When Will The End-Times Be And How Will We Know?

So, 85% of at least some. That's 29% better than every biblical prophesy!

I've not been thru the math completely but as far as significant digits I'm wondering if you didn't round the wrong way.

He's doing something the wrong way.

I think what is going on with the_wickless_one is that he has no clue what that prof was trying to demonstrate: So the prof's point would not have been how probable it would be for a prediction to be fulfilled, but rather how the probability of multiple predictions all coming true shrinks rapidly as the number of those predictions increase.A realistic math model for arriving at the probability of a single prediction would be extremely difficult to construct. Therefore, I have no doubt that the prof just pulled a number out of his ... hat. That is a perfectly valid thing to do when you are just trying to demonstrate the effects of multiple events.However, a probability of about 1/133 seems to be far too high for such an event. It would make sense for him to have a favorite magic number (like 42 for those of my generation -- Share and enjoy!). Perhaps that find structure constant is his favorite magic number.Of course, that completely begs the other question of whether those "prophecies" even qualify as legitimate prophecies. Or even qualify as having been legitimately fulfilled and not just faked -- eg, my successful prediction of last Saturday's lottery numbers would only count if I had written them down before last Saturday's draw and not the day after.Aron Ra discusses this in his YouTube video, Unfulfilling Prophecy , which I so generously embedded in my Message 731 for wickless' benefit.

It's been almost six decades since I studied statistics, but I remember everything I learned because I have perfect recall. In fact, I can't think of a single thing that I've forgotten.But, the key thing that you are leaving out of your analysis is conditional probability for which you have to apply Bayesian statistics. So, in the case you consider of trying to roll a 4 with a six sided die, the probability of getting a 4 is indeed 1/6 ~ 0.16667 if you are an atheist. However, if you are a devout Christian, like candle2, and you add the condition of sincere prayer you can raise the probability to as high as 0.7346. The power of prayer has a multiplicative factor of 1 to 46378 (depending on which god you pray to). If you are an Ancient Greek and pray to the demigoddess Diana, you can only raise the odds to 0.1669 since Diana, being a demigoddess, has limited powers. However, if you are an Ancient Greek, then your are dead and those odds of rolling preferred numbers on dice is the least of your worries. These are all true facts. You can look them up. The real question here is why are you letting some ignorant schmuck take up any of your time! (I'm referring to candle2, not myself.)

Edited by AnswersInGenitals, .

So in other words, theists insist that they are playing with loaded dice, so normal math no longer applies.This is also one of the reasons why mixing gods with science doesn't work. What science discovers must hold true regardless of one's gods. If you mix certain chemicals together under a certain set of conditions, then the resultant reaction(s) must not depend on which god you offered which particular prayer (up to and most definitely including the "correct" sect's prescribed number of fingers to be used in that invocation's prescribed hand gesture -- see Раскол). IOW, when you bake a cake, it should not depend on your gods. But once you insist on including gods and religious intervention into science, you screw everything up. Science sees that there are things in the physical universe that we can depend on; religion insists that the universe is chaotic, inconsistent, and capricious. Because he is typical and even archetypical of "true Christians". Dishonest hypocrites who know no lie too audacious nor dirty trick too low and underhanded to ever pass up.He has done nothing here except to spout one lie after another and to do everything possible to avoid any and all attempts at discussion. There are still so many questions that he has yet to answer, including why he claims that trace C-14 recently formed in subterranean formations through local radiation sources is supposed to have anything to do with radiocarbon dating methods which only uses atmospheric C-14.He needs to stop running away and start to engage in discussion. Of course, his evil theology will not allow that. 
ABE:IOW, we need to urge candle2, eWolf, Mike-the-Whizzer, etc, to become honest.Since all the evidence we have observed demonstrates conclusively that there is no such thing as an honest creationist, then we have almost no hope of succees. But we must still make the effort nonetheless.It's been said that one should not try to teach a pig to sing: you will never succeed and, beside, it annoys the pig.It has also been said that sometimes annoying the pig is the objective of that evolution.

Edited by dwise1, : ABE

Then how do you explain the well documented transmogrification of wheat/wine to flesh/blood during the Eucharist?

AnswersInGenitalsLove the name.The reply does not seem to go with it.Care to share some of that documentation?Regards
DL

Ask any priest. They will quote you chapter and verse as well as provide copious documents come down through church history on the majik the liturgy invokes.

A good quote I heard which I cannot verify because Hulu won't let me view past episodes of The Orville:

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"Religion is so confusing and hard to understand."

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"That's how priests stay in business."

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Do you have an idea of the episode. I have them all

Season 3, Episode 2, "Shadow Realms", dropped on Hulu on June 9, 2022:

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As the crew of the Orville undergoes diplomatic negotiations with the Krill to access a previously unknown region of space, Claire reunites with her ex-husband Vice Admiral Paul Christie, who happens to be her former mentor and the chief diplomat assigned to their mission. Meanwhile, despite warnings from the Krill, the crew undertake an exploration mission in the uncharted Kalarr Expanse that is supposedly inhabited by demons. During their exploration, the Orville encounters a giant, seemingly abandoned space station. Paul is infected by spores, which causes him to mutate into an alien creature that infects several of the other crew by altering their DNA. Claire and the crew manage to force the former Paul and the other mutated crew to leave by threatening to release a synthetic virus. Following the showdown, Claire and Isaac begin repairing their relationship.

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For some reason, Hulu will only let me rewatch the third episode.The scene is where they are discussing the Krill's warnings of demons, CAPT Mercer says that he'd tried to study the Krill religion but found it confusing, to which VADM Christie marked that up to job security for priests.

Temp

In the matter of what we must require of claims of fulfilled prophecy, I listed in Message 726 (to which this is a reply since candle2 is conspicuously MIA) some of those requirements as I recalled from Aron Ra's video, Unfulfilling Prophecy .One that I had left out is the requirement that the "prophecy" not being about something that had already happened before the writing down of the "prophecy". Though it looks like I did touch on that point with: Just now watching Viced Rhino's new video ( Atheists Admit Secrets That Atheists Never Admit!!! -- video refused to embed). Circa 36:00 he mentions that there are books of prophecy in the Bible that we can date by when the prophecies go from being accurate to being wrong. That would mean that the book was written around the time that it went from being accurate to being wrong. No, he didn't give examples here because that was an aside from critiquing a fundamentalist video misrepresenting atheists.ABE:
Makes me feel like Jesus in the story of the parables where he tells the crowd the stories (as parables in order to keep anyone from understanding what he's saying), but then he has to pull his disciples off to the side afterwards to explain everything to them.The reason why those books of prophecy Viced Rhino is talking about start off with accurate prophecies and then the prophecies all go wrong is simple: the earlier prophecies are all retrodictions, things that had already happened. Once it got to things that had not yet happened, none of the prediction got it right.

Edited by dwise1, : ABE

Edited by dwise1, .

Edited by dwise1, .

Belated thanks (sorry about that).The Hulu GUI for Roku finally started working right. GUIs can be so messy to try to use at times, but I guess that's why they're called that.