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Author Topic:   Massively important Texas governor's race in 2022.
Posts: 2092
Joined: 12-22-2015

Message 1 of 4 (890336)
01-01-2022 7:09 PM

Diane Solis, of the Dallas Morning News, showed poll results, on immigration, and they are charted in her November 2021 article on Gregg Abbott.

From a November poll:

50% of Texas fell the border wall is necessary for security.

But 48% of Texans support "permanent legal status" for illegal immigrants IF THEY ARE CHILDREN.

And an identical Sept poll:

51% of Texans support permanent legal status for children.

(I have been arguing for years that Democrats need to support child migrants. With nothing but hatred from the white Democrats posting here. For what it's worth, I hate the anti-immigrant Democrats that dominate this site, so our hatred is truely even.)

('Even Stephen')

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-02-2022 10:58 AM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Posts: 2092
Joined: 12-22-2015

Message 2 of 4 (890342)
01-02-2022 10:58 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by LamarkNewAge
01-01-2022 7:09 PM

Where does "Beto" stand (now) on tearing down the wall?
He said he would take the El Paso wall down, in 2019.

(He was not saying that during his close race against Ted Cruz)

But it did not stop Beto from endorsing Joe Biden, over Sanders.

If he flipped against tearing down the wall, then I hope the clown gets clobbered.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-01-2022 7:09 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Posts: 2092
Joined: 12-22-2015

Message 3 of 4 (890361)
01-02-2022 10:37 PM

Texas has the best eligible vote demographic change (2016-20)
The changes are the best looking, for Democrats, of any state I have seen.

(Minority population growth is a different issue, than what I am about to present)

Texas had 18,047,000 eligible voters in 2020, up from 16,977,000 in 2016.

States like Nevada, Florida, Arizona, saw whites gain hundreds of thousands in increased eligible voters from 2016 to 2020. Colorado and New Mexico also saw white eligible voters increase.

But the number of eligible non-Hispanic white eligible voters decreased 192,000, in Texas, from 2016 to 2020.

Whites made up 9,182,000 eligible voters in 2020

Blacks were 2,245,000. (Up 175,000 from 2016)

Native Americans were 85,000 ( up 12,000 from 2016)

Asians were 897,000 (up 250,000)

Hispanics were 5,393,000 (up 756,000)

Mixed race folks write 245,000 (up 85,000)

2022 looks to be the first election where whites are an eligible voter plurality, as opposed to majority, in Texas. The minority population growth in the nation, and Texas, has slowed considerably, but eligible minority voters are increasing at a faster rate. Still slower than past projections.

Texas is looking to be a majority-minority eligible-voter state, while Arizona, Nevada, and Florida are still 60-40 (or a bit more) white, in eligible voters.

Democrats have been turning off just about every voter-group they possibly can, and Texas could be a case to study. They have a political opportunist-candidate for Governor, who probably helped Democrats loose the Hispanic vote in 2020 (His gun stance, plus his endorsement of Biden, helped turn off Sanders-supporting Rio Grande voters) so this is a race to watch.

(Beto is running as a border-security tough guy, according to Texas Tribune articles. He is now bragging about "deportation" policies he will support. In 2018, he spoke boldly for decriminalization of undocumented border crossings, and was critical of the wall. In 2019, he actually had the integrity to extent wall opposition to the next logical step of removing existing stretches of the existing wall. Now he is only offering the weak "no more wall" slogan, while running tough against immigration & immigrants)

Beto is a disgrace.

Posts: 2092
Joined: 12-22-2015

Message 4 of 4 (891077)
01-15-2022 5:52 PM

Why Republicans went from an 83-67 State House majority to 85 to 65, Nov 2021
District 118

First gain was in the 73% Hispanic district 118 (San Antonio).

Republican John Luhan won the early November special election 51% to 49%.

Biden won district 118 (with about 200,000 residents, prior to the redistricting process kicking in), in 2020, by 14%

District 31

This was an 80.7% Hispanic district that stretches from Rio Grand City, on the border, up to the outer edge of San Antonio, including parts of about 7 counties. The 2020 census estimate had the old district at 175,759 residents.

Hillary Clinton won the district by 13%, in 2016, but Trump destroyed Joe Biden by the same 13 point margin in 2020.

The newer district lines will have about 160,000 people in the district for future elections. Trump would have won the newer district by 25%, based on precinct's tallies.

The longtime conservative Democrat, Ryan Guillen, switched to the Republican party in mid November.

This district 31 was already a 50/50 district, though the 2016 & 2020 general elections produced lopsided victories for strange times. Now it is a solidly Republican district, but observers aren't sure how much the 2020 Trump performance can translate into down ballot races.

(Guillen won by 17 points in the 2020 race, while Trump won his district precincts by 13% the very same day)

Republicans are now in control of a 20 seat majority, in the lower chamber, while it was only a 16 seat pad after November 2020.

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