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Author Topic:   Deflation And Hyperinflation. Could It Happen Here?
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 15 of 33 (884348)
02-12-2021 7:14 PM


Deflation is mainly from increased unemployment.
It simply means there are surplus inventories with diminished purchasers.

Prices drop.

Money will be pumped into the economy for stimulus, as a solution.

It could be inflationary.

But lower interest rates encourage investment in housing inventories not to mention the stock market. There are then taxing opportunities for further economic growth projects. Like a Green New Deal and infrastructure.

You then have low to no unemployment and the demand, from workers, for higher wages.

More inflation.

Interest rates could need to be raised to get investors to buy treasury bonds. UNLESS the tax revenue is flooding the treasury.

But what if the revenue not even close?

Then... there are other measures, like "quantitative easing".

We have quantcast easing even without a booming economy, and inflation seems quite low. Deflation coming? Don't know. It would depend on a ton of circumstances.


  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 16 of 33 (884349)
02-12-2021 7:45 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Phat
02-10-2021 12:27 AM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
Inflation is not synonymous with the dollar's value against foreign currencies.

And the typical order of events generally has been inflation FIRST , then deflation SECOND.

But I should point out that a lot of wealth in the country will be in land, buildings, and stocks. It is not STOCKS & BONDS but stocks, bonds, buildings, land, etc.

(ALL inches of land will be claimed. Heck, it was even true back in the late 19th century. Little House on the Prairie was based on a family that could get no cheap land in Wisconsin, so the family went to the Diminished Indian Reserve in Kansas)

The population has grown, to today's levels,and now the stolen, claimed, sold, resold land ( yes, LAND) is surely the greatest chunk of the gross domestic asset total . Land values are explosive and much higher than ever.

I really wonder just how much punch an inflation increase throws nowadays. The somewhat diminished importance of inflation might explain the lack of it. It might be that it is just not so scary anymore, and perception drives values of so many assets. The only thing to fear is, well ...fear.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 17 of 33 (884350)
02-12-2021 8:38 PM


Another general babble post.
Ever wonder what would happen if we traded the dollar for stocks 30 plus years ago? Put all dollars in a stock index.

The stock market ( Dow Jones, that is)did not hit 1000 until the late 1980s. Now it is around 30,000.

That is growth 30 times inflation.

What about the "crypto currency " Bitcoin. It went from less than $500 a coin,10 years ago, to $20,000 today.

40 times the value and while the $ had very little inflation , so there were no air bloating effects to explain such a shoot-out.

Granted the dollar is on a very grand scale compared to many assets it will be measured against. A government announcing a big federal asset investment will shoot the value of the targeted asset so fast that the purchase will come with an expensive premium.

So what is the point?

Investors are doing things with dollars( investments) and it will be a 100% hedge against inflation for many. I think the whole economy might be considered insulated from inflation for all sorts of reasons. Bond holders will be more at risk, if there really is large inflation, but who has everything invested in dollars ? Land and stocks bounce around like a yo-yo, but always go up long term. It all balances.

The national debt is high and higher and highest for sure. That is true everywhere. People still buy treasury bonds for stability when stocks are unstable. People like getting 0% interest if it means that a volatile stock market is blunted, so assets are protected.

It works!

Even with the seemingly monstrous innovation - Quantitative Easing - part of our new world. (Scary and unprecedented it may seem to be)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


Replies to this message:
 Message 22 by Phat, posted 02-14-2021 3:49 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 18 of 33 (884351)
02-12-2021 11:17 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
02-04-2021 3:41 PM


Deflation is more interesting than one might think.
Fernando Martin wrote an article on the history of inflation, and he showed a point of departure, in the suffering of deflation, just after World War 2. The inflationary periods, in the post World War 2 United States, were never followed by deflationary episodes. He tells us why.

Japan is an interesting story of a country that jacked up interest rates in the 1980s, which caused a deflationary spiral. This country ended up, as a corrective policy - nearly 2 decades later, inventing (I think this is accurate to say) Quantitative Easing, which has been proven to be able to hold interest rates at 0% WITH LOW INFLATION!

(Your Forbes article simple refers to Quantitative Easing as QE, and it is assumed that the abbreviation of the technical term is understood to be what it is, by the readers)

It should be pointed out that the great mass of web pages covering Deflation do not describe if as following am inflationary period. The typical reader will find the conditions surrounding deflation to be the complete opposite of a condition that is present during inflation. Truthfully , many things can cause deflation. To say anything about deflation's causes can set one up for a contradiction later.

Your Forbes article will simply show a bad economy's human victims needing a government to spend money to ease the pain, and the initial painful situation is described as deflationary. The government spending is presented as causing an increase in debt, with inflation coming from a currency that is eventually devalued. And the typical textbook definition of deflation will describe it as coming before inflation.

There is, in many situations, a pattern like that, but deflation-to-inflation, can be put into a circular motion where there is an infinite regress (deflation-inflation-deflation-inflation) and many of the examples are unique to given places and even periods. The theories can be circular if you developed them in a certain way. And a lot depends on how you connect the dots and group together the series of years and events. Plus gloss over and/or ignore many variable factors.

To me the biggest factor is what has been learned from the combined total of all of the experiences and lessons from the history of economic events. The broadest look at all the forms of situations - and in the least dogmatic mindset possible - is required.

The article seems to be based on a dogmatic belief in a scenario based on an economic-sclerosis type of theoretical and hypothetical outline - with a projection that WILL happen only if standard old stuff is implemented every step of the way by policy makers ( and it will require taking away, or ignoring, some of the fresh and vital new innovations like QE)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 19 of 33 (884352)
02-13-2021 1:43 AM
Reply to: Message 18 by LamarkNewAge
02-12-2021 11:17 PM


Re: Deflation is more interesting than one might think.
There is a good article from InflationData.com editor Tim McMahon, Deflation and Depression Through the Years ( March 15, 2009)

He gives every single month in the 20th century there was deflation.

His expert commentary & analysis reaches essentially the same conclusion of senior economist Fernando Martin:

Martin said prices were overall stable through World War 2, but periods when the government took the nation off of metal currencies caused inflation, and the return to the metal standards tightened the money supply and caused deflation.

McMahon said the U.K. adoption of the Gold Standard caused the deflation that caused the Great Depression.

Martin said the post World War 2 avoidance of metal standards saved us from deflation.

NO DEFLATION has inflicted the United States since the Great Depression!

It was caused by tight money supply.

( I also have concluded that higher interest rates are a cause of deflation. Japan started its deflationary spiral due to higher interest rates)

McMahon said deflation follows inflation!

(Like Fernando Martin, who attributes all deflationary episodes to inflationary periods. Martin praised the post World War 2 period of limited inflation, and contrasted it to the pre-WW2 period of overall stable prices(with severe fluctuations at times, which eventually balanced out) caused by the metal standards)

I feel that there is not enough money in circulation to keep up with the exploding asset prices. The lack of inflation with ever more trillions of QE dollars pumped is proof. Deflation has been beaten down due to the rejection of metal currency standards, and we know that there are ways to get employment going ( Green New Deal, for one) in periods of high unemployment.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 21 of 33 (884381)
02-14-2021 3:01 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by Phat
02-14-2021 2:36 PM


Re: A Bit Off Topic
Try to stay on topic.

This discussion got derailed earlier; posters were wrong to make it sound like your OP predictions were contrary to standard economic theory.

Just make your case, while ignoring the generic (endless here, it seems) insults.


This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 23 of 33 (884385)
02-14-2021 4:02 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by Phat
02-14-2021 3:49 PM


Re: Another general babble post.
BITVOIN went up in dollars and every other currency.

They are all tied to reality.

We don't really know what completely drives inflation anymore, and I am talking about consumer prices in a United States store. I am not sure what completely drives the dollar's value anymore.

It seems that investors have to be attracted to a currency, for it to have value, but the bidding process is different now. Investors no longer solely drive interest rates up, due to QE. Now they have to accept low to no interest, while getting a "safe" asset to cushion ( or replace entirely) stock risks.

Investors still matter, but not to the same extent as before.

Rising interest rates are a form of a deflationary "direction", except it usually is to bring inflation toward balance( less inflation)


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 24 of 33 (884386)
02-14-2021 4:07 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by Phat
02-14-2021 3:49 PM


Your hyperinflation scenario is based on...
a central bank refusing to raise interest rates to meet the markets demand for higher interest.

It will often involve defaults, as well.

There was nothing unreasonable about your concern. Interest rates are quite low.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 31 of 33 (884653)
02-28-2021 7:33 PM


I was trying to find a search on somebody, Phat. Are you familiar with Cliff Ford?
I am not able to find any discussion about him, outside of books quoting him.

I watched around 15 episodes of Hal Lindsay about 2 decades ago. It was called International Intelligence Briefing and it had a guest named Cliff Ford. I had to Google search Lindsay to get his name. There is so little information on Ford, that I cant even find out if he is still alive, or passed away.

Lots of google hits go to books on Amazon plus Google books. And even mainstream books reference him, though he is a radical conspiracy theorist. ( His books are almost a 200 year "history" of the Rothschilds, except they lack footnotes, which makes his writings little more than sensationalist and surely inaccurate. The writings tell us something about a narrative Ford wants to illustrate to us, for sure, but it does look like he is peddling fraud, but the delivery is interesting)

One book that is full of quotes from Ford's historical presentation is called:

A Prosperity Phenomenon: The Revelation of the Day of Jehovah Tsaba

By Don Pickney.

I found it by putting Cliff Ford International Intelligence Briefing into google.

The Google Book quotes start around page 100 or 110. I read it until page 121, when the section was titled The Creature From Jeckyll Island.

This is a good example of fantasy history, and the Rothschild stuff has been falsified by those who investigated this kind of stuff Ford and Pickney push. The Amazon reviewers have been saying that these historical events, in Ford's books, are absent citations and sources.

What do you think?

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-28-2021 7:47 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded
 Message 33 by Phat, posted 03-01-2021 8:56 AM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1840
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 32 of 33 (884654)
02-28-2021 7:47 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by LamarkNewAge
02-28-2021 7:33 PM


Re: I was trying to find a search on somebody, Phat. Are you familiar with Cliff Ford?
The book ,from Ford, is Blood, Money, and Greed and Pickney quotes it extensively in his own book, starting on page 112.

I cant find any discussion about Ford, but he was a co host, with Lindsay for years(?) . The show was viewed by millions every single week.

He was surely a major spreader of the anti Rothschild mania.

An unsung hero for the financial conspiracy theories,that are held by many today.


This message is a reply to:
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