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Author Topic:   COVID vaccine works - we're saved!
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8552
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 181 of 515 (889976)
12-19-2021 4:19 AM


Looks like Europe is heading for lockdown.

Netherlands already have, France and Germany closing borders with UK. London has declared a state of emergency. Infection rates are doubling every two days here though hospitalisations are still low.

It's politically impossible to lockdown the UK before Christmas but afterwards if hospitalisations start to become everwhelmed it's very likely.

There were early hopes that omicron might be less harmful than earlier variants but that doesn't seem to be the case. It's only the vaccinations that are saving us at the moment.

But people are getting ill in large numbers all at once so our health services and businesses have an ever reducing number of staff.

Keep safe folks, get your boosters.

Edited by Tangle, : No reason given.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


Replies to this message:
 Message 182 by Percy, posted 12-19-2021 11:18 AM Tangle has taken no action

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20837
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


(1)
Message 182 of 515 (889982)
12-19-2021 11:18 AM
Reply to: Message 181 by Tangle
12-19-2021 4:19 AM


We're not taking it seriously in the states anymore, and haven't been for a while. Everyone, including many who know better, are looking for excuses to return to normal. Even Fauci's advice has been kind of permissive and wishy-washy lately. Advice that vaccinated people can safely congregate indoors together is widespread, despite the prevalence of breakthrough cases. I experienced yet another example of loosening attitudes yesterday when my indoor sports facility resumed floor hockey after a year and a half hiatus - 20 to 30 people running and milling about and breathing heavily in a space about 90 by 45 feet.

The virus is not going to go away because the world is not taking it seriously enough. Whenever there's an outbreak and things shut down and prophylactic practices become taken seriously, as soon as things improve a little everything reopens and the cycle starts all over again. We will only be saved if a very contagious variant (much more contagious so that it displaces all previous) comes along that is also very mild.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Typo.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 181 by Tangle, posted 12-19-2021 4:19 AM Tangle has taken no action

Replies to this message:
 Message 183 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-19-2021 12:09 PM Percy has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3349
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 183 of 515 (889985)
12-19-2021 12:09 PM
Reply to: Message 182 by Percy
12-19-2021 11:18 AM


We will only be saved if a very contagious variant (much more contagious so that it displaces all previous) comes along that is also very mild.

Or much more lethal. Can you imagine a death rate of 40%?

I wonder if the U.S. will pass 1 million deaths from Covid in 2022?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 182 by Percy, posted 12-19-2021 11:18 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 184 by PaulK, posted 12-19-2021 12:29 PM Tanypteryx has taken no action
 Message 185 by Percy, posted 12-19-2021 3:12 PM Tanypteryx has taken no action

  
PaulK
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Posts: 17171
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 184 of 515 (889986)
12-19-2021 12:29 PM
Reply to: Message 183 by Tanypteryx
12-19-2021 12:09 PM


quote:
I wonder if the U.S. will pass 1 million deaths from Covid in 2022

I can’t imagine that it won’t. The death toll is already well past 800,000. Omicron is starting to spread - and you need a triple vaccination for good resistance to that. I don’t think it’s a case of if, but when.


This message is a reply to:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 20837
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 185 of 515 (889990)
12-19-2021 3:12 PM
Reply to: Message 183 by Tanypteryx
12-19-2021 12:09 PM


Tanyperyx writes:

I wonder if the U.S. will pass 1 million deaths from Covid in 2022?

Oh, without doubt, sometime around September is my guestimate.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
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 Message 186 by Tangle, posted 12-19-2021 4:23 PM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8552
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.5


(4)
Message 186 of 515 (889991)
12-19-2021 4:23 PM
Reply to: Message 185 by Percy
12-19-2021 3:12 PM


Depends how you count.

With the vaccines and new antivirals there's be fewer direct deaths from COVID than previous waves.

Our concern here is that because of omicron's much higher infection rate - something like x5 - our hospitals will be overcome with cases and a high percentage of medics and nurse will be ill and not working.

People will die that needn't from all the everyday causes.

It's not only deaths though, long covid is a nightmare too.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 185 by Percy, posted 12-19-2021 3:12 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 187 by jar, posted 12-19-2021 5:07 PM Tangle has taken no action
 Message 194 by Percy, posted 12-27-2021 9:54 AM Tangle has taken no action

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33957
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.3


(2)
Message 187 of 515 (889992)
12-19-2021 5:07 PM
Reply to: Message 186 by Tangle
12-19-2021 4:23 PM


There is also a very real economic and societal effect when facing something that shows infection rates like Omicron.

Even if there will not be as many direct deaths caused by omicron, the lost productivity and increased stress caused to those who must pick up the slack shouldn't be discounted.


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 186 by Tangle, posted 12-19-2021 4:23 PM Tangle has taken no action

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20837
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


(4)
Message 188 of 515 (890002)
12-21-2021 9:11 AM


The Covid Reality Hasn't Changed
For the past two weeks the US has been saying that omicron represents 3% of cases. Suddenly yesterday it jumped to 73%. Either reporting has severely fallen down on the job, or testing and analysis has.

When I first saw the 3% omicron number a couple weeks ago I projected it forward and estimated that it would be the dominant variant by mid-January, but I was using a replication rate of doubling every 4 days. Apparently omicron doubles every 2 days. I guess the higher replication rate should be expected in a society where people are still traveling on planes, trains and buses, eating in restaurants and bars, attending sporting events, and all the other normal activities of life.

Our society is about 20% people who know exactly what to do in a pandemic and are doing it. There's another 40% who wants to do the right thing but hasn't a clue what to do because of the cacophony of conflicting voices. And there's another 40% who believe a variety of false claims, like that the virus is fake or that the vaccine doesn't work or is dangerous or that masks don't work or that we shouldn't let the virus disrupt our lives.

Many supposedly responsible voices are advising that you can still visit loved ones during the Christmas holidays as long as you're vaccinated, as if they'd never heard of breakthrough cases. Here's one from yesterday's opinion section of the Post: No, vaccinated people should not cancel their holiday plans. That's dead wrong. YES, YOU SHOULD CANCEL YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS!!!!!

There are people out there like my son-in-law's cousin who don't believe the virus is dangerous and didn't get vaccinated and came down with covid and spent a week in the hospital near death. He recovered and still maintains the virus is no big deal. I believe he's typical of the virus-denier crowd where even a near death experience cannot change their minds. They've got too much invested.

This virus is not going away because everywhere in the world as soon as the numbers start coming down everything starts reopening. Virus deniers are everywhere, anti-maskers are everywhere, and anti-vaxxers are everywhere. We are doomed to live with this virus forever. The best we can hope for is that a very highly contagious variant emerges, far more contagious than anything out there so that it displaces all other variants, and that is also very mild.

For those who need reminding, YOU DO NOT WANT TO CATCH THIS VIRUS! At least 20% experience long term symptoms, and 1% die. In a few hours I'll be playing tennis with a friend who's got long covid. He'll last about 20 minutes and then have to stop, and we're only hitting, not playing. All he's doing is standing there and swinging a racket, occasionally taking a few steps when the ball isn't placed precisely to him. Nobody wants this, and there are many other long term symptoms, like loss of taste and smell, loss of kidney function, loss of liver function, loss of heart function, brain fog, and for men a drop in sperm count and decline in sexual function. Then there's the catastrophe of a cytokine storm where the body is attacked by its own immune system because the virus sends it into overdrive. These possible outcomes are why more and more long covid clinics are opening around the country.

We don't know enough about long covid yet. Many who come down with long covid only experience the symptoms months after they thought they'd fully recovered, so it's hard to know what percentage of people get it. The number who come down with long covid might be very high, possibly even above 50%. It's too soon to know.

Missing the holidays won't kill you. Celebrating them with others very well might.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 189 by nwr, posted 12-21-2021 1:57 PM Percy has seen this message

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6009
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


(2)
Message 189 of 515 (890015)
12-21-2021 1:57 PM
Reply to: Message 188 by Percy
12-21-2021 9:11 AM


Re: The Covid Reality Hasn't Changed
YES, YOU SHOULD CANCEL YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS!!!!!

My plans, all along, were to stay here and not go anywhere.

I'm not cancelling those plans.


Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 188 by Percy, posted 12-21-2021 9:11 AM Percy has seen this message

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33957
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 190 of 515 (890054)
12-23-2021 11:03 AM


Staying home alone
Well yesterday sister was notified that she was exposed to covid-19 from one family that came to the Christmas Pagent rehearsal and also to a two-year old that also tested positive as well as the parents of the two-year old. Also, my sister got a call from her daughter that the daughter was also exposed and under self-quarantine.

In the two former instances the parents knew before coming to the church that they and their kids tested positive for covid-19 but in the latter case my niece was simply trying to help.

One of the tenants in her apartment building has Alzheimer's and can be difficult to handle but she likes and trusts Jena so Jena was holding her hand and talking to her as they were taking her out to the ambulance. Jena also had her mask down since the old lady was frightened when she could not read faces; just voice was not enough to calm her down.

About an hour later Jena got a call from the family saying that when they got to the hospital the woman tested positive for covid-19.

Such is how the year will end.


My Website: My Website

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8552
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 191 of 515 (890058)
12-23-2021 11:38 AM


There's good news an bad news about this Omigod virus. Our boffins have found that it's between 30 and 70% less harmful (less likely to result in hospitalisation) than Delta but between 4 and 10 times more infectious.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3881
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 192 of 515 (890121)
12-26-2021 1:46 AM


See Trump shut down Covid-19 vaccine skeptic
Probably don't want to bother watching the whole thing, but I thought I should put this moment of Donald rational intelligence into the record (wow - as three consequtive words - "Donald rational intelligence").

One of the comments:

quote:
Wow. CNN giving props to Trump. Never thought I'd see that in my lifetime.

Moose


Replies to this message:
 Message 193 by Percy, posted 12-26-2021 10:10 AM Minnemooseus has taken no action

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20837
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


(2)
Message 193 of 515 (890124)
12-26-2021 10:10 AM
Reply to: Message 192 by Minnemooseus
12-26-2021 1:46 AM


Re: See Trump shut down Covid-19 vaccine skeptic
I didn't watch any of the video, but Trump seems truly torn between the need to follow his base while appearing to lead it, and to tout his vaccine achievements. To lead his base he should be warning people off his vaccines, but he's so proud of them he just can't bring himself to do it.

There's irony here. He's proud of his vaccines because he thinks developing vaccines was his idea, but there are probably few people in the world who don't think "develop a vaccine" when a new virus emerges.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 192 by Minnemooseus, posted 12-26-2021 1:46 AM Minnemooseus has taken no action

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20837
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 194 of 515 (890133)
12-27-2021 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 186 by Tangle
12-19-2021 4:23 PM


They can count excess mortality. As of today the total number of excess deaths in the US from all causes since 2/1/2020 is 930,653. By this measure we'll probably pass a million around April. See Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 186 by Tangle, posted 12-19-2021 4:23 PM Tangle has taken no action

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3349
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


(2)
Message 195 of 515 (890135)
12-27-2021 10:39 AM


Watching the news this morning showing people all upset because the cruise line didn't notify the passengers how many Covid cases there were onboard. And a bunch of ports wouldn't let them dock.

Gosh, who could have anticipated that? I feel so much sympathy...oh wait, no I don't.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


  
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