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Author Topic:   COVID vaccine works - we're saved!
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 459 of 1110 (894544)
05-20-2022 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 457 by Tangle
05-20-2022 7:00 AM


Tangle writes:
In Canada now, Niagra.
No masks here.
Hope you're having fun. You're so close to Toronto I hope you have a chance to make it there - it's a wonderful city. Don't miss CN Tower and Casa Loma.
Niagara County is in New York, but it's all I have figures for. Its case rate is 56 per 100,000, at the high end for current rates in the Northeast. Some form of overseas health plan might be a good idea. Costs seem to start around $250 and rise from there.
Though I wonder how successfully American medical providers go after patients for unpaid medical expenses once they're back home.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 457 by Tangle, posted 05-20-2022 7:00 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 461 by Tangle, posted 05-20-2022 5:50 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 462 of 1110 (894551)
05-21-2022 10:02 AM


Case Rates and Hospitalizations
Here's a comparison of my first case rate map from May 7 with the current one from today May 21. Comparison with the older map makes the changes stand out better. When I print maps from dates too close together the differences are too subtle:
We are in a clear and obvious upsurge throughout most of the country. A large swath from the Midwest to the Northeast and extending as far down as North Carolina has gotten noticeably worse. Florida and California are both worse. Here's the nationwide case rate graph:
Only two days have passed since I presented a map for the US of hospitalizations, so I won't do a side-by-side with it until a week has passed. Today's map looks pretty much like Thursday's
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


(1)
Message 465 of 1110 (894581)
05-22-2022 8:00 AM
Reply to: Message 463 by Tangle
05-21-2022 4:39 PM


Niagara *and* Gettysburg? You are really getting around!
Ah, Gettysburg. I'm a little bit of a Civil War buff. Did you take a tour of the battlefield? Yes, it was a close thing. If not for Picket's failed charge and some less well known small mistakes with huge impacts on the end of the lines, Gettysburg could have gone the other way.
Union troops were still deploying before the battle when they lost probably their best commander in General John Reynolds, shot off his horse. Had Grant been in change of a losing Union army at Gettysburg he would have done what he always did, packed up and moved on to the next battle while interfering with Lee's supply and communication lines so far from home base, but Grant was still at Vicksburg. Meade would have equivocated and procrastinated, allowing Lee to march further into Pennsylvania wreaking mayhem.
Would it have changed the war's eventual outcome? Unlikely. Grant took Vicksburg around the same time as the Battle of Gettysburg. A defeat at Gettysburg would have accelerated Grant's replacing Meade. It might even have ended the war earlier if Lee had allowed himself to become trapped in Pennsylvania.
Urban centers today in Pennsylvania are definitely northern in character, but rural Pennsylvania is definitely southern. It's strongly redneck in character and derisively called Pennsyltucky.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 463 by Tangle, posted 05-21-2022 4:39 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 476 of 1110 (894606)
05-24-2022 6:20 AM
Reply to: Message 472 by Tangle
05-23-2022 11:29 AM


Tangle writes:
Brits have an unfair reputation for food - it originated after the second world war when we were still rationing food and and stuck.
After many meals in London (particularly Soho), Salisbury and the British Pavilion at Epcot Center in Orlando, there did seem to be something to the British cuisine reputation. My favorite was Shepard's Pie. Also excellent were Haggis and Irish bangers, but the first is Scottish and the second is, of course, Irish. There did seem to be a solid basis for their reputation for boiling vegetables down to a purée.
Tangle writes:
We found some great food in the US (mostly Italian) but we had to try very hard to find it. It's burgers and junk all the way down. And don't get me started on Denny's...
Sorry it was difficult finding good food in the US. I would have thought that in New York, Washington DC, Gettysburg and Niagara you would have easily found any cuisine you wanted, from mainstream American fair to Chinese (American version) to Thai to Indian to Italian (which you found) to Mediterranean style to Mexican to Greek to Vietnamese to sub shops to pizza parlors to bar/pub fare. And I see you discovered Denny's, both an American shame and treasure. Breakfast there is pure gold, any other time kind of hit or miss. The over 70 crowd loves it and arrives around 4:30.
How are you feeling?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 472 by Tangle, posted 05-23-2022 11:29 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 477 by Tangle, posted 05-24-2022 7:42 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 487 of 1110 (894675)
05-26-2022 9:06 AM
Reply to: Message 453 by Percy
05-19-2022 9:36 AM


Re: Hospitalizations
I had planned to post the hospitalization map once a week. It has now been a week, but the current map is identical to last week's map. I do not believe that hospitalizations in every county in the country where they're tracking it has remained unchanged, so I don't think the NYT is bothering to update their hospitalization data. I'll check it now and then to see if there's a change, and when there is I'll post the map next to the previous map.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 453 by Percy, posted 05-19-2022 9:36 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 507 by Percy, posted 06-06-2022 9:57 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 488 of 1110 (894677)
05-26-2022 9:31 AM


Covid Cases Nationally
Here is the 5/7/2022 case rate map next to today's, 5/26/2022, about three weeks later:
Almost the entire country is worse. Mask rates in the grocery store continue around the 10% level. Two people I know have come down with covid over the past week.
I'm signed up to get my second booster soon. Right now it kind of feels like we'll need boosters about every six months. They're only approving boosters for older people, but everyone needs them, because even if it were true (it's not) that younger people don't need to worry about the effects of covid, they're still a vector for older people who do.
And don't believe them when they say young people needn't worry about covid. They don't have the data to back up that statement. They're just saying that because it's what is currently politically acceptable. The reality is that while this illness might leave behind no ill effects, it also has the potential to really mess you up. The latest data (consider it very preliminary) is that vaccines reduce the changes of getting long covid by about 15%. Here's a recent article from the Post:
How many people who catch covid get long covid? Under 65, about 20%. Over 65, about 25%.
Anyone in the US not wearing a mask indoors is taking a significant risk with their health.
I know I'm hammering home a message most people are done with, but we can't ignore reality.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 493 of 1110 (894739)
05-27-2022 4:43 PM
Reply to: Message 492 by dwise1
05-27-2022 4:15 PM


Re: Falsifying death certificates?
Just continuing on this topic, my relative the conspiracy theorist says it this way, that no matter what anyone dies of, if they have covid then covid is listed as the cause of death.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 492 by dwise1, posted 05-27-2022 4:15 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 499 of 1110 (894749)
05-28-2022 8:25 AM
Reply to: Message 497 by Tangle
05-28-2022 3:46 AM


Tangle writes:
I've now got bad back ache. I never get back ache.
According to Kidney Pain: Causes, Symptoms, and Treatments, "Pain in your sides or middle to upper back could be coming from your kidneys." If that describes you, you might consider getting some medical attention.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 497 by Tangle, posted 05-28-2022 3:46 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 500 by Tangle, posted 05-28-2022 9:06 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 502 of 1110 (894914)
06-02-2022 9:25 AM


Some Good News
Here's some good covid news, at least as far as this wave is concerned. The Northeast has finally started to calm down (my own county has declined from a case rate high of 46 a couple weeks ago to 28 now). The rest of the country is a patchwork with some areas getting worse, some better, and most remaining the same, many at a relatively low level, meaning below 10. To me it looks like the case rate nationally has leveled off and should begin to decline soon.
But covid isn't done with us. There will be another surge - end of August, beginning of September would be my guess. How bad a surge? Who knows? Will the drug companies update their vaccines for omicron? Will people take the vaccines? How bad future surges will be will depend upon the answers to questions like those.
I know I say this a lot, but you do not want to catch this disease. Medical analysis reveals that even asymptomatic cases can have ill effects. This is not like the flu. Almost all people fully recover from the flu, but evidence is beginning to suggest that everyone who catches covid comes away less than they were, possibly permanently, too early to know.
For something with this level of uncertainty caution would seem to be the watchword. If it turns out you were needlessly cautious, what have you lost? A few dinners out, a few sports events, a few trips or vacations, a few family occasions. They can be made up. You can make up for lost time. If the numbers continue coming down my wife and I will take a long vacation, probably a month or so with possibly a somewhat rural focus (think national parks) where the numbers are lower (though I'll have to sort through how legitimate are my suspicions that those numbers are artificially low because of a lack of reporting).
But what if it turns out covid leaves nearly everyone diminished? Then everyone should have been cautious.
Sidenote: Why did it take China two months of lockdown to end the covid outbreak in Shanghai? Since the disease passes in a week or two and people are only contagious for a few days, it seems that it should only have taken two weeks for a totalitarian government like China's to have shut down all non-hazmat contact and wipe out the disease there.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 507 of 1110 (895027)
06-06-2022 9:57 AM
Reply to: Message 487 by Percy
05-26-2022 9:06 AM


Re: Hospitalizations
There have been very slight changes in the hospitalization map, so I'm posting the map from May 19 with the map from today.
Generally things look pretty good, with a low rate of less than 20 hospitalizations per 100,000 people in much of the country where figures are available. The east has improved slightly, the west has worsened slightly. Nationally, hospitalizations have risen by 16% in the last 14 days. As a trailing indicator this is to be expected since it was only about two weeks ago that the case rate showed signs of decline.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 487 by Percy, posted 05-26-2022 9:06 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 508 of 1110 (895030)
06-06-2022 10:56 AM


"You do not want to catch this disease" Department
Another tale of why you do not want to catch this disease: And Just Like That, I Could Smell Exactly Nothing. This is from the NYT. Non-subscribers get 10 free articles per month.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 509 of 1110 (895031)
06-06-2022 11:01 AM


Dinner Out
We had dinner out last night. We didn't wear masks, because we literally had dinner out, as in outside. We had to walk through the restaurant and up the stairs to get to the rooftop patio. We didn't wear masks, but I held my breath while inside.
Case rates in my county are down to 24 cases per 100,000 on a 7-day moving average, half what it was when at it's highest several weeks ago. How low before we'd risk eating indoors? Maybe 5?
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 510 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 12:11 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


(1)
Message 511 of 1110 (895048)
06-06-2022 4:58 PM
Reply to: Message 510 by AZPaul3
06-06-2022 12:11 PM


Re: Dinner Out
AZPaul3 writes:
You hold your breath walking thru the place? Percy, that sounds a bit paranoid. You have had all pokes + boosters, yes? But no mask?

If you are that paranoid, and have reason, why are you not masked? Self-generated social pressure or do they actually throw things at you?
We have decided as a couple that when the current surge has run its course, which looks about two to three weeks out, that we'll resume a normal life and no longer wear masks indoors. We haven't worn masks outdoors since the summer of 2020. We're going to be in NYC the week of the 19th, so we'll probably give up masks then. NYC's case rate is around 40 right now and was declining until a few days ago. The New York metropolitan area is one of the hotspots in the Northeast.
To me paranoid is when your fears exceed the dangers, but we don't actually know the degree of danger. Sure, the local case rate is only 24 per 100,000 on a 7-day moving average, but we know the actual case rate is much higher because most people use home tests now and never report the results. A reasonable guess for our actual case rate would maybe be 100.
And how dangerous is omicron? The case rate is also much higher nationally, but the hospitalization rate has remained low, so omicron is obviously less dangerous when it comes to critical illness, but how much less dangerous is it in other ways, and in what ways is it less dangerous. The data isn't in yet, but clearly it does a lot less lung damage, because that's what most often sent people to the hospital. But does it cause less anosmia and ageusia (loss of taste and smell)? Does it cause less reduction in brain mass and of cognitive function? Does it do less organ damage that doesn't become apparent until months or years later? Does it cause fewer blood clots that cause random wear and tear damage at random places around the body?
So our decision to resume normal life soon is based upon insufficient information.
I think what you're doing might be called paranoid if speaking casually, but what you're actually doing is applying a high degree of caution in an environment where some important information is either unknown (e.g., the actual case rate) or not yet available (e.g., how dangerous omicron is).
No one looks askance at mask wearers here, either. I mostly see them in the grocery store, around 10%-15% of shoppers, and I wonder why they're wearing masks. There's no effort by local officials to warn the public, getting an accurate grasp of the risks from reading on-line articles isn't within the ability of most people, all mask mandates are gone, so why are they wearing masks?
For older mask wearers I speculate that maybe 10% have made an intelligent and informed decision based on the current case rate and what we know of the risks, maybe 5% have covid and feel a responsibility not to infect others, maybe 10% find it hard to break the habit, maybe another 10% has had a recent illness and just want to avoid getting sick again, and the rest are in some way immunocompromised.
For younger mask wearers, I figure they're in the health care industry or are knowledgable enough to not want to contribute to the spread.
And in all age groups, one reason they take the virus very seriously could be because they've lost someone they love very much.
I thought holding my breath while walking to through the restaurant was pretty funny, too, but I didn't feel like bringing a mask along because they're a nuisance because there's nowhere to put them while you're eating. I wear the semi-rigid N95's, so the pocket is out, and my wife doesn't carry a pocketbook when she doesn't need to.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 510 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 12:11 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


(2)
Message 512 of 1110 (895114)
06-08-2022 11:08 AM


Covid Case Rates Rising in US Again
Our own Northeast region has been consistently improving over the past month while the rest of country has been in pretty good shape, but over just the past week or two the rest of the country has getten noticeably worse. Here are two case rate maps, one from May 7, the other from today, June 8, a month later. The difference is dramatic:
Except for the Northeast, practically everywhere in the country has gotten worse.
Take off the masks too early and this is what happens.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22954
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 516 of 1110 (895763)
07-18-2022 4:47 PM


Covid Case Rates Continue to Rise
This succession of maps gives a clear indication of rising case rates across the country, except in the Northeast. These are from May 7, June 8 and today July 19:
Hospitalizations are also increasing except in the Northeast, though still at a relatively low level. These are the maps from May 19 and today:
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 518 by Percy, posted 07-19-2022 9:04 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
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