EvC Forum: Deflation And Hyperinflation. Could It Happen Here?

LNA writes:

This discussion got derailed earlier; posters were wrong to make it sound like your OP predictions were contrary to standard economic theory.

Just make your case, while ignoring the generic (endless here, it seems) insults.

Yes I agree. Lets stick to this topic. The demons can be dealt with elsewhere.

LNA writes:

Inflation is not synonymous with the dollar's value against foreign currencies.

And the typical order of events generally has been inflation FIRST , then deflation SECOND.

But I should point out that a lot of wealth in the country will be in land, buildings, and stocks. It is not STOCKS & BONDS but stocks, bonds, buildings, land, etc.(...)The population has grown, to today's levels,and now the stolen, claimed, sold, resold land ( yes, LAND) is surely the greatest chunk of the gross domestic asset total . Land values are explosive and much higher than ever.

I really wonder just how much punch an inflation increase throws nowadays. The somewhat diminished importance of inflation might explain the lack of it. It might be that it is just not so scary anymore, and perception drives values of so many assets. The only thing to fear is, well ...fear.

As I pointed out before, the VALUE of any asset...be it land, gold, or a 1940 Rolls Royce...is measured (by us at least) in dollars.

Remember when economists talked about bubbles?

LNA writes:

What about the "crypto currency " Bitcoin. It went from less than $500 a coin,10 years ago, to $20,000 today.

40 times the value and while the $ had very little inflation , so there were no air bloating effects to explain such a shoot-out.

Granted the dollar is on a very grand scale compared to many assets it will be measured against. A government announcing a big federal asset investment will shoot the value of the targeted asset so fast that the purchase will come with an expensive premium.

So what is the point?

Getting back to bubbles.

quote:
An economic bubble, also known as a market bubble or price bubble, occurs when securities are traded at prices considerably higher than their *intrinsic value, followed by a ‘burst’ or ‘crash’, when prices tumble. The term is commonly used when talking about the property market (housing bubble).

*The intrinsic value of a security is what it is really worth, its actual worth, rather than its market price or book value.

Wiki says this:
Economic Bubble

Wiki writes:

Simply put, economic bubbles often occur when too much money is chasing too few assets, causing both good assets and bad assets to appreciate excessively beyond their fundamentals to an unsustainable level. Once the bubble bursts, the fall in prices causes the collapse of unsustainable investment schemes (especially speculative and/or Ponzi investments, but not exclusively so), which leads to a crisis of consumer (and investor) confidence that may result in a financial panic and/or financial crisis; if there is monetary authority like a central bank, it may be forced to take a number of measures in order to soak up the liquidity in the financial system or risk a collapse of its currency. This may involve actions like bailouts of the financial system, but also others that reverse the trend of monetary accommodation, commonly termed forms of 'contractionary monetary policy'.

You mentioned bitcoin.
Citi: Bitcoin at ‘Tipping Point’ as Institutions Come on Board Seems the big money is flirting with this ubiquitous cryptocurrency.
Personally I dont trust it. Anything that goes up that fast could and would crash just as fast.

Today's value, according to Yahoo Finance: $48,182.28. I prefer Gold and Silver as counter-cyclical investments. They say to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Lets ask Google how much gold China owns: (Unofficially much more than Officially)

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox

The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo

The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

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