EvC Forum: The War in Europe

Phat writes:

Trump is itching to become a Western Leader again.

I doubt that. He likes the attention but he doesn't like people constantly wanting him to do things.

Of course, Phat's statement begs the question of whether Trump has ever deserved being considered a leader, especially since he was doing the bidding of his master, Putin. The general staff of the German Army said of their Kaiser Wilhelm II, arguably an eerily prescient pre-saging of Trump, that he couldn’t lead three soldiers over a gutter, but even there Kaiser Bill's leadership skills far outshone Trump's.

But besides Trump's pathological need for constant attention and ego fluffing, Trump's "running" for the Presidency is motivated by two very important factors:

Trump's desperate need for protection from facing the consequenced for his many criminal activities. Which is to say that his loss of protection under that now-infamous OLC (Office of Legal Counsel) memo has him terrified (A Sitting President 's Amenability to Indictment and Criminal Prosecution, 24 Op. O.L.C. 222, 222, 260 (2000) (OLC Op.).). From Volume II, Page 1, Section "INTRODUCTION TO VOLUME II" of the Mueller Report:
quote:
First ... The Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) has issued an opinion finding that "the indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting President would impermissibly undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions" in violation of "the constitutional separation of powers."
...

³ OLC Op. at 257 n.36 ("A grand jury could continue to gather evidence throughout the period of immunity").

⁴ OLC Op. at 255 ("Recognizing an immunity from prosecution for a sitting President would not preclude such prosecution once the President's term is over or he is otherwise removed from office by resignation or impeachment").

Mueller cited that OLC memo as the reason why he could not seek Trump's indictment for his many acts of obstruction in the investigation, ten of which he detailed in Volume II of the report. He hinted to Congress that they are the ones empowered to take action on that report, presumably by impeaching Trump for obstruction of justice, but instead Congress impeached Trump for extorting President Zelenskyy for personal political gain.
Historical note: That OLC memo was one of two memos in response to two questions from Pres. Nixon. VP Agnew had just resigned immediately before being arrested for corruption (he had been informed of his imminent arrest and resigned in order to not taint the office of VP). Also having been involved in that bribe-taking, Nixon asked the OLC whether a sitting president could be indicted or prosecuted. The OLC counseled no. Nixon also asked whether he could pardon himself. The OLC counseled no, since he'd be acting as his own judge which is impermissible. Please note that one of Trump's first questions in office was whether he could pardon himself, which proved that at least on rare occasions Trump was indeed able to plan ahead.

While in office Trump abused that OLC memo constantly to avoid the consequences of his persistent criminal activity. Now he no longer has that protection and he misses it sorely. He wants to have that protection again, so if he could regain the Presidency he would love for that to happen.
Trump wants to milk his cash cows for as long as he possibly can. Even during the 2016 campaign, even the most casual observer could clearly see that Trump was using his campaign to enrich himself. Campaign contributions went to leasing office space in Trump properties, paying Trump-run caterers and other services, etc. That included "office spaces" in abandoned Trump properties that nobody ever went to. Those campaign contributions also served as conduits for bribes paid to Trump; several of the appointments he made were for large contributors (eg, Gordon Sondland whose $1 million campaign contribution bought him the ambassadorship to the EU, which involved him in the Trump–Ukraine scandal and required him to testify at the impeachment trial, which in turn resulted in Trump firing him two days after Trump's acquittal).

We also observed that Trump registered for re-election at the soonest possible time so that he could keep his campaign cash cow lactating copiously for him. Keep that money flowing in. Keep open that money-laundering conduit for bribes. His hotels also served as conduits for bribes as special interest groups (eg, Saudi Arabia) would reserve large blocks of rooms at Trump's hotels and then not even use them (or else offer them as a huge freebie for veterans to come to Washington and demonstrate against legislation that the Saudis wanted to defeat). And we won't even cover here how Trump funneled millions of government dollars into his properties with his golf trips to his own resorts (for which we had to pay full price for his Secret Service entourage to be there), requiring military flights to overnight at his overseas properties, etc. Or how tens of millions of dollars are still unaccounted for from his Inaugural fund (last I heard). Or how a huge chunk of his $1 billion 2020 campaign fund mysteriously disappeared (though in this case it appears that he had been grifted by grifters that he had hired).

Trump's "Stop the Steal" lie is being monetized through his America First PAC et alia -- ironically, stopping the steal is exactly what we were able to accomplish. But he's appealing to contributors to donate to their legal fund to fight the election results (what he falsely calls "stopping the steal"), plus I'm sure that they're contributing for his anticipated 2024 run (and now to buy him a new jet, etc) along with him supporting other Repugnians' mid-term runs. But the way that's set up only about 30% of money raised goes to the GOP and 70% goes to Trump to use however he sees fit including for personal purposes.

Not only is that a huge cash cow for Trump, but only about 40% of the money received goes to its purposes. Every single charity or PAC bears a cost, overhead that must be paid before the remaining money can be used for the charity's work. You need to have a staff to handle the office work; eg, to print requests for donations, to stuff envelopes and mail them, to process incoming mail, to track donations, etc. I've heard the term "cost of funding", but it's also known by other terms. In normal charities that accounts for about 15% of all money donated, but it can creep up to 20% and still be valid. If the "cost of funding" get much higher, then that can be an indication of money being siphoned off; I heard of a nationwide charity whose "cost of funding" was 90% which just screams that it was a scam (I don't remember the name so I will not suggest what it could be). In the case of Trump's PAC, the "cost of funding" was given as 61%, which tells us that someone is siphoning away nearly half the donations without leaving a trace -- to borrow from the famous Kurt Weill song, "Could that someone be Don the Trump?".

So Trump's motivation to be President again is not to serve, since that would make him a sucker. Rather, he has three basic motivations:

His need to have his ego constantly fluffed. Balance that with his aversion to being exposed as a loser.
His need to escape prosecution for his lifetime filled with so very many crimes.
His greed for all the money that he can grift out of suckers.

So will Trump actually run for President again? Only if he is absolutely assured of winning, since his fragile ego could not survive losing yet again.

Rather, I predict that he will lead his followers along as long as he possibly can, misleading them into believing that he is going to run until the last possible moment. We've seen him do that kind of thing before. And as long as his followers think that he will run, they will continue to send him money, so he will milk them, that cash cow, for all the money he possibly can.

Just the other day I saw an article where some group is suing Trump for not announcing his candidacy but rather leading his followers on.

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