Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
5 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,815 Year: 3,072/9,624 Month: 917/1,588 Week: 100/223 Day: 11/17 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   The War in Europe
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(2)
Message 729 of 995 (894012)
04-28-2022 8:02 PM
Reply to: Message 721 by AZPaul3
04-27-2022 10:00 AM


Re: Going Postal
AZPaul3 writes:
It’s madness, of course, but the first flash, and its retaliation, may clarify his untenable position for him.
That MADness has prevented a nuclear exchange for decades.
Having spent my grade school years tucked under my desk with my head between my legs, I definitely don't relish the new depth to the nuclear shadow.
But Putin will rattle his missiles with every act of aggression. It really is as simple as the schoolyard bully: resist, and it may go hard for you; submit, and it will for sure go hard for you.
It's generally best practice to punch the bully in the nose right off the bat. It provides clarity.
Having watched the spectacular failure of Russian tanks in Ukraine, with their "Jack-in-the-box" design flaw (shells and missiles carried in the turret), making any direct hit a devastating blow, I wonder how much confidence Putin can have in his launch capabilities. Some Russian American friends tell me no one in Russia expects anything to work, largely due to corruption and cronyism.
I suspect the moment Putin decided to go nuclear would be the most hazardous of his career. Straight up madness even gave Kevin McCarthy a moment of sanity.
One general. One shot.
But I don't think he'll go there. Faced with sustained painful, expensive resistance, he will declare victory for domestic consumption and try to keep whatever he has occupied, ready to try again later.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 721 by AZPaul3, posted 04-27-2022 10:00 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 730 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 8:39 PM Omnivorous has replied
 Message 732 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-28-2022 9:09 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 731 of 995 (894015)
04-28-2022 9:07 PM
Reply to: Message 730 by AZPaul3
04-28-2022 8:39 PM


Re: Going Postal
quote:
That's why the table is so long.
Too funny and probably true -- but he has to sit with his back to something.
In 1979 I worked for the ROK government. The country was ruled with an iron hand by the authoritarian Park Chung Hee and had been for years.
One morning I walked through the gate and froze before armored personnel carriers with manned gun emplacements, because the director of the Korean CIA shot President Park in the head the night before in a drunken quarrel.
Like Bugs sez, one never knows, do one?

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 730 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 8:39 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 736 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 10:24 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 733 of 995 (894017)
04-28-2022 9:36 PM
Reply to: Message 732 by Tanypteryx
04-28-2022 9:09 PM


Re: Going Postal
Tanypteryx writes:
Someone remind me how we can tell we won the Cold War?
The USSR collapsed. The world didn't go BOOM despite near-constant regional proxy wars -- that was about the best we could hope for...
There's corruption in all human endeavors. But our weapon systems work. We spotted the keen vulnerability of Russian armor decades ago, and designed our counters accordingly. The Russian designs remained static.
Putin thinks the west is the putz who's gonna give up the lunch money. He thought his WWII-vintage conventional forces were the new irresistible blitzkrieg.
He's being re-educated.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 732 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-28-2022 9:09 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(1)
Message 735 of 995 (894019)
04-28-2022 9:57 PM
Reply to: Message 734 by Theodoric
04-28-2022 9:44 PM


Re: Going Postal
Theodoric writes:
Personally, I think Vlad will use nukes in Ukraine.
I don't think Putin is mad, just evil.
He dreams of a return to Soviet-era glories. If his current borders were threatened, he'd go nukes, but that would spell defeat for his dream. Stymied, he will wait like a patient spider for another opportunity.
Evil is never eliminated. It always returns.
Ask Frodo.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 734 by Theodoric, posted 04-28-2022 9:44 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 738 of 995 (894022)
04-28-2022 10:41 PM
Reply to: Message 736 by AZPaul3
04-28-2022 10:24 PM


Re: Going Postal
Given his KGB alma mater familiarity with all forms of assassination, I'm surprised there is no bulletproof shield and pressurized seal across the table.
I didnt really doubt the purpose of the long table, but I very much doubt he will die of natural causes.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 736 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 10:24 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 739 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 10:49 PM Omnivorous has not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(2)
Message 741 of 995 (894025)
04-28-2022 11:04 PM
Reply to: Message 737 by Tanypteryx
04-28-2022 10:36 PM


Re: Going Postal
Tanypteryx writes:
First off, send all his republican supporters in Congress to Moscow as a permanent peace delegation. Next, nuke Moscow.
Hold the nukes! Just drop them into Mariupol.
It's ironic the GOP longs so for a 1950s style U.S. They'd all face charges.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 737 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-28-2022 10:36 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 742 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 11:20 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 744 of 995 (894030)
04-29-2022 5:25 AM
Reply to: Message 742 by AZPaul3
04-28-2022 11:20 PM


Re: Lost
AZPaul3 writes:
Omni, say what?
Oops. I suspect my sloppy, indeterminate "them" may be the culprit.
I meant drop the GOP into Mariupol rather than Moscow -- let the Putin-admiring GOP get to know the Russian bear from the perspective of the mauled.
Then it struck me that in my lifetime, the conservatives who want to roll back social and political changes to circa 1950 have moved from the Red Scare to bro love of the chief commie -- that definitely wouldn't have played in 1950.
Just now, patted awake by 4 hungry cats, it strikes me that the GOP's morphing of Putin into a savior of traditional masculinity mirrors the emergence of a muscular, combative Christ among the evangelicals ... likewise the meme of Trump's fat head superimposed on an AK-47 armed, Rocky-style body...
The reactionary right feels unmanned. They would burn the world to get their groove back.
The tigers being fed, I get to sleep another hour.
Edited by Omnivorous, : No reason given.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 742 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2022 11:20 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 747 by ringo, posted 04-29-2022 11:55 AM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 748 of 995 (894043)
04-29-2022 12:21 PM
Reply to: Message 747 by ringo
04-29-2022 11:55 AM


Re: Lost
ringo writes:
And yet his weapon of choice is poison, traditionally a woman's weapon.
And he does that bareback Lady Godiva thing.
Like their closed-mouth response to Cawthorn's public lingerie, the GOP just hates to attack someone in the Party.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 747 by ringo, posted 04-29-2022 11:55 AM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 753 of 995 (894081)
04-30-2022 9:14 AM
Reply to: Message 751 by AZPaul3
04-30-2022 3:02 AM


AZPaul3 writes:
The Russian would have to do so with their inventory of weapons severely depleted and restocking slow in coming and still many months away.
...
Putin could mobilize his nation and in their usual incompetent and vodka-induced way try to steamroll over Ukraine with rusted popguns and lots of body bags. He can try. He can double down yet again. May even make some progress until he outruns his forward supply line ... again.
Russia's rulers -- Putin and his oligarchs -- relied on extraction industries to fund their graft, sumptuary lives, and enough common store shelf goods to maintain a passive public. As a consequence, their industrial base withered. Even if their supply lines were high speed highways, untouched by the amazing Ukrainians, they will struggle to provide basic gear and food to their troops.
Already they depend on plunder for food in Ukraine.
Your supply lines could be right there with you, but that doesn't help much when the pipeline is dry.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 751 by AZPaul3, posted 04-30-2022 3:02 AM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(1)
Message 756 of 995 (894085)
04-30-2022 10:49 AM
Reply to: Message 754 by Percy
04-30-2022 10:09 AM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
Percy writes:
I don't understand the confidence about the Ukraine conflict.
Your subtitle is ever-valuable advice. Putin apparently didn't get it.
I'm equal parts dismayed by the impossible odds faced by Ukraine and amazed by their successes to date; much discussion has naturally focused on how this could happen. But left to their own devices, the end is not in doubt.
But that is not what is happening. Putin expected a short, 'special operation' -- instead, we now have a West vs. Russia proxy war.
In 1940, one might have wondered how Hitler could possibly lose that war. He managed to do that by opening unnecessary fronts, by lengthening his list of opponents, and by making strategic decisions based on delusional thinking.
I don't think Russians are stupid or incompetent. I do think nationalistic, autocratic regimes, by their nature, make stupid and incompetent policy decisions, especially in times of war. Autocrats silence dissent in their own circles. Putin had no one willing to warn him against his cockiness.
Declared U.S. goals in Ukraine include weakening the Russian military to inhibit future adventures. I expect that to succeed. There will be little left of Ukraine.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 754 by Percy, posted 04-30-2022 10:09 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 757 by ringo, posted 04-30-2022 11:40 AM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 758 of 995 (894088)
04-30-2022 12:10 PM
Reply to: Message 757 by ringo
04-30-2022 11:40 AM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
ringo writes:
Ukraine is the sacrificial lamb that saves the rest of us.
I fear it is so. My heart aches for them.
If I was the 20-something vet I once was, I'd go. We Americans are a combative lot. How we longed for a just war!

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 757 by ringo, posted 04-30-2022 11:40 AM ringo has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 759 by dwise1, posted 04-30-2022 1:11 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


Message 760 of 995 (894090)
04-30-2022 1:55 PM
Reply to: Message 759 by dwise1
04-30-2022 1:11 PM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
Malcolm has participated in a panel discussion on WAMC for several years. Before he joined the Legion, he did live calls to the panel from Ukraine. He did another after he signed up. When asked what he'd tell would be volunteers, he said if you can run two miles in boots while being shelled, come on down. I can still do that.
He's 60.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 759 by dwise1, posted 04-30-2022 1:11 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(4)
Message 763 of 995 (894093)
04-30-2022 3:28 PM
Reply to: Message 762 by Phat
04-30-2022 2:23 PM


Re: Nuclear Winter and Sobering realities of the fragility of the Biosphere
Phat writes:
I am soberly realistic regarding the future of humanity. And I am not as blindly idealistic as are some of you.
I haven't been back long, but haven't seen any blind idealism about the future from anyone. What sort of thing did you mean?
It is far from only being the fault of the Republicans, for example.
They do seem to over-achieve.
Humanity itself is fully culpable.
Nope. That's Original Sin. We each bear our own moral burdens, and no one else's.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 762 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 2:23 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 764 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 4:02 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(1)
Message 766 of 995 (894096)
04-30-2022 4:11 PM
Reply to: Message 764 by Phat
04-30-2022 4:02 PM


Re: Nuclear Winter and Sobering realities of the fragility of the Biosphere
I see.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 764 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 4:02 PM Phat has not replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3978
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.3


(1)
Message 779 of 995 (894114)
05-02-2022 8:01 AM
Reply to: Message 777 by Percy
05-02-2022 7:40 AM


Re: Jes' Sayin'
You put me in mind of my favorite misattributed quote, often ascribed to Shakespeare or the Bible.
quote:
On the origin of the quote "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt," which has been wrongly attributed to both Abraham Lincoln and Mark Twain
The earliest evidence that I was able to find was a 1907 book by Maurice Switzer. And it seems to contain a lot of original material and it includes the statement "It is better to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, than to talk and remove all doubt of it." So it's slightly different phrasing, but I believe that is what evolved to generate the modern common version.
--from Garson O"Toole's book, "Hemingway Didn't Say That"

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 777 by Percy, posted 05-02-2022 7:40 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024