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Author Topic:   Deflation And Hyperinflation. Could It Happen Here?
Phat
Member
Posts: 15387
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 1 of 33 (884280)
02-04-2021 3:41 PM


jar claims that I listen to shills and quacks...con men all. I say he doesn't see the handwriting on the wall.

Note this article from respectable magazine, Forbes:
Hyperinflation: Will America Dodge The Bullet?
When I seee stuff like this, my inner intuitiveness confirms its validity. Call me arrogant, but I think I see a scenario which mainstrtem academia misses.

How you all see it as life as usual, I see as an apocalyptic scenario. Why is that? Am I that smart or am I that delusional? Or are you?

Virtually every article that I read says that we likely will have a deflationary scenario followed by an inflationary....and even hyper-inflationary one.

Comments?


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Percy, posted 02-11-2021 10:31 AM Phat has responded
 Message 9 by ringo, posted 02-11-2021 11:10 AM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 18 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-12-2021 11:17 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33343
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 2 of 33 (884281)
02-04-2021 4:12 PM


See what?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by Phat, posted 02-09-2021 11:22 AM jar has responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15387
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 3 of 33 (884310)
02-09-2021 11:22 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by jar
02-04-2021 4:12 PM


Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
Seeing the signs indicating that such a scenario is likely to occur. Anyone with intelligence of even a minor degree could discern the likely signs that the economy of the US dollar and the soundness of our financial system is at least being tested.

Or perhaps you simply see the bill being paid at the expense of those foolish virgins who did not bother to refill their lamps.

I never liked your assessment that the US as a whole would clearly survive and that only some of us would get wiped out to pay the damnable bill that in your opinion wont tank everybody but only a select group.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 02-04-2021 4:12 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 02-09-2021 12:31 PM Phat has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33343
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 4 of 33 (884311)
02-09-2021 12:31 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Phat
02-09-2021 11:22 AM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
Reality can be a bitch Phat.

But yet again you simply haven't answered the question.

What is written on the wall?

What are the signs that anyone can see?

And the US dollar has absolutely nothing to do with the FACT, and it really is a fact, that the Bill Will Get Paid.

The issue is "How to pay the bill with the least amount of suffering?"

Basics Phat.

What is the current US Fed Fund Interest Rate?

Edited by jar, : No reason given.


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Phat, posted 02-09-2021 11:22 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by Phat, posted 02-10-2021 12:27 AM jar has responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15387
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 5 of 33 (884313)
02-10-2021 12:27 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by jar
02-09-2021 12:31 PM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
quote:
This Week: Month: Year
Ago

Fed Funds Rate (Current target rate 0.00-0.25) 0.25 0.25 1.75

What it means: The interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other, usually on an overnight basis. The law requires banks to keep a certain percentage of their customer's money on reserve, where the banks earn no interest on it. Consequently, banks try to stay as close to the reserve limit as possible without going under it, lending money back and forth to maintain the proper level.

How it's used: Like the federal discount rate, the federal funds rate is used to control the supply of available funds and hence, inflation and other interest rates. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow. That lowers the supply of available money, which increases the short-term interest rates and helps keep inflation in check. Lowering the rate has the opposite effect, bringing short-term interest rates down.


So now that they are low, inflation is a distinct possibility. Im telling you it will be closer to hyperinflation until the dollar finds its true level in relation to other currencies. The US middle class will get decimated...and all to pay that stupid bill. We oughta protest. The whole world must pay it.

Edited by Phat, : No reason given.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 02-09-2021 12:31 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Tangle, posted 02-10-2021 3:33 AM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 7 by jar, posted 02-10-2021 7:19 AM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 10 by AZPaul3, posted 02-11-2021 4:26 PM Phat has responded
 Message 16 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-12-2021 7:45 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8152
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 6 of 33 (884314)
02-10-2021 3:33 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by Phat
02-10-2021 12:27 AM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
Doomed, doomed doomed, we're all doomed!

I guess it something in the fundie mindset that everything is apocalyptic all the time. Gotta have something to stress about.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Phat, posted 02-10-2021 12:27 AM Phat has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33343
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 7 of 33 (884315)
02-10-2021 7:19 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by Phat
02-10-2021 12:27 AM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
Phat writes:

The whole world must pay it.

Most of the world has been paying the bill; it's the US that has, just like Trump, been refusing to pay its bill. And for the US the compound interest on the bill has been accumulating for almost a half century.

And the US will eventually have to pay it.

And yes, it's very likely that the wealthy in the US will yet again refuse to pay and let the poor and middle class suffer.

BUT that is what the US citizens have supported and voted for and a very large percentage continue to vote for. So they will get what the vote for.

AbE:

Stop and think Phat.

Banks borrow money short term a 0.25%.

What interest rate can you get on a short term loan or credit card?

Edited by jar, : appalin spallin

Edited by jar, : see AbE.


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 20108
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.3


(1)
Message 8 of 33 (884327)
02-11-2021 10:31 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
02-04-2021 3:41 PM


Phat writes:

How you all see it as life as usual, I see as an apocalyptic scenario. Why is that? Am I that smart or am I that delusional? Or are you?

You've just introduced yourself as a topic of discussion. I won't comment on how smart you are, but we who have come to know you know that you're not analytical, rarely synthesizing a set of facts into a rational conclusion. Ideas either make sense to you or they don't, independent of reality.

jar claims that I listen to shills and quacks...con men all. I say he doesn't see the handwriting on the wall.

What you say is not a rebuttal to Jar's claim. The two are independent. You do tend to latch on to ideas insufficiently grounded in reality, and today it's the possibility of hyperinflation. You've provided a bare link, merely stating a position without explanation or evidence.

The author of your article never states how much inflation constitutes hyperinflation, but Investopedia says that it's 50% inflation per month or more, which is 13,000% annual inflation. Venezuela is described as experiencing hyperinflation. Its inflationary rate in 2018 was 1,698,488%.

Now that I've quantified it, do you still want to argue for hyperinflation as a likely scenario in the US? Perhaps you'd like to argue for something less apocalyptic, like rising inflation in the coming years reaching 10% or 20%?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Phat, posted 02-04-2021 3:41 PM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by Phat, posted 02-14-2021 2:36 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19078
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 9 of 33 (884329)
02-11-2021 11:10 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
02-04-2021 3:41 PM


Phat writes:

Virtually every article that I read say....


Virtually every movie I see has John Wayne in it. Why do you think that is?

"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Phat, posted 02-04-2021 3:41 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5838
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 10 of 33 (884330)
02-11-2021 4:26 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Phat
02-10-2021 12:27 AM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
So now that they are low, inflation is a distinct possibility. Im telling you it will be closer to hyperinflation until the dollar finds its true level in relation to other currencies. The US middle class will get decimated.

Just like your religious apologists there are economic charlatans out to scare people into buying books, paying for lectures, putting eyes on websites.

Since you gravitate so strongly toward the religious charlatans we shouldn't be surprised by your having fallen into the economic charlatan's grasp.

Spread your wings, Phat. The economic future is not that pessimistic. There are other, more experienced, more stable voices out there. They are working with the same crystal ball as your charlatan scare mongers but with a lot less forced distortion around the edges.

These may help.

US Economic Outlook For 2021 and Beyond -- The Balance

quote:
According to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 16, 2020, U.S. GDP growth is expected to contract by 2.4% in 2020. It is estimated to then rebound up to a 4.2% growth rate in 2021, and slow to 3.2% in 2022, and 2.4% in 2023.

The 2021 Economy: We Are All Super Keynesian Now -- Forbes

quote:
The US economy will continue to grow during the first part of the year, driven mostly by sectors that have benefited from the reallocation of resources due to the pandemic. If the incoming Biden administration does not impose greater restrictions on the U.S. economy, there will also be some recovery in areas that saw the greatest losses during 2020. The Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy will continue, and for the time being this will fuel increased economic activity.

2021 Global Economic Outlook: The Next Phase of the V | Morgan Stanley -- Morgan Stanley

quote:
In their 2021 outlook, the economics team at Morgan Stanley Research says the V-shaped recovery that the team forecast in their 2020 midyear outlook is now entering a new self-sustaining phase and is on track to deliver 6.4% GDP growth in the coming year.

“This projection stands in stark contrast to the consensus, which forecasts 5.4% global growth and worries that the pandemic will have a bigger impact on private-sector risk appetite and, hence, global growth," says Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist. “We maintain that consumers have driven the recovery, and investment growth—a reflection of the private corporate sector's risk tolerance and a key feature of any self-sustaining recovery—is bouncing back as well."



Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Phat, posted 02-10-2021 12:27 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by Phat, posted 02-12-2021 7:47 AM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15387
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 11 of 33 (884333)
02-12-2021 7:47 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by AZPaul3
02-11-2021 4:26 PM


Financial Charlatans & Religious Charletans
I took your advice, but have my beliefs on the direction the world is heading. We will of course try and keep it together and I DO agree that moderation is wise. Biden has other remarks:
Biden warns China will 'eat our lunch' on infrastructure spending
It seems that jar is right in that the US needs to find better ways to compete and quit living in the past. The slogan, rather than "Make America Great Again" should be more along the lines of "Make America Great. For Once![

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by AZPaul3, posted 02-11-2021 4:26 PM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by jar, posted 02-12-2021 8:26 AM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 13 by Percy, posted 02-12-2021 11:44 AM Phat has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33343
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


(2)
Message 12 of 33 (884339)
02-12-2021 8:26 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by Phat
02-12-2021 7:47 AM


Re: Financial Charlatans & Religious Charletans
It really is a matter of knowing some of the basics.

The US has held the Federal Fund Rate as close to 0 as possible for a long time. This should help businesses borrow to create new jobs. But what we see is no new jobs. Since the Fed rate is at effective zero the only likely direction is for it to go up.

The US has fallen out of the top 10 nations in innovation.

More countries now invest in China than the do in the US.

The US moved infrastructure to the debit side of the ledger ever since Reagan, and so our infrastructure, water, power, roads, bridges ... are falling apart.

We are simply not competing and have decided not to compete for decades. We sat on the bench while China and Southeast Asia and Korea and Japan and Europe and Africa and South America scored again and again and again.

We need to compete.

We are no longer the innovators, the inventors, the builders, the leaders.

We know what to do; just look at what everyone else is doing well. It's not hidden or secret or impossible; everybody's doing it.

BUT it will take time and effort and most of all education to turn things around.


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Phat, posted 02-12-2021 7:47 AM Phat has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20108
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.3


(3)
Message 13 of 33 (884340)
02-12-2021 11:44 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by Phat
02-12-2021 7:47 AM


Re: Financial Charlatans & Religious Charletans
Phat writes:

The slogan, rather than "Make America Great Again" should be more along the lines of "Make America Great. For Once!

It's bad form to suggest this even in jest. It encourages jingoism and xenophobia, foundations of the current paranoia about China. China's population is 4.26 times greater than ours. They only need per capita GDP to be about 25% as great as ours to become the world's largest economy. Their economy is already 2/3 as large as ours. That Chinese GDP will exceed ours soon is inevitable, as inevitable as it was that the US would exceed Great Britain during the 1800s (around 1860 in size and around 1890 in per capita terms).

Better and more informed perspectives are called for. The US should be placed in the context of the whole world. The country's goal, however expressed in a slogan, should be economic opportunity, justice, fairness and healthcare for all.

Don't abandon your topic, which mentions both deflation and hyperinflation. You say little about deflation, but that possibility seems very real given how close to zero interest rates are, and given that the economy won't be mostly free of virus constraints for perhaps another six months.

And are you still including hyperinflation as a realistic possibility, defined as inflation exceeding 13,000% annually?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Phat, posted 02-12-2021 7:47 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by jar, posted 02-12-2021 3:16 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply
 Message 25 by Phat, posted 02-22-2021 1:45 PM Percy has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33343
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 14 of 33 (884344)
02-12-2021 3:16 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Percy
02-12-2021 11:44 AM


Re: Financial Charlatans & Religious Charletans
It might be worthwhile to discuss what happens in deflation and in particular a deflationary spiral and how other nations have addressed a deflationary spiral in the past.

My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Percy, posted 02-12-2021 11:44 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 15 of 33 (884348)
02-12-2021 7:14 PM


Deflation is mainly from increased unemployment.
It simply means there are surplus inventories with diminished purchasers.

Prices drop.

Money will be pumped into the economy for stimulus, as a solution.

It could be inflationary.

But lower interest rates encourage investment in housing inventories not to mention the stock market. There are then taxing opportunities for further economic growth projects. Like a Green New Deal and infrastructure.

You then have low to no unemployment and the demand, from workers, for higher wages.

More inflation.

Interest rates could need to be raised to get investors to buy treasury bonds. UNLESS the tax revenue is flooding the treasury.

But what if the revenue not even close?

Then... there are other measures, like "quantitative easing".

We have quantcast easing even without a booming economy, and inflation seems quite low. Deflation coming? Don't know. It would depend on a ton of circumstances.


  
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