Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 58 (9175 total)
2 online now:
Newest Member: sirs
Post Volume: Total: 917,653 Year: 4,910/9,624 Month: 258/427 Week: 4/64 Day: 2/2 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Israel Declares War For The First Time Since 1973.
Percy
Member
Posts: 22622
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.6


(3)
Message 256 of 378 (914214)
01-04-2024 8:14 AM
Reply to: Message 255 by Rahvin
01-03-2024 12:19 PM


Re: This Is Who We Are
There needs to be a guidebook for government called, "What To Do When An Ally Goes Bad".
And it should be translated into the languages of all our allies so they know what to do with us.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 255 by Rahvin, posted 01-03-2024 12:19 PM Rahvin has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 257 by Rahvin, posted 01-04-2024 12:35 PM Percy has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 3.8


(3)
Message 257 of 378 (914220)
01-04-2024 12:35 PM
Reply to: Message 256 by Percy
01-04-2024 8:14 AM


Re: This Is Who We Are
quote:
There needs to be a guidebook for government called, "What To Do When An Ally Goes Bad".
That would be a start. Interestingly we have literal textbooks on exactly what causes terrorism, how it works, and how to combat it. The US response to 9/11 was exactly the wrong thing to do, and Israel is speedrunning the US 9/11 playbook with extra steps.
We know how to deal with this. We choose to do the emotional response that terrorists literally want us to do.
Hamas has almost certainly gained far more active personnel than they've lost in this massacre, and they've successfully baited Israel into drastically reducing international support. Enemies become neutral, neutrals become supporters, supporters turn active. Support for Hamas has dramatically increased in the West Bank and internationally.
You could summarize the most effective way to deal with terrorism in a single sentence: "Stop giving them recruitment events."
Asymmetric warfare acknowledges that you cannot possibly win a military victory - you might not have an army, for example. Your goals are outside of the combat zone - a definitional aspect of terrorism. You want to degrade the enemy's ability to fight, by draining their resources and, critically, reducing support at home and internationally.
The entire point of attacks like Oct 7 are to provoke an unbalanced heavy-handed response.
We might have fewer incidents of allies going bad if we actually listened to the military experts when they tell us how this will go. The US knew before Iraq, before Afghanistan. Israel knew before Oct 7. From what I understand, we specifically sent military advisors to Israel specifically to warn them not to make the same mistakes we made in Iraq and Afghanistan, but we were politely told to fuck right off.
Advisers might carry a little more weight if failing to listen to our advice and moving forward with a plan we don't agree with carries the consequence of losing any and all military aid, as well as the loss of Security Council cover in the UN.
Now because we continue to support them so strongly, Israel might drag us into a regional conflict if they continue operations outside of Israel and Palestine - it's not confirmed that the Iran attack was Israel, but if it was and if attacks like that continue, we could be looking at a very major conflict.
quote:
And it should be translated into the languages of all our allies so they know what to do with us.
This one is a lot harder. The US is able to do what it does because we have cartoonishly immense military power. US military doctrine stipulates maintaining the capability to fight two superpowers at the same time. Traditionally that's been considered China and Russia, at the same time. Turns out Russia was a lot weaker than we thought. One of the things that scares me the most is the thought of Trump or someone like him gaining power again, and deciding to follow the rest of the fascist playbook and start invading and annexing territory while implementing the natural conclusion of all the hateful rhetoric. I'm not sure who could stop us. Nuclear powers might be safe.
How would our allies have stopped us from invading Afghanistan? Economic sanctions? I don't think words alone would have worked, we had lots of resistance protesters here at home telling us how bad an idea it was. Economic sanctions are a lot harder against a country that actually represents a big part of your trade base. I'm sure I have US-centric bias here - when the US sanctions an adversary like Russia or Iran, I feel no consequences at all, they just arent a significant trade partner. When Germany participates in sanctions against Russia, they feel it more because of the energy market in the region. Im not sure what the cost looks like for sanctions against the US, especially among traditional allies.

“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” - Francis Bacon

"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

“A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity.” – Albert Camus

"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." - Barash, David 1995...

"Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, J. R. R. Tolkien: The Lord Of the Rings

"The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death."
1 Corinthians 15:26King James Version (KJV)

Nihil supernum


This message is a reply to:
 Message 256 by Percy, posted 01-04-2024 8:14 AM Percy has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18389
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 258 of 378 (914414)
01-15-2024 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 252 by Percy
12-14-2023 2:18 PM


World War III is Nearly Inevitable
I watched an informative documentary on the political entities surrounding Israel and the likely response at some point in the near future. It is quite good...it is not a hack, Percy.
JUDGE FOR YOURSELF: How the US & Iran Are Preparing to Fight Over Israel
The BBC reported that just 24 hours ago, Yemen was struck hard by British and American jets. Is there any way to avoid WW III without selling Israel out?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 252 by Percy, posted 12-14-2023 2:18 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 259 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2024 1:53 PM Phat has replied
 Message 260 by Percy, posted 01-15-2024 2:13 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 264 by Theodoric, posted 01-16-2024 4:17 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 265 by Percy, posted 01-16-2024 5:17 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 267 by Percy, posted 01-17-2024 8:10 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17838
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.9


Message 259 of 378 (914417)
01-15-2024 1:53 PM
Reply to: Message 258 by Phat
01-15-2024 1:34 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
I’d be more worried about Taiwan. The Chinese are NOT happy about the outcome of the election there.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 1:34 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 261 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 3:23 PM PaulK has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22622
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 260 of 378 (914419)
01-15-2024 2:13 PM
Reply to: Message 258 by Phat
01-15-2024 1:34 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
PRESENT THE INFORMATION AND USE THE LINK AS A REFERENCE.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 1:34 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18389
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 261 of 378 (914423)
01-15-2024 3:23 PM
Reply to: Message 259 by PaulK
01-15-2024 1:53 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
PaulK writes:
I’d be more worried about Taiwan. The Chinese are NOT happy about the outcome of the election there.
I heard about that! Taiwan may well become an issue, but Ukraine and Gaza won't go away anytime soon. Isnt the whole definition of a World War is war between many nations happening at the same time?
Before the war in gaza began, Israel was attempting to court Saudi Arabia. Both nations have much in common (apart from religion) in that they are both wealthy, both have natural resources worth protecting, both have a common fear of Iran, and both are US allies. It seems the Gaza attack was intended to disrupt all of this.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 259 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2024 1:53 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 262 by PaulK, posted 01-15-2024 3:37 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 263 by Rahvin, posted 01-16-2024 12:01 PM Phat has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17838
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.9


Message 262 of 378 (914424)
01-15-2024 3:37 PM
Reply to: Message 261 by Phat
01-15-2024 3:23 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
Ukraine and Gaza are separate wars. A World War would be a single war. I don’t think that Russia would want to get involved in the Middle East right now. They have their hands full in Ukraine.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 261 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 3:23 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 3.8


(3)
Message 263 of 378 (914432)
01-16-2024 12:01 PM
Reply to: Message 261 by Phat
01-15-2024 3:23 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
Right now both Gaza and Ukraine are local conflicts.
Ukraine is extremely unlikely to scale out. Russia literally does not have the resources, and most of the countries they could try to rope into a regional conflict are NATO allies. Russia loses to NATO, very very badly, and they know that. Russia would have lost to NATO at the level that NATO evaluated Russia before the Ukrainian invasion. Now their forces are seriously depleted in both material and manpower - they are no longer a "near-peer" with the US. Putin's evil but he's not that crazy. The whole point of the Ukraine invasion was to seize the entire country and prevent it from joining NATO, and use that to also shake confidence in NATO and prevent other countries from joining. They've already spectacularly failed that goal, as more countries are joining NATO, and Ukraine wants to join as well - they just can't until the current conflict is resolved, and the conflict has stagnated to a degree. Neither side can push with a significant advantage in the short term. Russia can keep this up a while longer, probably a couple more years at least, possibly longer but not actually indefinitely. Ukraine can keep up the fight as long as they keep getting support. But the conflict has stagnated enough that more mundane politics-related things are happening. Both sides are likely reconsidering victory conditions and what they would accept in order to end the fighting.
Gaza is more risky. The US ally in this case is the aggressor, not the defender, and Israel has a heavy-handed history. On top of that, there are more actors at play - the Houthi rebels in Yemen, for example. There are a lot of nations and non-state actors, Israel has shelled and bombed locations in Lebanon, Hezbollah in Lebanon has been in the news (im not sure they've actually done anything yet, they may have, I just dont know) there have been assassinations at least one of which is highly likely to have been done by Israel... If Israel goes "too far" (referring to actions outside of Gaza here; Gaza is already way past "too far"), or if one or more of those other groups or countries decides to retaliate, or if the US decides to intervene more directly, there is a threat of escalation to a regional conflict. And because Israel is a US ally, a mistake from Israel can pull the US into a war it doesnt want to be part of.
A regional conflict is still not WW3. It is very very bad, so it's something we very much want to avoid. Especially since Israel is nuclear-armed, and Iran had a nuclear program.
The best thing for literally everyone, including Israel, would be for Israel to not just "de-escalate" but to immediately stop all military actions in Gaza, drop the blockade, and for the international community to dumb boatloads of aid as fast as possible to reduce the suffering and loss of life there. That would still only be the beginning, but continuing the slaughter will continue to motivate other actors to try to intercede (like the Houthis with shipping), and this all just risks escalation. Not to mention, obviously it's always best to stop committing genocide.

“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” - Francis Bacon

"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

“A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity.” – Albert Camus

"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." - Barash, David 1995...

"Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, J. R. R. Tolkien: The Lord Of the Rings

"The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death."
1 Corinthians 15:26King James Version (KJV)

Nihil supernum


This message is a reply to:
 Message 261 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 3:23 PM Phat has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 266 by DrJones*, posted 01-16-2024 10:12 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9283
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.0


(1)
Message 264 of 378 (914440)
01-16-2024 4:17 PM
Reply to: Message 258 by Phat
01-15-2024 1:34 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
if you can only find it on youtube it is probably bullshit

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 1:34 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22622
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.6


(2)
Message 265 of 378 (914443)
01-16-2024 5:17 PM
Reply to: Message 258 by Phat
01-15-2024 1:34 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
Your YouTube habit calls to mind my recent programming experience. I started programming in new (to me) programming contexts last year and had to learn a great deal. While I did purchase a couple of books, I also used the web a great deal. The books were mostly right on the money about things, but the web was atrocious. It was very disappointing to discover that much of the information out there is incomplete or impenetrable or lacks context or is just plain wrong. A lot of people's eagerness to be helpful greatly exceeds their expertise.
The same thing is true of YouTube. Many people's eagerness to make video's greatly exceeds their knowledge. They're entertainers, not highly skilled investigative journalists. They have no special access to information. Their online survival depends upon making things sound as spectacular and mysterious and outrageous as possible - that's how they make it, not by being accurate or detailed or offering clarity. If you're going to continue watching YouTube (or Fox News) just remember that it's entertainment, not news. Watch it if you must, but please stop bringing their nonsense here. It's no more real than the last episode of CSI Miami.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 1:34 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
DrJones*
Member
Posts: 2293
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004
Member Rating: 4.6


Message 266 of 378 (914449)
01-16-2024 10:12 PM
Reply to: Message 263 by Rahvin
01-16-2024 12:01 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
Israel has shelled and bombed locations in Libya, , Hezbollah in Libya has been in the news
I think you mean Lebanon.

It's not enough to bash in heads, you've got to bash in minds
soon I discovered that this rock thing was true
Jerry Lee Lewis was the devil
Jesus was an architect previous to his career as a prophet
All of a sudden i found myself in love with the world
And so there was only one thing I could do
Was ding a ding dang my dang along ling long - Jesus Built my Hotrod Ministry
Live every week like it's Shark Week! - Tracey Jordan
Just a monkey in a long line of kings. - Matthew Good
If "elitist" just means "not the dumbest motherfucker in the room", I'll be an elitist! - Get Your War On
*not an actual doctor

This message is a reply to:
 Message 263 by Rahvin, posted 01-16-2024 12:01 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22622
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.6


(1)
Message 267 of 378 (914454)
01-17-2024 8:10 AM
Reply to: Message 258 by Phat
01-15-2024 1:34 PM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
Coincidentally, this appeared in today's Post: Doing your own research is a good way to end up being wrong. A few relevant excerpts:
quote:
The internet has been a huge boon for the accessibility of information. There are very few barriers to consuming classic literature or detailed scientific analyses or catalogues of news reports. There is also an exorbitant amount of garbage information, of course, and an entire universe of people who say stuff that they think will get people to click links that will earn themselves money.
...
There is an outsize appetite for derogatory, counterintuitive or anti-institutional assessments of the world around us. This is in part because alleged scandals are interesting and in part because Americans like to view themselves as independent analysts of the world around us.
This part is about a research effort on people who do their own research on the Internet:
quote:
Later, they summarize the process, “When individuals search online about misinformation, they are more likely to be exposed to lower-quality information than when individuals search about true news” and “those who are exposed to low-quality information are more likely to believe false/misleading news stories to be true relative to those who are not.” Look for info; see bad info; accept the bad info.
See that last part? That part where it says, "Look for info; see bad info; accept the bad info." That's you, because you get your information from low-quality sources, YouTube and the like. Your worry about the powerful forces they claim are arrayed against us is as pointless as worrying about the poor unemployed single mom from last week's Blue Bloods episode.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by Phat, posted 01-15-2024 1:34 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 268 by PaulK, posted 01-17-2024 8:35 AM Percy has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17838
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.9


(6)
Message 268 of 378 (914455)
01-17-2024 8:35 AM
Reply to: Message 267 by Percy
01-17-2024 8:10 AM


Re: World War III is Nearly Inevitable
Doing your own research is fine if you are prepared to - and able to - critically evaluate your sources. People who can’t or won’t (remembering a former member) should be prepared to make serious mistakes.
(Wikipedia is usually fine, good enough for casual use, but certainly not 100% reliable. YouTube is a carrier not a source. There are reliable sources on YouTube - but there are a lot that aren’t and video is far worse than text for conveying facts).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 267 by Percy, posted 01-17-2024 8:10 AM Percy has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 271 by Phat, posted 02-05-2024 3:23 PM PaulK has replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3947
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 10.0


(2)
Message 269 of 378 (914588)
01-24-2024 11:54 PM


Norman Finkelstein - A Brief History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Currently available at Podcast — Alternative Radio (need to scroll down page)
This audio source will go away and be replaced by something else. I will try to remember to post links to newer relevant talks.
Moose
ABE- AS OF 24-01-25, AUDIO AT THE ABOVE LINK HAS CHANGED

Replies to this message:
 Message 275 by Minnemooseus, posted 02-08-2024 12:44 AM Minnemooseus has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18389
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 270 of 378 (914811)
02-04-2024 1:47 PM
Reply to: Message 254 by Percy
01-02-2024 12:49 PM


Re: This Is Who We Are
Percy writes:
Trump possibly reelected? Biden supporting the slaughter of innocents? Both Biden and Trump subjecting immigrants to inhumane treatment? Trump abandoning our allies and embracing dictators?
Maybe this *is* who we are.
Maybe the United States does not want to give up its empire. Maybe if we did, our dollar wouldnt go any father than a Greek Drachma. Anyway, lets check the news. its been awhile.
BBC:

  • The Houthis vow to respond after US and UK strike 36 targets across 13 locations in Yemen
  • The Houthis in Yemen, who are backed by Iran, started targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea in November, disrupting global supply chains
  • Shipping companies have stopped using the Red Sea, which usually carries almost 15% of global seaborne trade, and are using a much longer route around southern Africa instead
  • The Houthis say they are targeting Israeli-linked ships in solidarity with the Palestinians; however, many attacked vessels have had no connection to Israel
  • UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said the latest strikes were "not an escalation", and the Houthis' attacks on vessels in the Red Sea were "illegal and unacceptable"
  • The joint strikes come after the US targeted 85 locations in Syria and Iraq on Friday in response to a deadly drone attack on a US military base in Jordan
  • Israel is going to do what they have planned to do ...consequences be damned. They have determined that no two state solution will ever work and they are determined to secure the land that they believe belongs to them.
    According to the BBC, the world-at-large is adamantly against this path.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 254 by Percy, posted 01-02-2024 12:49 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

      
    Newer Topic | Older Topic
    Jump to:


    Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

    ™ Version 4.2
    Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024