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Author Topic:   Trump and Trump supporters keep using the Y2K Fallacy, and it is driving me crazy
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(4)
Message 133 of 190 (889387)
11-22-2021 5:20 PM
Reply to: Message 131 by AZPaul3
11-22-2021 3:58 PM


AZPaul3 writes:

But if the scary things you say turn out to be untrue, then you've shot yourself in the foot, haven't you?

Then we will have saved the environment and humanity for nothing?

What a bummer that would be.

I wonder how many of the scientists studying climate and building weather and climate models, from the 1980s to the present, and who invented more and more ways to collect data and who are the same guys looking at the data and putting the data in their computer models, modified their predictions as they collected more and more data?

I have not heard of a single climate expert who defends the predictions of their 1st model and does not keep testing it against newer data. The whole point in studying something like climate is understand it better and to keep improving our understanding.

There are a lot of idiots out there who do not understand the concept of tentativeness of scientific predictions. I think they would be genuinely bummed out if humans globally cooperated to save whatever is left of the biosphere and humanity.

Now the irony would be, if we managed to avert disaster, then the scary things you say turn out to be untrue.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 131 by AZPaul3, posted 11-22-2021 3:58 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 135 by dwise1, posted 11-23-2021 10:18 AM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(1)
Message 136 of 190 (889390)
11-23-2021 11:02 AM
Reply to: Message 135 by dwise1
11-23-2021 10:18 AM


This subtopic reminds me of a cartoon that I've saved away somewhere.

At an Al Gore presentation, one person in the audience turns to another and says, "But what if we save the planet and improve our lives immensely and it turns out to all be for nothing?"

Yep, I have that one saved too.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 135 by dwise1, posted 11-23-2021 10:18 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 141 of 190 (889478)
11-29-2021 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 140 by Percy
11-28-2021 11:25 PM


Re: Movie Quote
From an old movie called Born Yesterday: A world full of ignorant people is too dangerous to live in.

Unfortunately, it's the only world we have. As an observer it sure looks like people are getting stupider.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 140 by Percy, posted 11-28-2021 11:25 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 142 by ringo, posted 11-29-2021 11:41 AM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 152 of 190 (890157)
12-27-2021 11:21 PM


Twilight Zone
We have everything we need from some recent ravings for some new episodes.

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(4)
Message 161 of 190 (891476)
01-31-2022 12:45 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by Sarah Bellum
01-29-2022 3:02 PM


A Couple Questions for Ms Brain
So, what do you think, is it useful in dealing with such people to cry wolf? To make alarmist predictions that won't stand the test of time?
If yes, why?

If no, what's your alternative?

1.) Do you think scientists should report the results of their research?

2.) Do you think they should form conclusions and make predictions based on the results of their research?

3.) Do you think they should defend their original predictions even when further research refines their results or shows their original predictions are no longer valid?

4.) Do you think scientists should stop doing research into controversial subjects or that they should withhold their results and conclusions?

5.) Do you think that scientists should sound the alarm when they can see an obvious global disaster looming where some of the worst effects of that disaster might be modified by some changes in behavior by the human population on this planet?

Do you have any answers or alternatives?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 3:02 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 166 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:36 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 169 of 190 (892339)
03-05-2022 4:15 PM
Reply to: Message 167 by Sarah Bellum
03-05-2022 3:42 PM


But global warming predictions that turned out to be inaccurate are problematic in any case.

In what way problematic? How can they remain problematic once we know they are inaccurate? Can you explain?

What about climate predictions that turned out to be accurate? Are they problematic also?

Can you point out global warming predictions that turned out to be inaccurate that were unmodified after their inaccuracy was known?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 167 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:42 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 183 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-21-2022 8:55 AM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(2)
Message 170 of 190 (892343)
03-05-2022 4:43 PM
Reply to: Message 166 by Sarah Bellum
03-05-2022 3:36 PM


Re: A Couple Questions for Ms Brain
Tanypteryx writes:

1.) Do you think scientists should report the results of their research?

2.) Do you think they should form conclusions and make predictions based on the results of their research?

3.) Do you think they should defend their original predictions even when further research refines their results or shows their original predictions are no longer valid?

4.) Do you think scientists should stop doing research into controversial subjects or that they should withhold their results and conclusions?

5.) Do you think that scientists should sound the alarm when they can see an obvious global disaster looming where some of the worst effects of that disaster might be modified by some changes in behavior by the human population on this planet?

Do you have any answers or alternatives?

Sarah Bellum writes:

1. I believe lying is both counterproductive and morally wrong.
2. I believe lying is both counterproductive and morally wrong.
3. I believe lying is both counterproductive and morally wrong.
4. I believe lying is both counterproductive and morally wrong.
5. I believe lying is both counterproductive and morally wrong.

Well that's disappointing. I was hoping for a bit more substance. Your behavior seems pretty trollish.

Edited by Tanypteryx, : Added my questions for context.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 166 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:36 PM Sarah Bellum has seen this message but not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(2)
Message 173 of 190 (892442)
03-07-2022 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 172 by ringo
03-07-2022 10:54 AM


My problem is that you keep driving by every month or so and posting inane comments to me.

She's acting like a drive-by troll. Her posts have little content. I think she's embarrassed that she was completely wrong about the Y2K issue and whether scientists should make predictions based on their data. That's why we hire scientists to conduct research rather than uneducated idiots. We've already tried stupidity.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 172 by ringo, posted 03-07-2022 10:54 AM ringo has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 177 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-18-2022 10:00 AM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 178 of 190 (893685)
04-18-2022 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 177 by Sarah Bellum
04-18-2022 10:00 AM


I don't think you know what a rant is. Look it up.

You trolls are really irritating with your content-less posts.


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 177 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-18-2022 10:00 AM Sarah Bellum has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 180 by Percy, posted 04-19-2022 9:57 AM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(4)
Message 181 of 190 (893732)
04-19-2022 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 180 by Percy
04-19-2022 9:57 AM


I did ridicule her, because her characterization of scientists and their predictions is ridiculous bullshit, in my opinion.

She implied that scientist's predictions about climate from decades ago were not modified as they learned more. When I directly questioned that position she either ignored the questions or repeated her assertions.

She started off way back, asserting that because the Y2K problem was avoided that it never was a problem and that no one actually did anything to avoid it. The company I worked for spent several million dollars preparing for and avoiding Y2K.

I can see Ms Brain is a troll, so I don't see much point in engaging her further, beyond ridicule.

Why did it take so long for a consensus on climate change to emerge? Certainly the fossil fuel industry's funding of science played a role.

Part of the reason might be the billions spent on propaganda and buying politicians.

Science is carried out by imperfect humans whose mere intellectual lapses can cause enough damage, but scientists are also heir to all other human foibles, and those play a role in science as well. That's why a consensus is so important - the foibles average out.

Scientists make mistakes, but good science is self correcting. It is part of the scientific method to make predictions based on the state of current knowledge and to modify those predictions as we gain more knowledge.

Sarah's responses seemed to indicate that she disputes the modify part of the scientific predictions and that scientist should keep their mouths shut. If that is not her position she didn't do anything to make her position clearer, to me.


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 180 by Percy, posted 04-19-2022 9:57 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 182 by Percy, posted 04-19-2022 11:36 AM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 188 of 190 (893846)
04-21-2022 10:54 AM
Reply to: Message 183 by Sarah Bellum
04-21-2022 8:55 AM


I think "modifying" predictions after they fail to come to pass rather misses the point, don't you?

Nice twist! Not once did I say anything about modifying predictions after they fail.

In fact, I specifically asked you if you can show that any scientist defended their original prediction, or whether they modified them as they learned more, which is how science works.

ABE:

but the global warming crisis is especially fraught: if you're caught crying wolf, even unintentionally, the consequences could be problematic.

And if you're caught denying it or even intentionally making it worse, what should the consequences be?

Edited by Tanypteryx, : Because Sarah's blasé attitude really fucking pisses me off!!


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 183 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-21-2022 8:55 AM Sarah Bellum has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3425
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.1


(5)
Message 189 of 190 (893847)
04-21-2022 11:05 AM
Reply to: Message 186 by Percy
04-21-2022 10:01 AM


Climate deniers have centered their efforts on sowing doubt and confusion about the science, for instance, by characterizing past efforts as lacking scientific discipline.

That is what I was objecting to in Sarah's posts, she was sounding like a climate denier, and still does to me.


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 186 by Percy, posted 04-21-2022 10:01 AM Percy has not replied

  
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