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Author Topic:   Trump and Trump supporters keep using the Y2K Fallacy, and it is driving me crazy
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 7 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 151 of 190 (890155)
12-27-2021 10:52 PM
Reply to: Message 150 by LamarkNewAge
12-27-2021 10:50 PM


Re: Ideas For Sale
Americans are the only religious people in the world.

Idiot.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 150 by LamarkNewAge, posted 12-27-2021 10:50 PM LamarkNewAge has taken no action

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3342
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 152 of 190 (890157)
12-27-2021 11:21 PM


Twilight Zone
We have everything we need from some recent ravings for some new episodes.

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19607
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 153 of 190 (890177)
12-28-2021 11:43 AM
Reply to: Message 147 by Sarah Bellum
12-27-2021 6:46 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

People posting on Facebook post links all the time, to actual facts as often as posters do here.


Bullshit. Facebook has links to opinions more than facts.

"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 147 by Sarah Bellum, posted 12-27-2021 6:46 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 156 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 3:03 PM ringo has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19607
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 154 of 190 (890178)
12-28-2021 11:45 AM
Reply to: Message 150 by LamarkNewAge
12-27-2021 10:50 PM


Re: Ideas For Sale
LamrkNewAge writes:

Who on earth ever heard of Nixon?


Those of us who are over twelve years old.

"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 150 by LamarkNewAge, posted 12-27-2021 10:50 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 158 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-29-2022 11:34 PM ringo has replied

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 794
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 155 of 190 (891412)
01-29-2022 3:02 PM
Reply to: Message 149 by AZPaul3
12-27-2021 9:05 PM


Re: Ideas For Sale
So, what do you think, is it useful in dealing with such people to cry wolf? To make alarmist predictions that won't stand the test of time?

If yes, why?

If no, what's your alternative?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 149 by AZPaul3, posted 12-27-2021 9:05 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 157 by AZPaul3, posted 01-29-2022 3:21 PM Sarah Bellum has seen this message
 Message 161 by Tanypteryx, posted 01-31-2022 12:45 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 794
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 156 of 190 (891413)
01-29-2022 3:03 PM
Reply to: Message 153 by ringo
12-28-2021 11:43 AM


That may well be. But a casual glance at this evcforum.net website also will show an inordinate, nay heaping pile of opinions (with or without links).

Even more, a lot of the posts could be characterized as "blather" rather than being dignified with the title of "opinion."

Look at your own post, you know, the cleverly argued one beginning "Bullshit. . . . "


This message is a reply to:
 Message 153 by ringo, posted 12-28-2021 11:43 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 159 by ringo, posted 01-31-2022 10:50 AM Sarah Bellum has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6733
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 157 of 190 (891415)
01-29-2022 3:21 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by Sarah Bellum
01-29-2022 3:02 PM


Re: Ideas For Sale
So, what do you think, is it useful in dealing with such people to cry wolf?

This and your other questions were answered in the message you are responding to. Consider my Message 149 copied and pasted here.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 3:02 PM Sarah Bellum has seen this message

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 7 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 158 of 190 (891424)
01-29-2022 11:34 PM
Reply to: Message 154 by ringo
12-28-2021 11:45 AM


Re: Ideas For Sale
I forgot what we were discussing.

Care to elucidate?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 154 by ringo, posted 12-28-2021 11:45 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 160 by ringo, posted 01-31-2022 10:55 AM LamarkNewAge has taken no action

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19607
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 159 of 190 (891468)
01-31-2022 10:50 AM
Reply to: Message 156 by Sarah Bellum
01-29-2022 3:03 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

But a casual glance at this evcforum.net website also will show an inordinate, nay heaping pile of opinions (with or without links).


And a casual glance at the phone book will tell you there are a lot of people named Johnson.

You need more than a casual glance.

The point being that Facebook has a much, much, much smaller proportion of well-reasoned and fact-based information. And to be fair, Facebook does not exist to provide well-reasoned and fact-based information.

So your comparison between EvC Forum and Facebook is ludicrous.


"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 3:03 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 165 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:34 PM ringo has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19607
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 160 of 190 (891470)
01-31-2022 10:55 AM
Reply to: Message 158 by LamarkNewAge
01-29-2022 11:34 PM


Re: Ideas For Sale
LamarkNewAge writes:

I forgot what we were discussing.
Care to elucidate?


Follow the links.

In Message 150, you asked, "Who on earth ever heard of Nixon?" In Message 154 I answered.


"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 158 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-29-2022 11:34 PM LamarkNewAge has taken no action

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3342
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(4)
Message 161 of 190 (891476)
01-31-2022 12:45 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by Sarah Bellum
01-29-2022 3:02 PM


A Couple Questions for Ms Brain
So, what do you think, is it useful in dealing with such people to cry wolf? To make alarmist predictions that won't stand the test of time?
If yes, why?

If no, what's your alternative?

1.) Do you think scientists should report the results of their research?

2.) Do you think they should form conclusions and make predictions based on the results of their research?

3.) Do you think they should defend their original predictions even when further research refines their results or shows their original predictions are no longer valid?

4.) Do you think scientists should stop doing research into controversial subjects or that they should withhold their results and conclusions?

5.) Do you think that scientists should sound the alarm when they can see an obvious global disaster looming where some of the worst effects of that disaster might be modified by some changes in behavior by the human population on this planet?

Do you have any answers or alternatives?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 3:02 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 166 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:36 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2223
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 3.3


(1)
Message 162 of 190 (891558)
02-03-2022 10:52 AM


what are they getting wrong?
Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

looks like Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth is spot on.


"I'm the Grim Reaper now, Mitch. Step aside."

- xongsmith, 5.7d


  
Taq
Member
Posts: 8523
Joined: 03-06-2009


(2)
Message 163 of 190 (891598)
02-04-2022 4:42 PM
Reply to: Message 146 by Sarah Bellum
12-27-2021 6:45 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

I think this started with a discussion about global warming predictions that turned out to be inaccurate.

Why don't people accept the accurate predictions? It was predicted that increasing atmospheric CO2 levels would cause an increase in global temps, and that has indeed happened. Why do people dispute it?

For example, Svante Arrhenius did the first crude calculations for how much global temperatures would rise with a given amount of CO2. He predicted a 5-6C increase in temperatures if the amount of CO2 doubled. This was clear back in 1898.

Right now, we are about 1.1C above 1880 levels with a ~50% increase in CO2 levels, and we really haven't hit temperature equilibrium yet. Even given Arrhenius' crude calculations back in 1898, we are about where we would expect to be.

We have known about the risks of CO2 for over 100 years. It isn't a mystery. The real question is why people want to deny the basic science?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 146 by Sarah Bellum, posted 12-27-2021 6:45 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 167 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:42 PM Taq has taken no action

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20824
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


(6)
Message 164 of 190 (891622)
02-05-2022 4:06 PM
Reply to: Message 146 by Sarah Bellum
12-27-2021 6:45 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

I think this started with a discussion about global warming predictions that turned out to be inaccurate.

How accurate do you want your predictions of future world disaster to be? If they're off by 20% or 30%, is that good enough? And does the direction of error matter? If the error is that it happens sooner will you accept the prediction despite the error, while if the error is that it happens later will you feel free to ignore it?

And what if they're off by 50% or 75%? "Gee, our portion of the country won't be uninhabitable while we're still alive, so we can ignore it." "There won't be global famine while we're still alive, so we can ignore it." "People being forced out of their homelands and causing global war won't happen while we're still alive, so we can ignore it."

If you want to know if climate change is real, ask real estate brokers in Miami. A significant factor in the value of property there now is ground level elevation, the higher the better. I can just hear the sales pitch for the higher elevations: "Eventually it will be your own private island!"

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 146 by Sarah Bellum, posted 12-27-2021 6:45 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 168 by Sarah Bellum, posted 03-05-2022 3:52 PM Percy has replied

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 794
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 165 of 190 (892322)
03-05-2022 3:34 PM
Reply to: Message 159 by ringo
01-31-2022 10:50 AM


Perhaps FaceBook has less "information" in relation to chatter compared to evcforum (though the fact that the name of the forum implies that evolution is something to be disputed indicates that . . . perhaps not), but even so, what is your problem? Did someone cite a post from FaceBook that got your goat?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 159 by ringo, posted 01-31-2022 10:50 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 172 by ringo, posted 03-07-2022 10:54 AM Sarah Bellum has seen this message

  
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