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Author Topic:   2022 house elections.
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 58 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 1 of 54 (891419)
01-29-2022 6:36 PM


I think Democrats have a 222 to 213 majority.

What member's races are most in play?

Maine congressman Jared Golden. Democrat:

Trump won his district by 7 points, in 2020 - the most Republican seat, for a Democratic party incumbent. Golden won the seat, in 2018, which Trump won by 11 (in 16), by running on an anti-war, pro single-payer healthcare, platform. He was described as a big Sanders supporter in 2016, who voted for Trump in the general.

Golden lost the November 2020 general election, to conservative Republican incumbent, Beuce Poliquin, 46% to 45%. But Maine, in 2016, became the first state to implement Instant Runoff Voting, and it was by voter referendum. It turned out that about 90% of third-party voters selected Golden as choice # 2, so golden won 51-49.

The Center for Votung and Democracy promoted this landmark vote reform for decades.

Golden has been forced, due to the dreadful turn of the Democratic party, to vote against the leadership as often as possible; against Nancy Pelosi's speakership, against gun control (though he was a big supporter in the past), against Medicare-for-all (though he cosponsored it in 2019), against Trump's 2020 impeachment (he supported the 2021 impeachment, however), against Build Back Better (due to $400 billion in tax breaks for the wealthy, and not enough progressive program spending),etc.

He won his reelection race, in 2020, 53 to 47.

The pro-labor, anti-war progressive is in the fight of his life, and that says alot for a veteran of both Iraq & Afghanistan.

(I predict that his race MIGHT decide which party controls the House)

Texas Congressman Vincent Gonzales. Democrat.

Trump won his Rio Grande Valley district by 3%. Actually Trump lost by 3%, in 2020 (Gonzales won by 3 against his Republican opponent), but Republicans immediately set about to create a new "GOP district" in the Rio Grande Valley, after the 2020 results encouraged the idea.

The tradeoff was to make another Rio Grande valley Democratic seat safe. Representative Filemon Vela's seat safe. Vila saw his district give Biden a scant 51 to 47 win over Trump. Republicans made it a 62 to 37% Biden v Trump seat. But it made a GOP leaning seat (the one Will Hurd held, before a Hispanic Republican won in 2020), in the Rio Grande Valley safe, and it made Democratic rep Henry Cuellar's seat a slightly less Democratic seat (a 7 point Biden win, instead of 10%), which could make it competitive if Cuellar loses his primary to a progressive challenge.

Filemon Vela left his gerrymandered safe-seat, and retired.

Vincent Gonzales moved to Vela's seat, and left his new GOP-leaning seat for somebody else to run in. Republicans are favored.

Where else do you think Democrats could loose?

Connor Lamb's seat should fall. Pennsylvania.

More, too.


  
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Message 2 of 54 (891458)
01-31-2022 7:41 AM


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LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 58 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 3 of 54 (891501)
02-01-2022 12:54 AM


Cuellar district 2020: 51.5 Biden, 47.3 Trump, now 7.5 Biden win, GOP is helping Cuel
I have good reason for thinking Biden won by 10, in 2020.

(Universal reports say 4.3%, now)

Media reports, at time, said so

Texas paper, months ago, said so.

Now, a 4.3% Biden win.

Just about the same as 4 other Rio Grand district races, in 2020.

Biden won the Vincent Gonzales district by 1.9%.

(The district Gerrymandered process turned it into a 3% Trump win)

Now thevCuellar district is a +7.5% Biden win in 2022.

A pro Cuellar district by the government gerrymander changes.

Jessica Cisneros lost by 2% in the Democrat party primaries last time.


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LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 58 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 4 of 54 (891502)
02-01-2022 12:55 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by LamarkNewAge
02-01-2022 12:54 AM


Re: Cuellar district 2020: 51.5 Biden, 47.3 Trump, now 7.5 Biden win, GOP is helping Cuel
Media said Biden won his district by 10%, in 2020.

Now they say it was 4%.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-01-2022 12:54 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 58 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 5 of 54 (892024)
02-22-2022 11:36 AM


A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
Henry Cuellar was first elected to his heavily Democratic Rio Grand Valley district in 2004, but his party shunned him for the first 4 to 5 years, considering him to be a DINO, who would soon seitch parties.

(He is the last state wide Democratic office holder, due yo Rick Perry appointing him to the Texas Secretary of State position)

(He was a big Bush supporter in the 2000 Bush/Gore race, despite being a Democratic state legislator for over a dozen years)

Now, in 2022, many members of his party fear that the Rio Grande Valley is undergoing a political realignment toward Republicans, and there is extreme nervousness that Cuellar's loss, to a progressive in the primary, could throw the seat to Republicans. This has been a safe Democratic seat. When Frank Tejeda died in 1997, Ciro Rodriguez easily won the seat agaisnt his Republican opponent. Both Tejeda and Rodriguez vited against the partial birth abortion ban.

Democrats could count on easy wins against the Republicans.

(Bush did beat Kerry 53% to 46%, in the district, in 2004, so it DID had some occasional flickers of Republican party support)

March 1 is the primary and Democrats are very nervous.


Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Theodoric, posted 02-22-2022 5:14 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 7422
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 6 of 54 (892025)
02-22-2022 5:14 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by LamarkNewAge
02-22-2022 11:36 AM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
March 1 is the primary and Democrats are very nervous.

No they're not.

If they were you would be posting some actual analysis that says that.


What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-22-2022 11:36 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-22-2022 9:09 PM Theodoric has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 58 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 7 of 54 (892026)
02-22-2022 9:09 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Theodoric
02-22-2022 5:14 PM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
You cant Google the last 1 to 7 day's stories?

You quoted my "nervous" line. I just about lifted that - verbatim - from recent national reports.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Theodoric, posted 02-22-2022 5:14 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 02-22-2022 10:54 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 9 by Theodoric, posted 02-23-2022 10:07 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 31 by Theodoric, posted 02-24-2022 12:06 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 7422
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 8 of 54 (892027)
02-22-2022 10:54 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by LamarkNewAge
02-22-2022 9:09 PM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
It is not up to me to research the source. You made the claim provide the evidence.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-22-2022 9:09 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 7422
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 9 of 54 (892030)
02-23-2022 10:07 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by LamarkNewAge
02-22-2022 9:09 PM


More lies
Either you don't know what verbatim means and somehow one story becomes multiple "reports" or you are a liar.

As you seem unwilling or unable to back your claims I did do some research. There is one report in the last 7 days that mentions anything about Democratic nervousness on this race. That is NPR and the quote is

quote:
Democrats across the country are keeping a nervous eye on this race.

FBI raid of South Texas congressman adds another element to a tough primary challenge

A bit different than what you claimed.
If you care to provide evidence to back you claim I will reconsider my position.


What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-22-2022 9:09 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by jar, posted 02-23-2022 11:24 AM Theodoric has not replied

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33957
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


(2)
Message 10 of 54 (892031)
02-23-2022 11:24 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by Theodoric
02-23-2022 10:07 AM


Good reasons to be nervous.
There's a very good reason for any progressive or humanitarians voter in Texas to be nervous.

It's a high possibility that they will not get to vote or if they do vote that their vote will not be counted.

I'm a typical example.

As I have done for the last decade or so, applied to vote by mail. I'm well over 65 and with some health limitations but this year my application to vote by mail has not been acknowledged and I have not been sent this ballot.

Polls open in 6 days but there's the rub.

If you have applied to vote by mail and show up at your polling place you can only place a provisional vote, one that does not get counted until all of the mail-in and in-person votes have been tallied. If you bring your unopened ballot with you to the poll you can place a regular vote.

But I have no way to find out what my vote by mail status is until I show up at the poll and if I'm listed as voting by mail (which is how I've voted in many past years) then I need to hand over my mail-in ballot which has not been sent to me.

The current three stooges in Austin and our fascist Republican legislators have done a very efficient job of denying the right to vote to the majority of Liberals and POC in this State.

Edited by jar, : fix sub-title


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3437
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.3


(2)
Message 11 of 54 (892032)
02-23-2022 12:02 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by jar
02-23-2022 11:24 AM


Re: Good reasons to be nervous.
The only way the fucking republicans can win is by cheating and stealing elections. We're just another SHITHOLE COUNTRY!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by jar, posted 02-23-2022 11:24 AM jar has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by xongsmith, posted 02-23-2022 1:08 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2243
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 3.7


(1)
Message 12 of 54 (892033)
02-23-2022 1:08 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by Tanypteryx
02-23-2022 12:02 PM


Re: Good reasons to be nervous.
the entire Reptile Party needs to be exterminated, like the Nazis in Germany.
There needs to be laws against being a Reptile, raising Reptile money, doing Reptile things.

Period.

Not in my soon to be 76 years have they ever sunk so vile and so evil.
The most Clear and Present Danger to the U.S.A.


"I'm the Grim Reaper now, Mitch. Step aside."

- xongsmith, 5.7d


This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-23-2022 12:02 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-23-2022 1:40 PM xongsmith has not replied

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33957
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 13 of 54 (892034)
02-23-2022 1:23 PM


Well I finally got through to someone in the local election office and they rejected my application to vote by mail.

They say they sent a rejection notice but I never received anything from them.

I will have to try to vote in person even though the location requires long walks and long lines.


My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-23-2022 1:57 PM jar has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3437
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 14 of 54 (892035)
02-23-2022 1:40 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by xongsmith
02-23-2022 1:08 PM


Re: Good reasons to be nervous.
There needs to be laws against being a Reptile, raising Reptile money, doing Reptile things.

But Reptiles are such a fascinating Class of Vertebrates!

How about Repellants?

quote:
There needs to be laws against being a Repellant, raising Repellant money, doing Repellant things.

Not in my soon to be 76 years have they ever sunk so vile and so evil.
The most Clear and Present Danger to the U.S.A.

Does anyone remember the last good thing they did for the country? It's been a fucking long time. Their behavior for 3 decades has become increasingly more anarchist. If they gain power again they will kill every single good thing about America. (I'll be 76 on my next birthday too.)


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by xongsmith, posted 02-23-2022 1:08 PM xongsmith has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by dwise1, posted 02-23-2022 2:10 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3437
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 15 of 54 (892036)
02-23-2022 1:57 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by jar
02-23-2022 1:23 PM


I'm glad you got through.

I will have to try to vote in person even though the location requires long walks and long lines.

Those wheeled walkers that you can sit on look like they would be appropriate, along with snacks and water.

We have been voting exclusively by mail for a long time here in Oregon. History of postal voting in Oregon

quote:
  • 1981 The Oregon Legislative Assembly approves vote-by-mail for local elections, at the discretion of the county; at least one polling place in the county had to remain open on election day.[2]

  • 1987 Vote-by-mail becomes permanent, with the majority of Oregon's counties making use of it.

  • 1989 A House bill to extend vote-by-mail to include the 1990 primary elections was defeated in a 33–27, non-party-line vote.[2]

  • 1992 Governor's Task Force on Local Government Services identifies statewide vote-by-mail as one of the most significant opportunities to save money on conducting elections.[3]

  • 1995 Oregon becomes the first state to conduct a federal primary election totally by mail.

  • 1996 U.S Senator Ron Wyden is elected by mail with a 66% turnout, succeeding Bob Packwood.

  • 1998 Oregonians confirm their overwhelming support for vote-by-mail by passing Measure 60.

    2000 Oregon becomes the first state in the nation to conduct a presidential election entirely by mail. About 80% of registered voters participated.

  • 2019 Oregon becomes the first state not to require paid postage on ballot return envelopes.

  • Measure 60 eliminated restrictions on vote-by-mail and established it as the single form of voting for elections in Oregon. It also required vote-by-mail to be used for biennial primaries and general elections as well as eliminating polling places.


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by jar, posted 02-23-2022 1:23 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by jar, posted 02-23-2022 2:28 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
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