-2020 8:56 AM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
quote:
Your problem PaulK is that you have neither the mathematical training not the skills to recognize the mathematical relationship between the Markov chain models of DNA evolution and the "at least one" solution which was published here
Think what you like about my mathematical ability. My understanding is quite sufficient to see that both the claims I quoted are obviously false and will not be published in a peer reviewed paper. If you are even writing such a paper.
Whether you refuse to defend those claims because you know that they are false or you fear exposing your own lack of ability doesn’t matter either.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 100 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 8:56 AM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 102 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 11:00 AM PaulK has replied

Kleinman
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 102 of 263 (879097)
07-11-2020 11:00 AM
Reply to: Message 101 by PaulK
07-11-2020 10:34 AM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
Kleinman writes:
Your problem PaulK is that you have neither the mathematical training not the skills to recognize the mathematical relationship between the Markov chain models of DNA evolution and the "at least one" solution which was published here
PaulK writes:
Think what you like about my mathematical ability. My understanding is quite sufficient to see that both the claims I quoted are obviously false and will not be published in a peer reviewed paper. If you are even writing such a paper.
You've shown what your mathematical capabilities are, you have none. That's why you think you are related to bananas.
PaulK writes:
Whether you refuse to defend those claims because you know that they are false or you fear exposing your own lack of ability doesn’t matter either.
I defend my mathematical claims with empirical evidence. You can start with the Kishony and Lenski evolutionary experiments. You prove your claims of the mathematics of Markov chains show you are related to bananas. That's strong empirical evidence you are presenting. Are all you fish-to-mammals aficionados so mathematically incompetent? At least Taq could figure out that it takes 3e9 replications for every possible substitution to occur on average once in every site of a genome for a mutation rate of e-9. Why stop there? You fish-to-mammals aficionados might actually learn something about DNA evolution.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 101 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 10:34 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 103 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 1:23 PM Kleinman has replied

PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 103 of 263 (879104)
07-11-2020 1:23 PM
Reply to: Message 102 by Kleinman
07-11-2020 11:00 AM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
quote:
I defend my mathematical claims with empirical evidence
Well let’s see the empirical evidence that supports this nonsense, shall we?
So, according to Jukes-Cantor calculation, if you compare a single gene from two different species with a single base difference between them and a mutation rate of e-8, you get 50,000,000 generations separating the two species. So, ding-dong, what if you compare a collection of 10 equivalent genes at the same time, each with only a single base difference, that means 500,000,000 generations separating the two species. Now humans and chimps have more than 20,000 coding genes and very few exactly match. So, even if they differ by a single base at each coding genetic locus, you now have 20,000*50,000,000 generations separating the two species. And that is just 1.5% of the genome that you are comparing. Now, include the regulatory portion of the genome in your analysis which is a much larger portion of the genome. How many generations separating humans and chimpanzees?
( Message 228 )
Explain how Jukes-Cantor leads to the conclusion that 1 base difference in a gene requires 50,000,000 generations and how you extrapolate that to 500,000,000 generations to get 1 base difference in each of 10 genes.
Or don’t bother because the mathematics is quite enough to show that it is nonsense. And if you have the competence you claim you know that.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 102 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 11:00 AM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 104 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 2:02 PM PaulK has replied

Kleinman
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 104 of 263 (879105)
07-11-2020 2:02 PM
Reply to: Message 103 by PaulK
07-11-2020 1:23 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
PaulK writes:
Explain how Jukes-Cantor leads to the conclusion that 1 base difference in a gene requires 50,000,000 generations and how you extrapolate that to 500,000,000 generations to get 1 base difference in each of 10 genes.
Or don’t bother because the mathematics is quite enough to show that it is nonsense. And if you have the competence you claim you know that.
I've posted the links multiple times which explain the Jukes-Cantor model. Here's the one which explains how you derive the Jukes-Cantor model and that for a mutation rate of e-8, it takes 50,000,000 generations for just a single base in a single gene:
Jukes Cantor Model of DNA substitution
They do a step by step derivation of the Jukes-Cantor, Markov chain model. Then go down in the link and find this line:
Floyd Reed writes:
If we plug in realistic mutation rates, like 10^{-8} we get this kind of curve.
You get this plot:
That is the probability of the particular mutation occurring as a function of the number of generations. Actually, if you understood this math, you would understand that is wrong. It is not the number of generations that should be plotted but the number of replications. That probability will be close to 1 at about 1e8 replications. Otherwise, the rest of the derivation is ok. Since you don't understand the mathematics of Markov chains and joint probabilities of random events, you will not understand that each base difference will require another 1/(mutation rate) replications. That's why it take 10*50,000,000 replications (for a mutation rate of e-8) to do the accounting for 10 base differences between 2 replicators. Study and understand this link and you will understand the Jukes-Cantor model. But this model is only valid for an evolutionary process of one mutation at a time in a sequential evolutionary process. It will not work if more than a single mutation is required to improve fitness. In other words, this model will predict the behavior of the Kishony experiment if only a single drug is used and the step increase in concentration only requires a single mutation for adaptation. And since the mutation rate is e-9 for that empirical experiment, it will take 5*(1/e-9) replications to give a fully drug-resistant variant. But, if Kishony were to use 2 drugs, or the increase in drug concentration requires 2 or more mutations to improve fitness, the Jukes-Cantor model will not work. You will have to wait to I publish my next paper if you want to know how that math is done. Of course, you won't understand that either.
Edited by Kleinman, : Typo error

This message is a reply to:
 Message 103 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 1:23 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 105 by PaulK, posted 07-11-2020 2:48 PM Kleinman has replied

PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(2)
Message 105 of 263 (879106)
07-11-2020 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 104 by Kleinman
07-11-2020 2:02 PM


Re: Self Serving Beliefs
For the benefit of anyone actually interested in understanding the model. I’ll answer. But thanks for proving your incompetence.
quote:
I've posted the links multiple times which explain the Jukes-Cantor model. Here's the one which explains how you derive the Jukes-Cantor model and that for a mutation rate of e-8, it takes 50,000,000 generations for just a single base in a single gene
Wrong. It takes 50,000,000 generations to get to the equilibrium state, which is not a single mutations. To quote from the article:
... at equilibrium the distance between two sequences, that began as identical, is 75%. In other words, just by chance of the sites will happen to match because there are four nucleotides to choose from
quote:
That is the probability of the particular mutation occurring as a function of the number of generations.
Wrong. That is the probability of a base being different from the original state, accounting for the fact that it could mutate back. And it applies to all bases, not just one.
quote:
Actually, if you understood this math, you would understand that is wrong. It is not the number of generations that should be plotted but the number of replications.
No, it isn’t wrong in that either. If you understood the model you would know that,
quote:
That probability will be close to 1 at about 1e8 replication
No, the probability never rises above 0.75, as can be clearly seen if you look at the graph. See the quote from the article above.
quote:
Since you don't understand the mathematics of Markov chains and joint probabilities of random events, you will not understand that each base difference will require another 1/(mutation rate) replications.
In the model all bases are mutating independently at the same time, so after 50,000,000 generations each base is at equilibrium and has a 0.75 probability of being different from the original state. The idea that all but one base will remain the same is vanishingly unlikely. Feel free to do the calculation if you really feel like it.
quote:
That's why it take 10*50,000,000 replications (for a mutation rate of e-8) to do the accounting for 10 base differences between 2 replicators.
That’s why it clearly takes much less time than that. Though it will depend on the genome size.
quote:
Study and understand this link and you will understand the Jukes-Cantor model.
Indeed - don’t be like Kleinman who didn’t study it and got it all wrong
quote:
But this model is only valid for an evolutionary process of one mutation at a time in a sequential evolutionary process
By which you mean that your assertions are only valid in such a case. But that is obviously not what Jukes-Cantor is modelling.
Failing to understand what the Jukes-Cantor model is actually modelling is bad enough. But the mathematical errors are also severe and fatal. Too bad you don’t understand the mathematics of Markov chains.
Edited by PaulK, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 104 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 2:02 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 106 by Kleinman, posted 07-11-2020 4:21 PM PaulK has replied

Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024