Trump has presented the GOP with four scenarios for the near term:
Sc 1) Trump forms a third party, the ‘Patriot’ party. He has talked of doing this in retaliation against the Republicans who didn’t support his attempt to overturn the election. Remember when in the first Republican candidate debate of the 2016 presidential race, the 17 candidates were asked if they would form a third party if they didn’t win the nomination, 16 said definitely ‘no’, but one, Trump of course, was very equivocal. If Trump does this, it will not only scuttle any chances the Republicans have for the 2024 presidential election, but many of his most ardent political sycophants will probably join him, splitting down ballot votes as well. Even his Republican politician supporters who stay with that party will be put into a bind as to which candidate they endorse. Lindsey, Teddy, Josh, et. al. will lose votes whichever way they go. Trump has recently disavowed this third party story, but we all know he changes direction faster than a rooster weather vane in a hurricane.
Sc 2) Trump stays in the Republican party and starts campaigning for and wins the 2024 presidential nomination. This will lose the Republicans a huge mass of the independent vote and many non-Trumpian Republican votes in both the presidential and down ballot races. Many of these voters will just not vote at all and the Republicans will have a major get-out-the-vote problem.
Sc 3) Trump stays in the Republican party and starts campaigning for and loses the 2024 presidential nomination. Now the Republicans lose the Trump core supporters - maybe still 10 to 20 million strong - again both in the presidential and down ballot races, and again a big drop in voter turnout.
Sc 4) Enough Republicans in the senate, aware of the above three scenarios, vote to convict Trump and disallow him from future national political office. This again will lose them the core Trump supporter votes and will be disastrous in the 2022 midterms. Might even get a few Republican field offices attacked. And Trump would no doubt challenge this through endless court battles bringing his brilliant cadre of lawyers to bear.
Note to GOP: As ye sow, so shall ye reap.