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Author Topic:   What about the political trends in the states? Anything catch your eye?
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 1 of 15 (884002)
01-20-2021 10:52 PM


Biden almost lost the electoral college despite a 4.4 percent win in the popular vote.

Arizona, Georgia , and Wisconsin were won (by Biden) by a total of 43,000 votes. Take those away and it is a 269 to 269 tie. Normally Republicans will win with a tie in the Electoral College, due to the House district breakdown. But, the amazing Democratic party performance in Georgia partly offsets the Electoral College alarm bell, as does the rate win in Arizona .

Bigger problems, for Democrats, are the 1% wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These states are trending away from Democrats and might be considered very slightly Republican now. The 3 states used to vote more Democratic than the national vote, but they sure don't now. Additionally, North Carolina still seems to perform like the Republicans are going to be considered the stronger party, though Biden's 1.3% loss wasn't bad in and of itself; it WAS bad considering the fact that the political winds were blowing strongly in Democrats favor this time.

Florida went for Republicans by 3.4% when Buden won nationwide by over 4.4%!

But the good news for the Democrats remains the razor thin wins in Georgia and Arizona, which were won by major swings from previous presidential elections. The good news is not just the wins themselves, but the Democratic performance in both states compared to the national average. Only about 4 percent worse, which means Democrats are getting closer to being able to win these states in the next election (an election which will see Democrats face a much tougher Republican candidate than the pathetic Donald Trump). The problem is that the 2 states are going to still be Republican leaning, and possibly strongly leaning toward the GOP if Hispanics are going to keep trending more toward the grand party.

Aside from Arizona and Georgia, Texas saw Democrats hold Trump to a 5.6% win (Obama lost by 12 in 2008 and 17 in 2012, while Hillary lost by 9 in 2016), which looks like stunningly good news for future Democratic prospects, or does it? Democrats are just not winning Hispanics by a margin that ensures continuing performance improvement. Democrats, despite Trump's poisoned presence, only won about 60% of the Hispanic vote. It is doubtful that the party will do any better, once Trump is off ballot, intact they will probably do worse - possibly much worse. The same can probably be said of future Democratic party performance among the wealthy and educated voters who have swung toward Democrats so strongly just to stop Trump the Republican - NOT necessarily to beat Republican candidates generally.

Something else for Democrats:

The almost irrelevant nugget that I noticed is that Alaska looks like it might be considered a state trending toward a much more competitive political environment than ever. Biden only lost by 10.06% or 53% to 43%. By far the closest Democrats have come in my lifetime. What trends are worth looking at there? First, whites seem to have fallen to a spec less than 60% of the population. They were almost 2/3 in 2010. But the religious belief factor is stunning, to me. Alaska has a population that is 47% non religious, which means it is tied for the 6th least religious state (Vermont is 59% non religious, New Hampshire 55%, Maine 51%, Massachusetts 49%, Oregon 48%, Washington 47% as of 2017). These large numbers of non religious people are quite a trend from the past , and it is especially true the further back you compare.

Alaska might just be considered a new target of opportunity for the Democrats, but there is one big problem for the party. Males outnumber females by about 52.5% to 47.5%, and that is probably the flip from the national average. A state like Maine has a female to male voter ratio of about 3:2, and just about every other state has more female voters than male ones. I assume Alaska is about 50/50.

Thats my babble.


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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 2 of 15 (884177)
01-24-2021 9:35 PM


Texas Rio Grand valley. Politico reported 12 hours ago. Democrats terrified at future
(I THink I will pass on the impeachment discussion, it will play itself out soon enough)

The new Politico article is titled:

House majority may hinge on Tio Grande Valley.

There are 4 districts in the region, 1 held by a Republican , 3 by the Democrats .

The Republican held district has been a roller coaster. Full of swings and surprises since 1992. It is district 23.

District 23 was held by Avraham Kazen, a white, for decades, until the Hispanic Bustamante defeated him in the Democratic primary in 1986. Winning the Democratic primary was a free ticket to a general election win. The district was almost entirely Democratic in registration and voting.

Except until the 1992 general election. Despite Clinton defeating Bush by double digits, a Republican named Henry Bonilla won a major upset, and even social issues can't explain this unexplainable win ( You won't find this factoid mentioned anywhere on the internet, but Bonilla was actually Pro Choice for the first 4 to 8 years of his 14 year congressional career. I was a political junkie back then, so I can tell you what you won't be able to find out, otherwise, now).

Bonilla won easily but the district remained Democratic leaning his entire career. In 2000, Bush only won the district, against Gore, with 53%, though he won the state 61% to 37%. It was by far the most competitive district Bush won, in fact, it was a Democratic district, despite Bonilla.

Bonilla lost in 2006 but the circumstances were odd.

A fairly liberal Democrat, representing the neighboring district, since 1996, named Ciro Rodriguez, got defeated in the Democratic primary by a very conservative Democrat, Henry Cuellar. Cuellar is, in 2021, the last anti-abortion Democrat left, though he otherwise votes with his party nowadays. But in his freshman term (Jan 2005 to 2007), it was extremely difficult to find any major vote where he did not side with Republicans. In 2006, Rodriguez attempted a political comeback, and it led to a Democratic primary rematch from 2 years earlier, when Rodriguez was the incumbent being challenged by Cuellar. The roles were reversed in 2006, but the vote results were the same: Cuellar won, Rodriguez lost. The only difference was that it was a landslide for Cuellar in 2006 .

Rodriguez was not too shaken, apparantly. He managed to make a quick move to the neighboring district, the 23rd, represented by Bonilla, and was somehow able to legally run in a 2nd district the same year. Nationally Republicans lost the Hispanic vote by a 68 to 30 margin in 2006, and 2006 was a disaster year for Republicans. Rodriguez beat Cuellar in the 66 percent Hispanic district .

He lost it in 2010 to a Hispanic Republican.

Democrats took the district in 2012.

A black Republican won it in 2014 and just left congress weeks ago. Will Hurd retired.

Republicans held the seat in November.

Obama won the district by 1 percent, 50 to 49, in 2008.

Romney won 50.7% to 48.1% in 2012, though the Democratic challenger beat the 1 term GOP incumbent.

Hillary Clinton won narrowly in 2016.

Trump won narrowly in 2020.

This is a district that covers most of the border with Mexico.

It is about 68% Hispanic and 24% not Hispanic white.

Why did I spend so much space on the single district 23?

Because it was not covered in the Politico article I referenced. And it is probably because it is somewhat outside the theme of the article, sort of. The article was covering the three Democratic held districts that made a violent political swing away from Democrats this past November. See the article.

( The 23 has been a pretty evenly divided district for at least a few decades, and especially the last decade and a half or longer)


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 3 of 15 (884178)
01-24-2021 10:25 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by LamarkNewAge
01-24-2021 9:35 PM


Re: Texas Rio Grand valley. Politico reported 12 hours ago. Democrats terrified at future
Just to put the Democratic party performance in perspective.

One of these districts is fully 96% Hispanic!

But Biden was only able to win by about 4% over Trump.

This is a United States congressional district, which means that we are talking about an 800,000 voter context.

Democrats are going to have to deal with the Republican party being looked at in the context of the overall party with a much closer focus.

What do I mean? Well, I know that a lot of New York Hispanics have long been ignorant of just how amazingly pro immigration past prominent Republicans, have been. Before Trump reared his head in June of 2015, I can recall countless instances where Puerto Ricans would really get shocked when I told them about Ronald Reagan, and Puerto Ricans are IMO a pretty informed people, otherwise. Many would run to me and make it a point that they overheard my comment about Reagan being pro illegal immigration. They were like, " I heard you say what? What is your source?"

Post Trump, Republicans are going to look pretty good to Hispanics, and I say that understanding that Hispanics, largely, aren't obsessed with immigration.

It is just a focus issue. A sharp, high contrast look at what is really going on. What has been, what is, and what will.

Trump has provided a head on collision with the party generally, and the wreck has caused people to look at what led to the disaster. It was a party that had been pretty good on immigration, compared to the perception. Trump has been bad, especially rhetorically speaking (his policy has been fairly bad as well).

That is my take.


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 4 of 15 (884182)
01-25-2021 6:44 AM


Miami city is shocking.
I was just looking at the July 1, 2019 census estimates.

It is a city that is only 11% white.

72.7% Hispanic

15.8% black

89% non white.

Used to be a city where Democrats always won by a large margin, no matter how strong the Republican candidate was.

Trump only lost 53 to 46.

Crap!


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 5 of 15 (884185)
01-25-2021 8:56 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by LamarkNewAge
01-25-2021 6:44 AM


And both Miami city Democratic congressmen were defeated.
Gop gains 2 seats just there

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AnswersInGenitals
Member
Posts: 616
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 6 of 15 (884191)
01-25-2021 7:41 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by LamarkNewAge
01-20-2021 10:52 PM


Trump to GOP: “Rock, meet the hard place!”
Trump has presented the GOP with four scenarios for the near term:

Sc 1) Trump forms a third party, the ‘Patriot’ party. He has talked of doing this in retaliation against the Republicans who didn’t support his attempt to overturn the election. Remember when in the first Republican candidate debate of the 2016 presidential race, the 17 candidates were asked if they would form a third party if they didn’t win the nomination, 16 said definitely ‘no’, but one, Trump of course, was very equivocal. If Trump does this, it will not only scuttle any chances the Republicans have for the 2024 presidential election, but many of his most ardent political sycophants will probably join him, splitting down ballot votes as well. Even his Republican politician supporters who stay with that party will be put into a bind as to which candidate they endorse. Lindsey, Teddy, Josh, et. al. will lose votes whichever way they go. Trump has recently disavowed this third party story, but we all know he changes direction faster than a rooster weather vane in a hurricane.

Sc 2) Trump stays in the Republican party and starts campaigning for and wins the 2024 presidential nomination. This will lose the Republicans a huge mass of the independent vote and many non-Trumpian Republican votes in both the presidential and down ballot races. Many of these voters will just not vote at all and the Republicans will have a major get-out-the-vote problem.

Sc 3) Trump stays in the Republican party and starts campaigning for and loses the 2024 presidential nomination. Now the Republicans lose the Trump core supporters - maybe still 10 to 20 million strong - again both in the presidential and down ballot races, and again a big drop in voter turnout.

Sc 4) Enough Republicans in the senate, aware of the above three scenarios, vote to convict Trump and disallow him from future national political office. This again will lose them the core Trump supporter votes and will be disastrous in the 2022 midterms. Might even get a few Republican field offices attacked. And Trump would no doubt challenge this through endless court battles bringing his brilliant cadre of lawyers to bear.

Note to GOP: “As ye sow, so shall ye reap.”


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PaulK
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Posts: 16873
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 7 of 15 (884195)
01-26-2021 12:37 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by AnswersInGenitals
01-25-2021 7:41 PM


Re: Trump to GOP: “Rock, meet the hard place!”
Trump starting his own party might be the best thing for the Republican Party. They have too many crazies at the State level and Trump would siphon off a lot of them. The Texas GOP have endorsed QAnon. Oregon GOP is trying to pretend that the insurrectionists at the Capitol were antifa - even though the vice-chairwoman of the Oregon Young Republicans is one of the rioters arrested. Hawaii GOP have promoted QAnon and a Holocaust denier.

It will hurt, in that it will cost them votes and power, but the alternative is to sell the soul of the party out to lunatics who want to destroy freedom in the US.


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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5838
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 8 of 15 (884197)
01-26-2021 2:22 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by PaulK
01-26-2021 12:37 PM


Re: Trump to GOP: “Rock, meet the hard place!”
It will hurt, in that it will cost them votes and power, but the alternative is to sell the soul of the party out to lunatics who want to destroy freedom in the US.

Better to rule in hell than to serve in heaven.

Selling their souls to the devil is the republican modus operandi.

They will endorse ANYthing, no matter how vile (open insurrection, systemic racism, sacrifice the poor for the profit of the rich) as long as they can maintain a power base from it.

Remember, trumpublicans are evil and run the party. They don't care.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

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jar
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Posts: 33343
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.0


(2)
Message 9 of 15 (884198)
01-26-2021 4:59 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by AZPaul3
01-26-2021 2:22 PM


Re: Trump to GOP: “Rock, meet the hard place!”
I Trump gets sent to jail and writes his manifesto it will be called "Mine Mine!"

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 10 of 15 (884216)
01-28-2021 8:13 PM


I still wonder if Trump has made the old Republican party look good.
Asians always voted for Republicans ( George H W Bush won 74% of the Asian vote against Clinyon in 1992) until the dreadful period of Republican presidential lunatics began. The most dangerous Republican nominee ever, John McCain (2008), managed to turn over 60 percent of Asians against him, after Bush won 60% support in 2004. A 60 to 40 flip from one election to the next.

Romney( a warmonger, though not as dangerous as McCain) managed to present the most anti immigration policy statements of any politician in our lifetimes, while attracting a lot of white moderate support, and winning educated white voters in droves.

He also managed to loose Asians 74 to 25.

Asians don't like crazy candidates. That much is obvious.

Trump just lost the Asian vote 61 to 35.

Republicans are going to have to defeat the populists ( Trumpists) and the crazy warmonger wing ( Romney, McCain, Cheney , etc.).

The Rand Paul libertarian wing is a possible contender (Rand Paul was the second most disloyal Senate Republican; siding with him on only 69% of votes), as Paul and Trump found some powerful common ground on war and peace issues. The problem for Paul is that he lacks Trumps amazing ability to talk in codes, which makes it possible for an anti war policy to not turn off Republican voters who don't want that type of a peaceful administration. Trump knows how to disguise his anti war vision behind code words and bombastic rhetoric which use an almost bellicose-like presentation.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 11 of 15 (884217)
01-28-2021 8:33 PM


The mainstream media says that ONLY Trump could hold Biden to 79% of black male vote
(Trump lost blacks only 87 to 12, and black males 79 to 19. That was fairly groundbreaking and makes me wonder if the results were a type of performance that only Trump could get. But on to Hispanics again)

The media spin also says only Trump could get the "high" level of Hispanic support he got ( he lost Texas Hispanics 58 to 40 and national Hispanics 66 to 32).

I think the media needs to look past the 2008 McCain 67 to 31 loss, among Hispanic voters, the 2012 Romney 71 to 27 loss, and Trumps own 70 to 28 loss in 2016.

Bush won 31 to 35 percent of Hispanics in 2000, and 39 to 44 percent in 2004.

Texas Republicans often get around 40% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans might be able to get over 40% regularly, if there is a return to normalcy ( must go back to the pre-Romney days for sure, and preferably even further back), somehow.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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 Message 12 by Phat, posted 01-29-2021 8:37 AM LamarkNewAge has responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15442
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 12 of 15 (884218)
01-29-2021 8:37 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by LamarkNewAge
01-28-2021 8:33 PM


Re: The mainstream media says that ONLY Trump could hold Biden to 79% of black male vote
these are al;l past trends. Trump is History. Is there anything new to say?

Edited by Phat, : No reason given.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
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AnswersInGenitals
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Posts: 616
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 13 of 15 (884221)
01-29-2021 4:11 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by Phat
01-29-2021 8:37 AM


Re: The mainstream media says that ONLY Trump could hold Biden to 79% of black male vote
Phat writes:

Trump is History.

Apparently Kevin McCarthy would disagree. He’s been spending time a Mar-a-Lago canoodling with Trump, presumably strategizing on how the Republicans can retake the house in 2022.

The Republicans have the option of continuing to exalt Trump and his brand of Republicanism and thus keep hold of his core supporters but risk loosing independents and moderate Republicans, or forsake Trump and Trumpism to hold onto the independents/moderates but losing the core Trumpers. It looks like they have solidly chosen the former option, deciding it’s easier to find some way to convince the indies/mods to stick with the Republicans than the other way around. After all, the core Trumpers are quite fanatical and unforgiving. Either way, their chances of winning many house seats seem pretty slim. Their best chance would be if Biden's administration is a serious failure. But even then, Biden could make a pretty convincing case that Trump and the Republicans left him with a major disaster to clean up and it will take 8 years and solid congressional support to do so.


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 14 of 15 (884231)
01-30-2021 4:13 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by Phat
01-29-2021 8:37 AM


Re: The mainstream media says that ONLY Trump could hold Biden to 79% of black male vote
The situation is developing, and we are all wondering where it is all going.

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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1844
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 15 of 15 (884487)
02-21-2021 10:13 PM


Republicans looking strong in 10 most important states, shows Wash Post.
The article is titled Donald Trump May Not Have Hurt the GOP as Much As Some May Think

Exit polling data, interviewing 75,000, voters in 10 states, were then put into two voter groups:

Those in states Trump lost in 2020, but won in 2016 ( Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia)

Then 5 states held held in 2020 (Texas, Florida, nNorth Carolina , Iowa, Ohio)

Voters identifying themselves as Republican went up in both sets of states while the identification with Democrats went down in both.

Democrats had a 36 to 34 edge in party identification of voters in the 5 flipped states, in 2016, but in 2020, Republicans had a 38 to 34 edge.

The 5 states Trump held saw the 35 to 32 Republican advantage, in 2016, go up to 38 to 30, in 2020.

Trump perfmance against Biden:

The Republican Trump loss to Hispanics was cut from 35 points, in 2016, to 25 points in 2020, among voters in the flipped states.

The Republican Trump loss among Hispanics, in held states, was cut from a 30 point loss, in 2016, to 18 points in 2020.

One problem area , for Republicans, was the increased loss to Democrats among independent voters . The Trump loss went from 10 points to 19 points in the flipped states, from 2016 to 2020. The Trump loss went from 12 points to 17 in the held states from 2016 to 2020.

White voter support for Trump dropped by 12 in the flipped states, and 6 in the held states.

This shows that the Republicans are looking newly strong in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Holding strength in Georgia , Arizona, Texas, Florida , and North Carolina.

Texas is looking more and more like a must flip state for Democrats, as it alone could make for a Democratic win, if the 5 flipped states all go Republican in a future election.

(Giving the Omaha district to Democrats or not)


  
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