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Author Topic:   2022 house elections.
LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
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Message 46 of 54 (892107)
02-25-2022 11:54 PM


Is the Rio Grande Valley conservative? Some important evidence.
I just noticed that Texas only has 31 state Senators, which means that there are more constituents/residents in a state Senate district than a U.S. congressional district.

Just after the 2010 census reapportionment, Texas state Senate districts all represented 806,000 people.

So I looked into the Rio Grande Valley districts. I found one of them. It is Senate district 27.

Represented by Eddie Lucio jr. since 1991.

Its turns out he is the most conservative Democrat in the 31 member body. He is a major ally of far-right Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. Patrick campaigns for his reelection!

He won a Democratic primary battle, in 2020, against a progressive, with 54%.

He is retiring now.

Hardly evidence that diminishes my description of the RGV as "conservative".

(But Biden did win 57.6% of the RGV vote while Trump got 41.6%)


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 47 of 54 (892175)
03-01-2022 11:15 PM


Cisernos has been at slightly-above 50% all night. Cuellar slghtly below 45% all nil
Around 2/3 of the vote is in.

Cisneros might just win outright, without a need to win a runoff.

Republicans are headed to a runnoff. Some lady named Cassy (forgot last name) leads the #2 candidate about 30% to 15%.

Most Democrats are going to get what they want. Candidate Jessica Cisernos.

And thry get to field her in a non-gerrymandered seat.

It is just so strange that Republicans took a competitive seat, and made it more Democratic. It went from a 4.3% Biden win (old district from last decade) to a Biden win of around 7.3%, I believe.

Nobody can bitch about this district.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 48 of 54 (892178)
03-02-2022 12:15 AM


Now it is 48 to 48. Cuellar is ahead by 224 votes.
The only solace for progressives is that the entire district is - basically - Democrats.

But, one wonders if Cisneros really has that much of a chance in a general election,with Republicans voting. Plus independents.

She said Cuellar is "not a Democrat", so I wonder what she thinks of the 48% that are voting for him?

She waged all out war on not only Cuellar, but pretty much anyone who supported him.

How can anti-abortion Democrats not feel like Cisneros' rhetoric, in this race, was not a cannonball fired right at them?

I want to see her win just so we can study the aftermath. I feel like I am such a sociologist, when I watch this race.


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 49 of 54 (892179)
03-02-2022 1:33 AM


Turnout is not massively higher in Texas-28 Democratic primary verses GOP primary tur
So far, about 42,000 votes have been counted in the Democratic primary.

28,000 in Republican primary.

Since Democrats must outnumber Republicans by 5 to 1, in Texas U.S. Congressional District 28, that means there should be a ton more Democratic votes to be counted.

(Otherwise, Democrats look like a party with little steam, with such a pathetic turnout - considering the impressive race, anyway)

Cisneros is ahead, 49.0% to 46.4%.


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 50 of 54 (892181)
03-02-2022 2:52 AM


With 95% of precincts in, Cuellar is up 48.5% to 46.8%. Runoff seems certain.
The Republican & Democratic 28th district primaries are both at "95%" of precincts reporting.

Democratic primary voters are 48,586.

Republicans are 29,624.

Typically, the total number of primary voters is seen as an important indicator of party strength, thus electoral chances.


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 51 of 54 (892182)
03-02-2022 2:55 AM


With 52,010 votes, Cuellar has 26,016. 50.0 for Cuellar now!
Wow.

  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 52 of 54 (892183)
03-02-2022 3:15 AM


Odd numbers in primary.
Right now, Buzzfeed had Cuellar at 49.98%

26,016 out of 52,050.

The New York Times was my source for the 52,010 number.

Now it has the total vote set back to under 50,000, and Cuellar is back fown to 48%.

Huh?


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 53 of 54 (892184)
03-02-2022 3:19 AM


Associated Press just projected a runoff race between Cuellar and Cisneros.
O.k.

  
LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 54 of 54 (892196)
03-02-2022 10:33 AM


Cisneros won Bexar county (San Antonio voters) 73.4% to 20.7%. They saved her.
The 2 Rio Grande Valley counties went big for Cuellar. He won Starr with 69.9% to 27.5%, and Webb 59.5% to 37.5%, which solidly demonstrates the conservativism of the valley.

Eddie Lucio won the other part of the valley, against a major progressive challenge in 2020. Hildago is his stomping ground.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
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