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Author Topic:   Who Owns the Standard Definition of Evolution
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 165 of 703 (915085)
02-09-2024 7:40 PM
Reply to: Message 161 by Taq
02-09-2024 7:35 PM


quote:
Therefore, the p value is 1/1024 or 0.09765625%.
Yes, now answer this. How likely is it that the coin was indeed very close to 50% chance for heads and 50% chance for tails each toss?
Is it 0.097... %?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 161 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:35 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 167 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:43 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 168 of 703 (915088)
02-09-2024 7:43 PM
Reply to: Message 164 by Taq
02-09-2024 7:40 PM


Re: Mutations Confirm Common Descent
quote:
Cars can use diesel or electric motors.
What is your point? Animals can have fur or feathers or something else. I can also name differences. But what is the point?
You are really good at totally missing the point. As expected for someone who has gone to believe in a faulty theory. As you usually need to be bad at logic to go this wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 164 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:40 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 169 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:48 PM sensei has replied
 Message 173 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 7:55 PM sensei has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 170 of 703 (915090)
02-09-2024 7:48 PM
Reply to: Message 167 by Taq
02-09-2024 7:43 PM


quote:
We are testing the method for predicting whether the next toss will be heads or tails. Please read what I wrote.
Wrong. You managed to miss the point again.
We want to know how likely a theory is to be true. As you claim it to be beyond doubt.
So in this case, it is about how likely the theory of 50% chance is true.
Really, the fact that I need to spell out every single step for you, should not be surprising to me any more. But the huge lack of intelligence that you display here, while claiming to be working in science (and I don't doubt that), makes me feel sorry for the state of science in some areas.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 167 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:43 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 172 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:52 PM sensei has replied
 Message 223 by Percy, posted 02-10-2024 12:03 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 171 of 703 (915091)
02-09-2024 7:51 PM
Reply to: Message 169 by Taq
02-09-2024 7:48 PM


Re: Mutations Confirm Common Descent
quote:
My point, as has been repeated several times now, is that there is no functional reason why separately created life would have to use the same tRNA's and codons.
Sure, because we know every function of all parts of the DNA, and nothing of genetics hold any mystery for us anymore, right?
Really, such arrogance often leads to error.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 169 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:48 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 174 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:58 PM sensei has replied
 Message 231 by Percy, posted 02-10-2024 2:12 PM sensei has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 175 of 703 (915095)
02-09-2024 8:00 PM
Reply to: Message 172 by Taq
02-09-2024 7:52 PM


quote:
The chances of you correctly predicting 10 consecutive flips of the coin is 2^10, or 1 in 1024. Do the math.
So you fail to understand even a single question. I'm not gonna repeat myself. But serioulsy, you should quit your job, better not than tomorrow.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 172 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:52 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 176 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 8:03 PM sensei has replied
 Message 179 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 8:06 PM sensei has replied
 Message 232 by Percy, posted 02-10-2024 2:24 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 177 of 703 (915097)
02-09-2024 8:04 PM
Reply to: Message 174 by Taq
02-09-2024 7:58 PM


Re: Mutations Confirm Common Descent
quote:
Like I said, your ignorance is what prevents you from understanding the evidence.
Says the one who changes subject all the time.
Like when a noob claims if two things are the same color, they must be the same object. And one replies, you can have a red car and a red flower. Then you reply, but but but cars can also be blue. You miss the point like this all the time at every single step of the logic. You are extremely ignorant and clueless.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 174 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 7:58 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 180 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 8:06 PM sensei has not replied
 Message 233 by Percy, posted 02-10-2024 2:28 PM sensei has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 178 of 703 (915098)
02-09-2024 8:05 PM
Reply to: Message 176 by Taq
02-09-2024 8:03 PM


quote:
By the way, the chances of correctly predicting 10 consecutive flips of the coin is not 50-50.
I rest my case. You are hopeless.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 176 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 8:03 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 181 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 8:11 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 185 of 703 (915106)
02-09-2024 9:37 PM
Reply to: Message 179 by Tanypteryx
02-09-2024 8:06 PM


quote:
The chances of you correctly predicting 10 consecutive flips of the coin is 2^10, or 1 in 1024. If this is incorrect, show us you can do the math.
That was never the question. Geeze, you lack braincells as well.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 179 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 8:06 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 187 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 9:41 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 186 of 703 (915107)
02-09-2024 9:39 PM
Reply to: Message 181 by Taq
02-09-2024 8:11 PM


quote:
Read the following
Really, you are hopeless.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 181 by Taq, posted 02-09-2024 8:11 PM Taq has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 188 of 703 (915109)
02-09-2024 9:44 PM
Reply to: Message 182 by AZPaul3
02-09-2024 8:32 PM


quote:
You being here trying to defeat evolution is motivated by your religion. You are a religious actor. I'm in the right spot.
If you gonna respond to everything with some variation of saying b b but religion is dumb, then f.o.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 182 by AZPaul3, posted 02-09-2024 8:32 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 189 of 703 (915110)
02-09-2024 9:48 PM
Reply to: Message 187 by Tanypteryx
02-09-2024 9:41 PM


I already did the math saying that the probability is less than 0.1%. Then I followed it up with a simple, straight forward question. But you managed to fail to understand it even. Like three times I asked, in different wording. Those who still not get it, better leave the talking to others. You are embarrassing to the human intellect.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 187 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 9:41 PM Tanypteryx has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 190 of 703 (915111)
02-09-2024 9:56 PM
Reply to: Message 187 by Tanypteryx
02-09-2024 9:41 PM


quote:
Yet you still can't do the math, can you? And apparently you can't read either.
A person fell down the stairs. What is the probability that this person is female?
People like Taq and Tany respond like: the probability of a person falling down the stairs is very low. What? That was not the question? You cannot read!
This is the level of stupid that I have to deal with day in day out on this board. Even from those who say they are working in the field of science.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 187 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 9:41 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 191 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-09-2024 10:22 PM sensei has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 199 of 703 (915121)
02-10-2024 4:03 AM
Reply to: Message 197 by Theodoric
02-09-2024 11:05 PM


quote:
Since you don't accept science, where do you get knowledge from?
I fully support science. I only reject pseudo science.
quote:
you should take a class on probability and another on statistics.
So you are just another, too dumb to follow or understand a simple question, and support dumb answers to the wrong question.
The question has been asked repeatedly:
sensei:
If I have a model where every coin toss is 50-50 random, and I find 10 successive coin tosses to be tails, those odds would be less than 0.1%.

That does not mean that my model has of 50-50 random, has less than 0.1% chance to be true.
sensei:
How likely is it that the coin was indeed very close to 50% chance for heads and 50% chance for tails each toss?
sensei:
We want to know how likely a theory is to be true. As you claim it to be beyond doubt.

So in this case, it is about how likely the theory of 50% chance is true.
Let me ask a different question, since this one apparently is too difficult for many of you lot.
Researcher 1 claims: this coin is fair, with +/- 0.5 chance for tails when we toss again.
Researcher 2 claims: this coin will always land on tails, no matter how often we toss.
Researcher 3 claims: this coin has been tampered with and hugely favors tails.
What are the odds for these claims? If you bet 10 dollars on the first researcher, what would be your winning chances? How about if you put 10 dollars on the second researcher? And the third?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 197 by Theodoric, posted 02-09-2024 11:05 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 237 by Theodoric, posted 02-10-2024 3:08 PM sensei has not replied
 Message 347 by Taq, posted 02-12-2024 7:22 PM sensei has replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 228 of 703 (915151)
02-10-2024 1:52 PM
Reply to: Message 223 by Percy
02-10-2024 12:03 PM


Percy:
... but are you saying you don't believe that measures of degree of similarity of DNA isn't a measure of relatedness?
This is a no-brainer. Unless you think that similarities between two physical entities must mean that these two are related? And by related, you mean having a common origin by descent?
Even entities that have no process of producing any descent, can and do show similarities with other entities, one way or another. Your whole premises is based on a made up rule that does not work in general.
You can measure the similarities between two chairs. That is not a measure of relateness in any way similar to what you propose for species. Why make up a rule is not even valid one.
You must believe that it is a rule that is valid for living and procreating beings only. Then give me prove that similarities always mean relatelessness. It's not.
Stars show similarities with each other. Does that mean they are related by a common star that split up into smaller stars in the past?
Percy:
I think the point you're trying to make is this: Just as a coin might not be "true", just as it's possible for a coin to be made or weighted in such a way that the probability of heads or tails is not equal, it is possible that the 1038 possibilities that Taq mentioned for independent phylogenies are not all equally probable.
No, you are very wrong. This is not my point at all. I asked, what are the chances that it is a fair coin? What part of this question is so hard, that three evolutionists here fail to understand it? I'm asking for chance, odds or probability or whatever. And how you determined this.
Taq claims that it is the same as the p-value, which is simply not true. The p-value of 1/1024 gives the probability of observing ten times tails, given that we have a fair coin. If you know any Baysian statistics, you should know that this is not the same as the probability that we have a fair coin, given what we observed. Prob(A|B) ≠ Prob(B|A). Very rooky mistake by Taq.
That's how he reasons that non-common ancestry is very unlikely, because we observed something that is very unlikely. That is false reasoning based on poor understanding of what the p-value really means.
So what you think that my point is, is totally not my point at all.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 223 by Percy, posted 02-10-2024 12:03 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 230 by Tanypteryx, posted 02-10-2024 2:06 PM sensei has not replied

  
sensei
Member (Idle past 266 days)
Posts: 482
Joined: 01-24-2023


Message 279 of 703 (915209)
02-11-2024 3:28 AM
Reply to: Message 232 by Percy
02-10-2024 2:24 PM


Percy:
Because there is much we still don't know of DNA and genetics it is therefore arrogant of you to perform analyses of what we do know.
Wrong again. It's about the assuptions of parts of DNA not having any function, so it should be random if there is no common ancestor.
quote:
Did I guess right about the point I think you're trying to make
No, not even close, as I already pointed out and explained.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 232 by Percy, posted 02-10-2024 2:24 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 298 by Percy, posted 02-11-2024 8:14 AM sensei has not replied

  
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