The War in Europe

Earlier I said that once Putin has Ukraine then he'll begin pecking away at other nearby countries like Poland. He's already begun: Russia Threatens Poland in Lengthy Letter Days Before Joe Biden's Visit, written by deputy chairman of the Russian security council Dmitry Medvedev and former Russian president and prime minister on his Telegram channel:

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"The interests of the citizens of Poland have been sacrificed due to Russophobia of 'mediocre politicians' and their 'puppeteers from across the ocean' with clear signs of senile insanity.
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"Everything that Poland could lose due to its long-term pathological Russophobia has already been lost.
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"Poland forgets Soviet Army liberated it from Nazi occupation—instead, Soviet 'occupation' is equated with Nazism—this is a deceitful and disgusting rhetoric. [Abandoning Russian fossil fuels has] already caused serious damage to the economy of this country.
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"The same applies to many other steps, which are based not on the economy, but on politicking under the guise of 'de-Russification'. But now it is much more important for the Polish elites to swear allegiance to their overlord - America than to help their own citizens, so they will constantly support the fire of hatred for the enemy of Russia. [Poles will gain] absolutely nothing [by doing this].
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"Hatred of Russia [doesn't] contribute to well-being and tranquility."

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Medvedev seems to think Poles have forgotten about the Soviet Union dividing Poland between itself and Germany at the beginning of WWII, and how Poland suffered under years of Soviet communist domination.Just wanted to note this for anyone who believes Putin will stop at the NATO countries.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Correct some bad editing.

Will no one rid us of this meddlesome Tzar?

Putin can say anything he likes, NATO cannot accept ANY incursion into any NATO territory. It's politically impossible. To do so would put the entire NATO agreement in peril.

I think NATO might be your Maginot Line. Don't underestimate Europe's willingness to seek accommodation with a resurgent and expanded Russia after tempers and rhetoric have cooled.--Percy

Russia's message to Poland is empty threat and political bluster. The performance of the Russian military is showing it is no threat to NATO on the ground or in the air.Tsar Vladimir the Condemned can only move on Poland with nukes since the rest of his military has shown itself to be incompetent. I think he would be having some deep second thoughts about any move on NATO or anywhere else he may have been looking.

Not a great example. The Maginot line was supposed to be something that would physically stop an invasion. NATO is a political organisation - an attack on any member is an attack on ALL members.It's just not going to happen, not with China out there too. Don't overestimate Russian capability - NATO's forces dwarf Russia's and their incompetence against a trained modern army is being demonstrated now.And their economy is tiny - the size of Spain - before the invasion. They couldn't sustain a war against the West for any time at all. They're toast, but poor old Ukraine is going to pay for NATO's awakening.

And pay they will. Putin can torture Ukraine for months the same way Stalin did and NATO can do nothing but scream.

I think they're doing quite a lot, just stopping short of actually fighting. The defensive arms we're shipping has prevented Russia controlling the air and hundred of tanks and command and control stuff have been taken out. The sanctions will eventually cripple them and there's an awful lot of battlefield intelligence and cyber going on that we're not being told about.

I believe we have discussed this, hypothetically. Message 345This addendum is rather disconcerting.The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine Into a Nuclear War Zone - The New York Times

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“It feels horrible to talk about these things,” Dr. Kühn said in an interview. “But we have to consider that this is becoming a possibility.”

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If Tzar Vladimir the Condemned turned this way NATO could do nothing but scream. China would do nothing but shake a finger.Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

It's an attempt to influence political attitudes within Poland, just as they did during the 2016 presidential election in the US. Russia does not really know what the endgame will be at this point. They're just stirring the pot and will react to what happens in ways that manifest to their advantage. Things that Russia will encourage to happen in Poland is causing unrest and influencing the election of politicians less pro-NATO. Russia doesn't have to militarily move on Poland if its elected leaders choose to reduce NATO's presence in their country or even withdraw from NATO.And what precisely is the resolve of NATO? Right now? Pretty strong. A couple years from now when Ukraine has settled in as a Russian satellite, Europe's need for fossil fuels continues, and the influence of Putin fellow travelers like Orbán in Hungary and Erdoğan in Turkey, both NATO members and friendly with Russia, has increased? Probably not so much.--Percy

I think you may be underestimating the shock Europe just went through. That fear all along NATO's eastern border is palpapal. Already the Europeans are increasing their military expenditures and reassessing their future military budgets. This is going to cause panic in Brussels for multiple generations. They are going to gear up bigtime.

It's a terrible example, because it's not an example but an analogy. You hold up NATO like it was some kind of shield of invincibility, just as the French held up the Maginot Line. What's not going to happen? A Russian frontal assault on NATO? Now? No, of course not. No one suggested that.Whatever happens will be preceded by years of maneuvering and undermining and strategies not yet imagined that are informed by the mistakes Putin made this time around in underestimating NATO resolve.Putin's goals are clear, and we shouldn't fool ourselves into believing we're safe as did the French behind their Maginot Line and the British across their channel. You're only thinking militarily. This is geopolitic on a grand scale, and the military is only a small part of it. You're not considering other aspects, the kinds of things that cause something to happen like Navalny getting sentenced to nine more years today, or like Donald Trump possibly getting elected again. How hard do you think Donald Trump will make it for NATO to oppose a Russian takeover of Moldova or Poland? There are many things yet undreamt of that could happen that don't involve firing a shot, and Putin is over there plotting while we say to ourselves, "What, me worry? We've got NATO!" Now add the economies of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, either as puppet states or allies. Suddenly Russia is the 9th biggest economic block in the world.--Percy

I think the bigger question is whether the EU and NATO nations will continue to trust the US, particularly if Trump remains an influential political reality.If the Republicans gain additional representation in the bi-elections and there is a reasonable possibility of Trump running yet again for the Presidency, can Europe or any other nation count on any form of rational behavior from the US?Edited by jar, : is ---> if

I was being kind, but if you insist, it's a terrible analogy. The Maginot line was a physical defence structure that was simply walked around. NATO can't be bypassed - it's binary, an attack on one is an attack on all. It is, but unlike the Maginot line it can't be circumvented. It's a promise. NATO has to make others believe that they will act on the promise if one of their members is attacked. Their actions today are showing that's real. There won't be years of Putin doing anything - he's over; he miscalculated, he's lost, either quickly or slowly, he and Russia are now out of the global picture - he can no longer win.

I don't trust us!