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Author Topic:   Phat Unplugged
Percy
Member
Posts: 20403
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


(2)
Message 91 of 171 (888677)
09-27-2021 2:12 PM
Reply to: Message 88 by Phat
09-27-2021 11:34 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Phat writes:

I don't understand some of the concepts enough to know the words.

That should be a warning sign for you right there.

I knew that Gold no longer backed the dollar.

It's been nearly a hundred years since the US was on the gold standard. It's been a good long time since any meaningful currency has been backed by gold.

You've been told, more than once, that there isn't enough gold in the world to back the world's currencies, that the world population grows faster than the gold supply. If the world's currencies were backed by gold there would be less and less money to go around and the world would become more and more poor.

When the world population was only a billion or two and there was much less wealth it was possible to back currencies with gold. That is no longer possible and hasn't been for quite some time. Your talk of a gold standard is just rubbish.

What worries me about inflation and the actions of the Fed are that real wage values will decrease even as workers increase (assuming the opportunity for production) and your prediction that we will all make fine gardeners and servants of a rising global middle class looks likely.

Why, since you "don't understand some of the concepts," are you asserting anything? Why do you think you know enough to reach any conclusions? Why are you listening to scaremongers?

Instead of pausing your participation here you should have stopped listening to YouTube videos. Look, we get it, what they say tickles a part of your brain that feels good, but it's all nonsense. These guys are on YouTube not because they know anything but because they have a knack for making appealing YouTube videos.

You would be much better served trying to figure things out, connect the dots, learn how things really work. Master some of those concepts that seem so nebulous to you right now. And stop issuing silly warnings.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 88 by Phat, posted 09-27-2021 11:34 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15698
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 92 of 171 (888687)
09-28-2021 1:24 AM
Reply to: Message 90 by jar
09-27-2021 2:05 PM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
What might be a method that faith and confidence might be measured?

Honesty, for one thing. Being a nation that keeps its word and its promises.

You and I have discussed how poorly we have done in this area for many years.

In fact, judging from some news reports, we did it again to the Afghani people who helped us.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 90 by jar, posted 09-27-2021 2:05 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 93 by jar, posted 09-28-2021 6:53 AM Phat has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33488
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 93 of 171 (888691)
09-28-2021 6:53 AM
Reply to: Message 92 by Phat
09-28-2021 1:24 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Two people go into a back to get a loan.

One get the loan and one does not.

With which of the two does the bank have the greater confidence?


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 92 by Phat, posted 09-28-2021 1:24 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 94 by Phat, posted 09-28-2021 7:46 AM jar has responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15698
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 94 of 171 (888692)
09-28-2021 7:46 AM
Reply to: Message 93 by jar
09-28-2021 6:53 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
jar, spelling corrected writes:

Two people go into a bank to get a loan.

One gets the loan and one does not.

Of which of the two does the bank have the greater confidence?

Using my intuition, I would say that the bank has greater confidence towards the one whom they deny.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 93 by jar, posted 09-28-2021 6:53 AM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 95 by jar, posted 09-28-2021 7:50 AM Phat has responded
 Message 98 by Percy, posted 09-28-2021 2:22 PM Phat has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33488
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 4.1


(2)
Message 95 of 171 (888693)
09-28-2021 7:50 AM
Reply to: Message 94 by Phat
09-28-2021 7:46 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
I give up!

My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 94 by Phat, posted 09-28-2021 7:46 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 96 by Phat, posted 09-28-2021 12:00 PM jar has not yet responded
 Message 97 by Phat, posted 09-28-2021 12:02 PM jar has not yet responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15698
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 96 of 171 (888694)
09-28-2021 12:00 PM
Reply to: Message 95 by jar
09-28-2021 7:50 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
was I wrong then? They know why *not* to approve a loan. They have no idea if the loan will be repaid but can only judge based on ability to repay.

Let's extrapolate that to the United States. Do we really want China to buy up all of our farmland? We DO still have a military that could theoretically nationalize all foreign holdings if our creditors (the bank) get a bit too carried away.

China is not our idea of a global leader. They cannot simply mimic what the US has done in the past hundred years. We could get away with owning foreign investments since we were a democracy.(or to some a republic) They are a totalitarian communist regime with a horrible history of controlling people....something we have never done.

You say the bill will get paid, but it matters a lot to whom the money is owed. I for one am in favor of default or bankruptcy if the creditors are predatory or unworthy.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 95 by jar, posted 09-28-2021 7:50 AM jar has not yet responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15698
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 97 of 171 (888695)
09-28-2021 12:02 PM
Reply to: Message 95 by jar
09-28-2021 7:50 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
OK lets try this again.

jar, spelling corrected writes:

Two people go into a bank to get a loan.

One gets the loan and one does not.

Of which of the two does the bank have the greater confidence?

The one who gets the loan.

Where is this analogy heading?

Edited by Phat, : No reason given.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 95 by jar, posted 09-28-2021 7:50 AM jar has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20403
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 98 of 171 (888696)
09-28-2021 2:22 PM
Reply to: Message 94 by Phat
09-28-2021 7:46 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Phat writes:

Using my intuition, I would say that the bank has greater confidence towards the one whom they deny.

Seriously?

Unless this is a joke or a sarcastic response to how obvious jar's question was, you need serious help.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 94 by Phat, posted 09-28-2021 7:46 AM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 99 by Phat, posted 09-29-2021 7:21 AM Percy has responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15698
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 99 of 171 (888701)
09-29-2021 7:21 AM
Reply to: Message 98 by Percy
09-28-2021 2:22 PM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Of course, it was sarcastic. Sometimes you guys insult me by imagining yourselves far smarter than I. I may correct you on that 300 billion servicing figure. It is now twice that, based on 9%. The latest figure was 2020 and it was over 500 billion.

The current debt is just under 29 trillion dollars. This does not include unfunded liabilities such as future promises *cough* Social Security *cough* which are estimated to be over one hundred trillion dollars.

The deficit is the yearly amount added to the debt, and this figure alone approaches 4 trillion dollars as of late.

And the problem with the dollar being backed by production is that the US is not an efficient producer anymore. We have a financial system driven upwards as of late only through artificially infused stimulus.

I know that it is simplistic to compare globalism (all of the people) to nationalism (US people) but the dollar is a US currency as well as a global reserve currency.(currently the main one) If we keep borrowing and do not produce, the rest of the world will tire of our status quickly. Jar always argues that the proverbial bill will get paid, but I wonder if any of you know or care that the human productive backing of goods and services will not help us if the dollar becomes global....nor will it help us if any other currency takes its place. Do you understand what I'm trying to say? I hope that I am not coming across as too delusional.

Believe it or not, I'm no dummy. Ask those who know me well.
(Though I *do* get insecure around here at times. )


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 98 by Percy, posted 09-28-2021 2:22 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 100 by Tangle, posted 09-29-2021 8:54 AM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 101 by PaulK, posted 09-29-2021 9:32 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply
 Message 102 by Percy, posted 09-29-2021 12:45 PM Phat has not yet responded
 Message 108 by ringo, posted 09-30-2021 12:24 PM Phat has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8235
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 100 of 171 (888703)
09-29-2021 8:54 AM
Reply to: Message 99 by Phat
09-29-2021 7:21 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Phat writes:

Believe it or not, I'm no dummy. Ask those who know me well.


You need to stop making these kind of comments, no-one else seems to feel the need to. It's likely to have the reverse effect than what you were hoping for.

For what it's worth, I doubt anyone thinks you stupid, but you are very, very poor at thinking rationally.

It is a skill and it quite often has to be learned; it's not particularly intuitive. In fact it's the opposite. Your dependence on beliefs and "gut feelings" to argue here just gives it away.

Mike the Wizz is a perfect example of someone who is probably very intelligent but totally misapplies it; really twists his intelligence out of shape. Faith was also pretty smart but simply could not be impartial.

To be useful, intelligence has to be applied rationally otherwise it becomes quite dangerous.

quote:
(Though I *do* get insecure around here at times. )

That should be telling you that maybe you're missing something about thinking.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 99 by Phat, posted 09-29-2021 7:21 AM Phat has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17032
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 101 of 171 (888704)
09-29-2021 9:32 AM
Reply to: Message 99 by Phat
09-29-2021 7:21 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
quote:
Of course, it was sarcastic. Sometimes you guys insult me by imagining yourselves far smarter than I. I may correct you on that 300 billion servicing figure. It is now twice that, based on 9%. The latest figure was 2020 and it was over 500 billion.

I don’t know how you get “based on 9%”. The 2021 figure is over $520 billion dollars but that’s about 2% of the debt.

I don’t know where you got the 300 billion figure you’re objecting to either (I can’t see it in this thread).

quote:
And the problem with the dollar being backed by production is that the US is not an efficient producer anymore. We have a financial system driven upwards as of late only through artificially infused stimulus.

COVID has affected everyone, so I think you need to exclude stimulus to counter that.

quote:
…. I wonder if any of you know or care that the human productive backing of goods and services will not help us if the dollar becomes global

This doesn’t make sense. What does it mean for the dollar to “become global”? Why would it affect the backing from the US economy?

quote:
....nor will it help us if any other currency takes its place.

I don’t see why that would be true, either. The backing would remain. Demand for dollars might fall, and with it the international value, but there’s a negative feedback there. US production would become cheaper on an international scale.

quote:
I hope that I am not coming across as too delusional.

What you are saying doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 99 by Phat, posted 09-29-2021 7:21 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20403
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 102 of 171 (888710)
09-29-2021 12:45 PM
Reply to: Message 99 by Phat
09-29-2021 7:21 AM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Phat writes:

Of course, it was sarcastic.

That's not what sarcasm looks like.

Sometimes you guys insult me by imagining yourselves far smarter than I.

Stop saying things that aren't true. No one said they're smarter than you. Your posts exhibit a high frequency of demonstrated error, ignorance and naiveté. People have been commenting on this in an increasingly derogatory manner because you've become more and more persistent and determined to keep at it while ignoring the often informed feedback being provided.

I may correct you on that 300 billion servicing figure.

Sure go ahead. This is from How High Are Federal Interest Payments?:

quote:
This year, the federal government will spend $300 billion on interest payments on the national debt.

Here's a higher figure from 4 Ways to Reduce the Interest on the National Debt:

quote:
The interest on the debt is $378 billion.

That figure can be found in their referenced document Budget of the U.S. Government in the table on page 112 under the 2021 column for the "Net interest" line. I don't know why the difference from the other figure, but one possibility is that how much interest we incur and how much we actually pay in any given year are not the same thing.

But our interest payments will be growing over the coming years, soon passing the figure you cite, though you don't say where you got it. According to the aforementioned table, we won't surpass $500 billion for five more years.

It is now twice that, based on 9%.

9% of what? Federal revenue? The budget? 9% of federal revenue for fiscal 2021 is $348 billion.

The latest figure was 2020 and it was over 500 billion.

Uh, no. Why do you think this? What crazy YouTube guy are you listening to now?

And the problem with the dollar being backed by production is that the US is not an efficient producer anymore.

Not counting the pandemic, US productivity has been on a general upward trend for decades.

We have a financial system driven upwards as of late only through artificially infused stimulus.

Most countries throughout the world engage in deficit spending because of its stimulus effects. The analogy is home buying. If everyone waited to buy a home until they had saved a few hundred thousand dollars very few homes would be purchased. Use of mortgages (deficit spending at the personal level) enables everyone to live a better life.

I know that it is simplistic to compare globalism (all of the people) to nationalism (US people) but the dollar is a US currency as well as a global reserve currency.(currently the main one) If we keep borrowing and do not produce, the rest of the world will tire of our status quickly.

This is nonsense. We are not losing our ability to produce, just look at our GDP. Who is filling your head with this nonsense? Why do you constantly think it sufficient to throw cockamamie ideas out into the discussion without justification? Did you ever stop to think, "Is the US actually losing its ability to produce? I should go look up recent GDP trends."

Jar always argues that the proverbial bill will get paid, but I wonder if any of you know or care that the human productive backing of goods and services will not help us if the dollar becomes global....nor will it help us if any other currency takes its place.

This is word salad.

Do you understand what I'm trying to say?

Do even *you* understand what you're trying to say? You're trying to convince us of ideas you've picked up from people who don't know what they're talking about. Whenever your information is faulty or doesn't make sense we tell you, but you just ignore us, wait a day or two, then say it all over again.

I hope that I am not coming across as too delusional.

You are both gullible and delusional.

Believe it or not, I'm no dummy.

When circumstances reach the point where you have to tell people , "I'm no dummy," guess what?

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Add link to US Budget.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 99 by Phat, posted 09-29-2021 7:21 AM Phat has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 103 by PaulK, posted 09-29-2021 12:58 PM Percy has responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17032
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 103 of 171 (888711)
09-29-2021 12:58 PM
Reply to: Message 102 by Percy
09-29-2021 12:45 PM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
There seems to be some confusion over figures. The Treasury reports a figure of $524,706,646,051.90 in interest payments for FY 2021
Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding (treasurydirect.gov)

That’s a little higher than the 2020 figure, but noticeably lower than 2019.

Edited by Admin, : Fix link.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 102 by Percy, posted 09-29-2021 12:45 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 104 by Percy, posted 09-29-2021 1:21 PM PaulK has responded
 Message 105 by Percy, posted 09-29-2021 1:46 PM PaulK has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20403
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 104 of 171 (888712)
09-29-2021 1:21 PM
Reply to: Message 103 by PaulK
09-29-2021 12:58 PM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
The relevant line of the table on page 112 of the Budget of the U.S. Government is labeled "Net interest," implying that we're both paying and receiving interest. I couldn't find any clarifying information in the document.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 103 by PaulK, posted 09-29-2021 12:58 PM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 106 by PaulK, posted 09-29-2021 2:08 PM Percy has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20403
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 105 of 171 (888713)
09-29-2021 1:46 PM
Reply to: Message 103 by PaulK
09-29-2021 12:58 PM


Re: Production Backs The Dollar
Found the explanation at Federal Net Interest Costs: A Primer:

quote:
At a Glance
...
  • Components of Net Interest. In the federal budget, the category of spending called net interest comprises the government’s interest payments on debt held by the public, offset by certain types of interest income that the government receives. Some of those payments and receipts are intragovernmental transactions on accounts that are not related to the public debt and have no effect on the overall federal budget.
  • What Is Net Interest

    The government pays and collects interest in various ways. Net interest consists of the interest it pays minus the interest it receives. The outlays largely reflect the interest paid to holders of the debt that the Treasury issues to the public. Although the Treasury also issues debt to trust funds and other government accounts, the payment of interest to those accounts is an intragovernmental transaction that has no effect on the budget deficit.

    The net interest costs shown in the budget include interest paid on all Treasury securities ($523 billion in 2020), minus the portion of that interest that is received by trust funds ($135 billion in 2020) and the net amount of other interest and investment income received by the government ($43 billion in 2020). The last category consists primarily of net receipts to the Treasury from the financing accounts that track the cash flows of federal credit programs (mostly student loans).

    The federal government’s interest payments depend largely on interest rates and the amount of debt held by the public. Other factors, such as the rate of inflation and the maturity structure of outstanding securities, also affect interest costs. (For example, long-term bonds generally carry higher interest rates than do short-term bills.) Interest rates are determined by market forces, such as the supply and demand for Treasury securities, and the policies of the Federal Reserve.


    --Percy


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 103 by PaulK, posted 09-29-2021 12:58 PM PaulK has not yet responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 114 by Phat, posted 10-05-2021 11:26 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

      
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