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Author Topic:   Bit Coin: 2 bit bubble
PaulK
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Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 25 of 178 (886659)
05-29-2021 4:05 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by Phat
05-29-2021 3:53 PM


Re: More Peter Schiff Debates
Bitcoin is not going to replace money. The transaction volumes required to do that are way, way above anything Bitcoin can manage. And that’s on top of it’s volatility (expect the “value” to take a dive if China bans Bitcoin “mining” as they’ve suggested they might).
And since you’re hot on a currency being backed by something, tell me - what backs Bitcoin?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by Phat, posted 05-29-2021 3:53 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 26 by NosyNed, posted 05-29-2021 4:31 PM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 27 of 178 (886661)
05-29-2021 4:39 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by NosyNed
05-29-2021 4:31 PM


Re: Bitcoin
I don’t think it’s actually good for anything worthwhile. It is used for things like ransomware payments.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by NosyNed, posted 05-29-2021 4:31 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 82 of 178 (887212)
07-25-2021 4:49 AM
Reply to: Message 81 by Phat
07-25-2021 3:56 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
quote:
You don't understand basic finance at all and its no wonder very few people do.
Says the guy who doesn’t understand basic finance.
quote:
Gold is kept artificially low rather than high.
So you say, but I’ve yet to see any real support for it.
quote:
The reason is to defend the dollar. The dollar is manipulated to a large degree and allows the US citizens the huge advantage of living beyond their means. If the financial stock or bond markets collapsed, the price of gold would skyrocket to well over $10,000.00 an ounce. The reason being that people would desperately need a dependable place to park their money and preserve their purchasing power.
That doesn’t make a lot of sense. An artificially high dollar brings problems. A rise in gold prices doesn’t seem likely to lead to the dollar losing value relative to other major currencies. Skyrocketing prices for gold would cause problems for everyone who uses it as a material. Also a bubble like that is not a sign of “dependable” “purchasing power” at all. It’s usually followed by a crash.
quote:
If you doubt the manipulation and if you think that gold is, as John Maynard Keynes proclaimed, "a barbarous relic", explain to me why the central banks own nearly half of the world's gold and expect to increase that number? The price is definitely manipulated to keep the true value low.
Constraining supply doesn’t keep prices artificially low. It keeps prices artificially high. If the central banks wanted to keep prices low they would have to sell gold, not buy it and stockpile it in their vaults.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 81 by Phat, posted 07-25-2021 3:56 AM Phat has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 84 of 178 (887227)
07-26-2021 8:24 AM
Reply to: Message 81 by Phat
07-25-2021 3:56 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
Since you’re boasting of how clever you are and you’re so sure you’re right about the price of gold ([msg=887226]) please explain this:
If you doubt the manipulation and if you think that gold is, as John Maynard Keynes proclaimed, "a barbarous relic", explain to me why the central banks own nearly half of the world's gold and expect to increase that number? The price is definitely manipulated to keep the true value low.
That is not manipulating the price of gold to to keep it low. It’s not even a sign that the banks think the price is low (else they would be buying now). The basic concepts of supply and demand are not that difficult.
So explain why you think that the banks holding on to large stockpiles of gold (constraining supply) - and planning to buy more (future demand) indicates that they are keeping the price down.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 81 by Phat, posted 07-25-2021 3:56 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 86 by Phat, posted 07-27-2021 5:17 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 87 of 178 (887253)
07-27-2021 6:17 AM
Reply to: Message 86 by Phat
07-27-2021 5:17 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
quote:
The banks dont own Gold as an investment. They own Gold as a backing for the dollars
More accurately they own it as an asset. It’s not specifically to back the currency. The dollar is not based on gold. That’s not been the case since it was taken off the Gold Standard (by definition!).
The gold stockpiles are just another asset.
quote:
By owning so much Gold, they can control the market through buying it and selling it so that the Gold itself never goes out of their control
Even with that amount there are limits to what they can do. And that they could do something doesn’t mean that they are doing it.
quote:
The currencies can be manipulated. Gold and Silver cannot.
Doesn’t manipulating the price qualify? Why not?
I note that NONE of what you say indicates any price manipulation at all. And that was the point you were meant to be explaining.
How does the fact that the central banks own lots of gold and plan to buy more show that they are manipulating the price to keep it low?
If it doesn’t, then why did you so confidently assert that it does?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 86 by Phat, posted 07-27-2021 5:17 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 88 by Phat, posted 07-27-2021 7:23 PM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 90 of 178 (887260)
07-28-2021 1:06 AM
Reply to: Message 88 by Phat
07-27-2021 7:23 PM


Re: Making My Case
quote:
I will have to reread a lot of what I have listened to
No. If it was clear evidence of manipulation to keep the price low - that we should understand without listening to all that crap - you shouldn’t need anything else.
If it isn’t - if even you don’t understand it - then you were wrong and should admit it. And, in fact, basic economics says you are wrong. Holding onto large stockpiles doesn’t hold the prices down, noting an intent to make future purchases doesn’t keep the price down. In fact both of them would tend to keep the price up.
quote:
This sort of stuff has been going on a long time and the reason it is becoming important now is that there is no way that the world can keep doing this sort of thing due to the fact that debt is far out of control
Maybe it is, but misunderstanding economics is not going to help you. If you are getting things so badly wrong and confused then I don’t think the answer is to listen to more of the material that got you into that state.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 88 by Phat, posted 07-27-2021 7:23 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 91 by Phat, posted 07-29-2021 2:15 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 92 of 178 (887273)
07-29-2021 2:40 AM
Reply to: Message 91 by Phat
07-29-2021 2:15 AM


Re: Making My Case
quote:
The thing is I intuitively understand it but can't yet explain it in words. I just know when something is right. (Or think I do)
Belief and understanding are not the same thing. If you can’t explain it in words it is likely that you don’t understand it.
More importantly the claim you expect us to accept goes directly against basic economics. If you didn’t understand that it’s hardly likely that you understand what you’re talking about.
It seems to me far more likely that you’ve fallen for a sales pitch.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 91 by Phat, posted 07-29-2021 2:15 AM Phat has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 95 of 178 (887301)
07-30-2021 9:59 AM
Reply to: Message 94 by Phat
07-30-2021 8:16 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
One way to make profits would be to fool people into thinking that the price of gold would hugely increase in the near future and then to sell them gold (often at a premium) or investments (or “investments”) that will supposedly profit when that happens.
That’s exactly what this looks like.
)Indeed, the whole idea that the prices are being suppressed might be an attempt to cover for a previous scam of the same sort. After a while people begin to notice that they aren’t getting the profits they were told to expect.)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 94 by Phat, posted 07-30-2021 8:16 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 96 by Phat, posted 07-30-2021 10:29 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 97 of 178 (887303)
07-30-2021 10:43 AM
Reply to: Message 96 by Phat
07-30-2021 10:29 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
quote:
Your scenario COULD be another possibility. It remains to be seen how everything will play out.
Why else would they try to deceive you into thinking that the price of gold was being held down. Let me remind you:
quote:
If you doubt the manipulation and if you think that gold is, as John Maynard Keynes proclaimed, "a barbarous relic", explain to me why the central banks own nearly half of the world's gold and expect to increase that number? The price is definitely manipulated to keep the true value low.
This gives no reason to believe in the supposed manipulation. None.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 96 by Phat, posted 07-30-2021 10:29 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 107 of 178 (887399)
08-02-2021 9:45 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Phat
08-02-2021 9:34 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
The thing that strikes me about the transcript is that he says that the price of gold and silver is rising (a “bull market”) and the “manipulation” will continue the rise.
So the “reset” will be a fall in the price (the end of the bull markets).
That really doesn’t support your idea that the price is being kept artificially low.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Phat, posted 08-02-2021 9:34 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 108 by Phat, posted 08-02-2021 10:04 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 110 of 178 (887407)
08-02-2021 11:09 AM
Reply to: Message 108 by Phat
08-02-2021 10:04 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
quote:
The price has been kept stable.
Banks like stability. Highly volatile assets are more the province of traders.
quote:
The reset, as I understand the concept, only means that the dollar will no longer be the standard by which stocks, commodities, even properties, and bank accounts are measured.
It might not be the International standard for pricing gold or oil in the future. But it is certainly going to be the standard for ordinary US bank accounts - just like ordinary bank accounts in most countries use the local currency. Likewise properties in the US would continue to be mostly priced in dollars just as properties in other countries are mostly priced in local currency.
quote:
The Bull market of which the commentators speak is the slow and steady (managed) rise in the metals price relative to the dollar. When the managed Bull markets end, they will not be replaced by bear markets. They will be replaced by free-market speculation which no bank or government will be able to control
Nevertheless the end of the bull market necessarily involves a fall in prices. I never suggested that a bear market would follow.
But none of this suggests that metals are good markets for ordinary investors. Quite the opposite, really.

This message is a reply to:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 111 of 178 (887409)
08-02-2021 12:26 PM
Reply to: Message 106 by Phat
08-02-2021 9:34 AM


Re: Shifty Schiff and the Financial Apologists
Another point - this doesn’t make much sense to me:
manipulation is never going to end uh ever since gold and silver have been money they've been manipulated
i mean not electronically through paper but the baser currency the melted down coins put added copper
and main new ones with the lower gold or silver content
Debasing the coinage was a common trick, but that isn’t really manipulating metal prices. It’s just decreasing the metal value of the coins to below their face value. I’d say it comes in somewhere between minting more coins in a fiat currency and doing the same in a gold standard currency - when the bank doesn’t have enough gold. (Worse than the former, maybe not quite so bad as the latter).
The metal prices don’t really change - and by my understanding old coins (not debased) would often retain their value.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Phat, posted 08-02-2021 9:34 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 118 by Phat, posted 08-05-2021 9:57 AM PaulK has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 128 of 178 (887495)
08-07-2021 8:13 AM
Reply to: Message 127 by Phat
08-07-2021 7:22 AM


Re: Can We Have A Fact Based Discussion?
All right. What facts support the idea that the banks are keeping the price of gold low? That they are holding large amounts of gold certainly does not.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 127 by Phat, posted 08-07-2021 7:22 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 131 by Phat, posted 08-07-2021 8:31 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 130 of 178 (887497)
08-07-2021 8:26 AM
Reply to: Message 129 by Phat
08-07-2021 8:16 AM


Re: Challenging Sources Of Information
quote:
I will admit that I am betting that precious metals will outperform the US Dollar over the next 5 years.
Let us note that you need a 12% rise in the price of silver to break even on your recent purchase.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 129 by Phat, posted 08-07-2021 8:16 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 132 by Phat, posted 08-07-2021 8:33 AM PaulK has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 133 of 178 (887500)
08-07-2021 8:53 AM
Reply to: Message 131 by Phat
08-07-2021 8:31 AM


Re: Can We Have A Fact Based Discussion?
quote:
First off, high and low are relative terms. In my mind, Gold should be higher than it is relative to the US Dollar due to inflation having eroded the purchasing power of the dollar since 1940.
That’s opinion, not fact.
So is the idea that value should be based on precious metals. They aren’t any better just because you don’t like the alternatives you see.
quote:
Thus I would argue that the Banks are keeping the price of the metals stable rather than allowing it to be fueled by speculation.
I thought you were asking for a fact-based discussion, not one based purely on opinion Especially as there isn’t even a decent connection between the opinions and the conclusion. And if gold were the basis of value the banks would have even more incentive to keep it stable.
quote:
If the metals themselves become a haven for money taken out of stocks, bonds, or cryptocurrencies, the sheer volume of the abandoned markets would drive the price upward tenfold.
If demand was boosted sky-high the price would quickly rise, yes. But obviously that demand doesn’t exist right now. Are you blaming the banks for that? On what factual basis ?
So let’s note you ask for a fact-based discussion, and then utterly fail to produce facts supporting your position.

This message is a reply to:
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