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Author | Topic: Biden Our Time: All things Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
The advantage is usually with the incumbent. In fact, voters very rarely vote in a President of one party, then switch to a President of another party, then switch back to the original party after only four years.
For example, George H. W. Bush doesn't really count, because he was the last 4 years of a 12 year stretch where one party held the White House. Carter doesn't count either, because he was in the weird circumstance of running against a President who hadn't been voted in as either President or Vice President. Just look at the intervals of party control of the White House. Every interval (except President Carter) has been at least eight years going back as far as President Grover Cleveland! (and even he eventually got 8 years in total) Obama: 8 yearsBush: 8 years Clinton: 8 years Bush/Reagan: 12 years Carter: 4 years Ford/Nixon: 8 years Johnson/Kennedy: 8 years Eisenhower: 8 years Truman/Roosevelt: 20 years Hoover/Coolidge/Harding: 12 years Wilson: 8 years Taft/Roosevelt/McKinley: 16 years
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
Yup, as President Obama himself said, "You're likeable enough."
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
I was responding to the remark about President Obama being the worst President ever. I disagreed with that.
Here's an example of a worse President: Lyndon Johnson oversaw the greatest failure of American domestic policy, the "Great Society" . . . cities rotting from Cabrini-Green to Pruitt-Igoe . . . long hot summers . . . Watts and LA burning . . . 101st Airborne sent to Detroit . . . The Moynihan Report . . . guns and butter . . . inflation ignited . . . chickens coming home to roost at the 1968 Democrat convention . . . Lyndon Johnson oversaw the greatest failure of American foreign policy . . . Tonkin Gulf Resolution . . . Pleiku . . . Khe Sanh . . . The Pentagon Papers . . . Tet . . . Lyndon Johnson was personally corrupt . . . Box 13 in Jim Wells County . . . cash in paper bags from businessmen "buying ads" on his wife's radio and TV stations . . . Bobby Baker . . . LBJ Ranch acquired on a "government salary" . . . Abe Fortas and the 1948 Senatorial primary . . . By the way, if you're trying to convince people not to vote for President Trump, I'll give you a tip: don't call them idiots for having the temerity to disagree with you!
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
All I've said is it will "will keep popping up". Do you disagree?
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
That, of course, is the whole point. As Sullivan put it
quote:
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
The impeachment was a bad tactical move, it just highlighted the possibility that there was something about the Biden family's business dealings that they didn't want publicized.
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
He boxed himself in promising to have a female VP nominee. Not that I'm against women running for office! But with all the urban unrest he will also be pressured to nominate a person of color.
That's fine, as far as it goes, but he also has the problem that he would be by far the oldest and frailest President-elect, older on inauguration day 2021 than President Reagan was when he left office! So Mr. Biden has to pick a running mate with experience and connections to step into his place if he should follow in Yuri Andropov's footsteps. The selection of a running mate is said to be the first big decision of any (would-be) Presidency. There's a strong possibility that he's made a good decision impossible to make.
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
But could Mr. Biden shoot that amoeba on 5th Avenue and not lose voters?
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
I suppose we'll have to see how the voters decide on the various scandals...
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
I'm sure there is no shortage of idiots considering voting for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump (or Howie Hawkins or Jo Jorgensen or Andrew Yang for that matter).
But if your aim is to persuade me, then you're going about it the wrong way, digressing into the Clintonesque ("basket of deplorables") or Obaman (bitter clingers) style. People tend to react negatively to that: if his supporters are such lowlives, what does that say about the candidate! On the other hand, if your goal really is just being insulting then you need to work on more clever phrasing (consult Christopher Hitchens' God is not Great for some particularly juicy rhetoric). Have a nice day!
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
Indeed? Well, the more people like you, the more likely Trump is to be re-elected, no?
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
Well, there's always weird possibilities in the presidential sweepstakes.
Think of this, in, say, 1998, most of the people eventually to be elected President or even running for President in the next couple of decades would have been dismissed as obscure or fringe. Joe Biden fit right in with the extremely obscure Democrat mainstream, pro-Defense of Marriage, anti-Busing, political hackery. But now . . . the days of seriousness, of Roosevelt, of Eisenhower, of Johnson (dreadful, but at least serious!), of Reagan, are far in the past, so who knows what may happen in November?
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
Carried to 100% that would indeed be true. But that's not what I said, of course.
I was referring to the marginal case where increasing the number of people with your emphasis on repelling possible Biden voters rather than attracting them might just decrease the number of Biden voters so much that the net result would be a loss of voters for Mr. Biden. Don't get me wrong, I can read the opinion polls and can see that Biden, four months out, is leading. And if he does win, it certainly appears he'll be a better President than any Democrat in my lifetime. But you're wasting all these opportunities to persuade me, rather than confirm the depressing image of current Biden supporters.
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
Oh indeed, and I am glad that he has changed his positions as he scented the direction of the wind. But he still has to run on his record in addition to his promises.
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Sarah Bellum Member (Idle past 624 days) Posts: 826 Joined: |
You said
quote:and I agree that's true. But I was talking about having more people like you, rather than having everyone like you (a rather unlikely case). Let me break it down for you with a simple case. Suppose there were one more person like you. That would be one more vote for Vice President Biden. But if, as seems likely, that one more person were to "debate" in your style it might just persuade more than one voter to switch their vote to President Trump. Remember, President Trump is in the White House because he persuaded quite a few people who voted for President Obama to vote for him instead of Hillary Clinton. Vice President Biden has to perform a similar task if he wishes an inauguration as a belated seventy-eighth birthday present.
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