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Author | Topic: Why There Are Gold Bugs & Silver Stackers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
I wanted to bring the rabbit trail conversations from the 2024 Presidential thread over here so that we can rationally (hopefully) discuss the role of hard assets in a likely hard-ass future.
First...about the topic itself. Way back in roughly the year 1995, I received a small inheritance from a deceased Uncle. I sunk ALL of it into Gold, Silver, and Platinum. The Gold was bought at roughly $400.00 an ounce. IIRC, I bought 40 ounces. I also bought 20 ounces of platinum, valued at roughly $450.00 an ounce and 4000 ounces of silver, valued at $4.00 an ounce. Sadly, I grew impatient when the prices barely budged and sold it all within ten years. Fool that I am, I wanted quick ways to make money and acquired a gambling addiction. Had I saved it, I would now have a portfolio of roughly $250,000.00 and would be ready to retire. Critics will say that if I had put the money in stocks instead I would be far wealthier...which I don't dispute but times are arguably different now. Modern investing in fiat assets backed by nothing more than dollars is a house of cards getting ready to implode. The metals gain no compound interest and thus are not as good of an investment when things are going up, but the math can and does work entirely in reverse when things are coming back down. Though, indeed, one cannot eat a rock, one can wipe their arse with paper money in times of rampant inflation. Let us discuss this topic on the definition of the value of hard assets vs fiat currencies.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Taq writes: "They" tell us its running around 4.5%. I dispute that, though have no counter data except personal observation.
Our economy would be dire straits if there was deflation of the dollar. Some inflation (1-3%) is good thing for an economy.The prices at the grocery store don't shift day to day based on the changing price of gold. Everything is advertised with a cost in dollars, not gold. When you pay taxes you can only pay your taxes in dollars My grocery budget is running at least 25% higher than a year ago.
Theo writes: I may have been *told* a lot of things by various sources but that does not mean I do not question their accuracy.
As you have been told repeatedly. Wrong, wrong and did I say wrong. Theo writes: Faith in what? The faith and credit of the United States of America is the best backing any currency could have. Perhaps your faith is misplaced. The "value" of Gold has remained stable. The value (purchasing power) of the U.S. Dollar is declining. You may retort that the reason that the price of gold goes up is due to inflation and depreciation of the US Dollar, but this only proves the dollar's weakness rather than its strength. It's a house of cards. If ever there is a financial reset, the bedrock of it all is gold. Not people. Not productivity. Not military strength. The faith and credit of the United States is precisely part of this topic, just so you all know. Taq writes: I'm not so sure who is living in fantasyland, but I know im not the only one. What do you mean by "cover"? Fiat currencies have no definite mass so are not defineably "covered". The abstract which is covered is value.
There isn't enough available gold to cover a tiny fraction of the US dollars in circulation, much less the currency of the rest of the world. You are living in fantasyland. Taq writes: Gold may be a paperweight in some fantasyland, but fiat currencies are simply paper in other points of view.
Gold has value because you can trade it in for dollars. If you couldn't trade gold for dollars then it would not have any value. It would just be a paperweight. The value of gold is based on what other people are willing to pay for it, in fiat currency. The only upside is that gold prices probably won't ever tank like a stock can.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Not that it's any of your business, but it was $40,000.00.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Theo writes:
Several questions.
Bullshit. Provide facts and figures. Anecdotes are not evidence. Comparing grocery bills year to year to come up with some sort of inflation rate is stupid. People's tastes change, they change diets. There are regional issues.As for the rest of the crap you spout. Look up deflation. YOu are wrong about gold. The same could be said about any other metal commodity. None of them are bedrocks. You are the mark every scammer is looking for. This may or may not be helpful.
quote:Now as to your request that I understand deflation, note that I am well aware that the Great Depression was a deflationary depression. Many well-schooled people * not affiliated* with either the government dept. of the treasury or the Federal Reserve expect any future recessions or depressions in this era to be inflationary or even briefly hyperinflationary rather than deflationary. Silver Prices: XAG/USD Showcases Strength Amid Inflation Fears The U.S. Military uses a lot of silver! While the exact amounts needed are classified, the point is that silver is an industrial metal with lots of uses as well as a historic store of "value". In conclusion, I respect Taqs argument that precious metals should be a part of a balanced portfolio. Experts recommend 5-10%.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Theo writes:
Also we all know Phat has no actual facts and figures. He pulled the 25% figure out of his ass.
So what? CNBC has a good article you might take notice of.
Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show before long You fancy yourself a wise and prudent investor and I have no qualms with that. You have done well in the past when I was a fool who gambled. Don't think for a minute that I only listen to rubes and shysters. I may have been born at night but *not* last night!
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
No.
You can give 5 forcasts for inflation numbers...all of them by relevant degree bearing individuals and still not arrive at a precise and correct number. Numbers are elusive and can be manipulative. I'm not saying that our current government gives out false or misleading information. Im saying that nobody knows the actual number.| As another example: I have heard that the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power, but I am unclear what the numbers mean and if they are accurate. (since 1888) If that number is true, Golds value in 1888 should be at the very least 97% higher and in fact is much more than that. Gold does not ever decline in value. It only declines in value relative to fiat currencies. The question is which train is actually moving and which train is standing still?
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Quit trying to frame the issue(s). In my opinion, you are not yet done. You are roughly medium rare.
Theo writes:
Remind me what the actual subject is again? Oh that's right...I started the topic! Lets see...
If you want to discuss the actual subject fine.quote: Taq writes: I would look into the idea that the stock market is propped up and that some companies buy their own stock. I also have heard that the FED itself plays around with money and numbers. I can see Theo looking at me now demanding hard data...so I best get busy finding some.!
I would fully agree that stocks do come with risk, but the fact they are bought and sold in dollars is not why they are risky.Theo writes: Does everyone believe that? What is it precisely that we have "faith" in? The faith and credit of the United States of America is the best backing any currency could have. I have heard that if faith in the treasury and credit markets was ever shaken and that mass of money found no safe haven except Gold, the value of Gold would momentarily reach $60,000.00+ per ounce.What would Biden do then? Confiscate it all like FDR did? Theo writes: OK. I challenge you to verify the official government numbers! How do you propose to do that?
So your "personal observation" is more valid than verifiable facts and data points? Theo writes: If I did, would you only trust the figures if they made your anxiety less? If the source had a "relevant degree"? Whatever the frack that means! Bullshit. Provide facts and figures. Anecdotes are not evidence.Answer my question.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Taq writes: There *is* a crises in China. There's no economic apocalypse in Japan even though their economic numbers look way worse than ours. And they aren't even the world's currency for trade, something that gives the US way more margin for error. Stay tuned...we all are not out of the woods yet.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Are we ever out of the woods? No.What do the woods symbolize to you? Confusion. No clear sense of direction. Increased spending year after year to combat causes that have no solution. A dilution of the pursuit of happiness and peace of mind.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
I never said to do nothing. What I am implying is that we cannot nor should not keep borrowing against the equity of our country. We need a sound fiscal balance sheet moving forward. We cannot pay the worlds bills.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Do you want no public debt? Not if the public is in debt to the rest of the world.In fact, not even if the public is in debt to the US treasury. Some debt is inevitable and is ok. We are stepping beyond that safety zone. So do nothing about anything? Would you sacrifice the safety of your retirement savings to help the masses?
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Percy writes: The next 25 years will be nothing like the last 25. About 20 years later as retirement was getting closer and it was time to start managing our money better I finally took a look at my old stock account. It had done fantastic! Ignoring it and doing nothing was the best strategy. That being said, I agree with your strategy of not touching it. I failed at my opportunities.
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Theo writes: What if not everybody wants to add to the debt?
who else is going to take out debt?
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Phat Member Posts: 18690 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.5 |
Yes. As Taq mentions, we are "supposed" to pay down the debt in good times so as to weather the bad times. This is not happening. What irks me is that nobody seems to care. Too much debt outstanding may eventually come back to bite us in the arse.
I fear that it will. Am I being irrational?
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