The War in Europe

Tangle Message 653Sounds like a well informed opinion backed by the perceived tone of statements by NATO and EU leaders over the last few months.

Pentagon says 2 Neptune anti-ship missiles caused the sinking of the Moskva.Understand the Neptune is a Ukrainian homegrown weapon based off the cold war Soviet KH-35 missile. It was not a NATO provided asset.These guys continue to show what "determined" is really all about.What Happened on Day 51 of the War in Ukraine - The New York TimesGermany announces military aid for Ukraine – as it happened | Ukraine | The GuardianEdited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

I can imagine a lot of talk in NATO pro/con on a no-fly zone. A big big con would probably be just what you are talking about. If there is a no-fly zone then there are going to be Wild Weasels to enforce it. That means Russian SAM sites on Russian soil. Is Putin weakened militarily enough that he would have to accept NATO air superiority? Would he push the button or come to the table?You makes your bets and you takes your chances. Wild Weasel Anti-Air Suppression

Bit of history. The History Guy: The No-Fly Zone War (1991-2003)

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The estimated, unofficial cost of this war to U.S. and British taxpayers is around $1 billion per year. As of August 1999, over 200 military planes, 19 naval ships and 22,000 American military personnel are committed to enforcing the "no-fly zones" and to fighting Iraq.

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And some perspective. https://www.nbcnews.com/...ected-calls-one-ukraine-rcna18918

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"We'd be flying dozens of aircraft, maybe hundreds of aircraft, over Ukraine and shooting at the Russians, and they’d be shooting at us," Cancian said.

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"There’s tremendous reluctancy on the part of the Pentagon and the political establishment," Mark Cancian, senior adviser to the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview. "The president and NATO have been very emphatic, and the reason is that it’s a combat mission."

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“It would mean war!”

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The appeasement question that Percy keeps bringing up is a reality. Bullies need to be confronted now or history says they get worse and bloodier and a hell of a lot more expensive. But past history never dealt with nukes.Being a battlefield general and moving pieces around is one thing. Being Shiva, Destroyer of Worlds, is something else.Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

You all EU/UK folks, this stuff in Sweden.My limited understanding is that some alt-right groups started a campaign to burn a koran in an ethnic neighborhood.That is a rather intentionally hostile act with what seems to me to be a major over reaction. All this just when Sweden is wanting to join NATO.I’m sorry but I don’t believe the coincidence. I know there is a history of great tensions but having Sweden now tied up and burning, this looks too convenient for Russian political aspirations of the present.Maybe this Sweden thing is a Russian terror operation. Easy match to strike.Is this causing issues for NATO/Ukraine or is this more limited than I see?

It has been 5 days since russia launched it's restructured campaign into Ukraine. The axis of the russian advance means their forward troops are now outside their ready supply range (Russian tactics gives units 5 days of supply) and will need resupply. It will be interesting to hear whether the russians develop supply problems like they did last month.

It would take balls of molten lava but there may be a Step Into Madness scenario. Tell Putin we will strike him one for one on the nuclear scale. Let him know if he pops a nuke ANWHERE that we will pop one IN Russia of equal yield / similar target. Let him know that if he wishes to escalate in yield or target type then we will follow suit. It’s madness, of course, but the first flash, and its retaliation, may clarify his untenable position for him.

Details like Britain being NATO were glossed over. What good did this bluster do for Russia? Is Boris apt to acquiesce? Is anyone in NATO? This is the Baghdad Bob level of international stupidity.

What Happened on Day 63 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times Serious? Blackmail?The sense of awareness on both sides is disturbing.Russia thinks arming their adversaries is not fair. It's cheating.EU thinks Russia cutting off gas supplies is not fair. It's blackmail.Are these people in the same world as us? Do these folks not realize that these are the kinds of things that happen when THERE'S A FUCKING WAR ON!Excuse me, of course I meant to refer to the special military operation.Cheating? Blackmail? In a war? Really?

That's why the table is so long.

Oh most strongly probably true. He has distance, reaction time and a gun. If the rumors are true, he has turned over his office, personal and household staff, everyone from guards to gardeners, three time in the last 4 months. No one in the room with him can be armed and must keep their distance. Even foreign dignitaries. He is the most paranoid of creatures. With good reason.Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

He is KGB and poison appears to be his weapon of choice against rivals. These two combined means Putin knows very well just how easily he can be gotten to.

I know the juxtaposition of those ideas presents a message but I’ll be damned if I can figure it out. Personal headspace and timing.Omni, say what?

Amid Hardening Western Resolve, Signs of Russia’s Stalling in Eastern Ukraine - The New York Times

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Western support of Ukraine hardened Friday as the European Union was poised to approve an embargo on Russian oil, amid fresh assessments that the Russian military’s eastern offensive was faltering, hampered by logistical issues and stiff Ukrainian resistance.

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Remember, this bear has already had one paw nearly bit off.With such numerical superiority against a technologically inferior force how can the Russians, with what they have just experienced, be stopped yet again? How can they be held back?Supply. The Russian is outside his forward supply train ... again. Now the gas trucks are trying to play catch up while the Ukes rain hellfire down on them. The Ukrainians know war is supply first then shock. In 500 years the Russian always blunted their shock by neglecting supply. That is the blind adherence to central autocratic dogma and control that has plagued the Russian military forever.And, this is not Russia circa 1944. For their major systems they cannot hide their military problems by throwing massive numbers at it. They cannot make enough tanks and bombs to resupply. The analysts I read are saying the inventory of their major systems is dropping quickly. Shortages of parts, especially electronics, due to sanctions, are hitting along with the hurt put on Russian manufacturing by their internal corruption which is showing up big time.The Ukrainians are most fortunate the Russians are so fucking stupid.Weather. Turn about is fair play. Hitler didn't like the spring rains of the Ukraine, either. Now the invading Russians are getting stuck in the mud. Can't get off the roads. The more flexible Ukrainians are picking them off with that ever popular javelin. Lots of them. The sunflower and the javelin are lasting icons in this war.Ukrainians. Yes, Virginia, Ukraine can win this war. They need weapons and bullets. The Ukrainian defense strategy, hitting supply lines (recently deep in Russia itself), is working. With enough stuff from NATO there should be no doubt that Ukraine has enough skill and enough will to bleed the Russian into surrender.Congratulations to the Ukrainian military command. Whoever they are, they easily outclass their Russian counterparts.Slava Ukraini.Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

The Mongol hordes were a formidable force in great numbers inflicting and taking great losses in their sweep across the steps. Russia could do likewise.The Russian would have to do so with their inventory of weapons severely depleted and restocking slow in coming and still many months away. Their inventory of old cold war systems is vast but in very bad condition. One site I saw said that the older stocks of T-72s in the wastelands of the tundra had to be torched open because some of the hatches had rusted solid to the turret. Imagine what the firing systems look like. This is Russia we're talking about. Maintenance? Nyet!Putin could mobilize his nation and in their usual incompetent and vodka-induced way try to steamroll over Ukraine with rusted popguns and lots of body bags. He can try. He can double down yet again. May even make some progress until he outruns his forward supply line ... again.