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Author Topic:   Why There Are Gold Bugs & Silver Stackers
Phat
Member
Posts: 18690
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 1 of 64 (916882)
03-15-2024 3:11 PM


I wanted to bring the rabbit trail conversations from the 2024 Presidential thread over here so that we can rationally (hopefully) discuss the role of hard assets in a likely hard-ass future.
First...about the topic itself. Way back in roughly the year 1995, I received a small inheritance from a deceased Uncle. I sunk ALL of it into Gold, Silver, and Platinum. The Gold was bought at roughly $400.00 an ounce. IIRC, I bought 40 ounces. I also bought 20 ounces of platinum, valued at roughly $450.00 an ounce and 4000 ounces of silver, valued at $4.00 an ounce. Sadly, I grew impatient when the prices barely budged and sold it all within ten years. Fool that I am, I wanted quick ways to make money and acquired a gambling addiction. Had I saved it, I would now have a portfolio of roughly $250,000.00 and would be ready to retire. Critics will say that if I had put the money in stocks instead I would be far wealthier...which I don't dispute but times are arguably different now. Modern investing in fiat assets backed by nothing more than dollars is a house of cards getting ready to implode. The metals gain no compound interest and thus are not as good of an investment when things are going up, but the math can and does work entirely in reverse when things are coming back down. Though, indeed, one cannot eat a rock, one can wipe their arse with paper money in times of rampant inflation.
Let us discuss this topic on the definition of the value of hard assets vs fiat currencies.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 3:14 PM Phat has replied
 Message 3 by Taq, posted 03-15-2024 3:43 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18690
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 4 of 64 (916886)
03-15-2024 3:53 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Taq
03-15-2024 3:43 PM


Hard Ass(ets)
Taq writes:
Our economy would be dire straits if there was deflation of the dollar. Some inflation (1-3%) is good thing for an economy.
"They" tell us its running around 4.5%. I dispute that, though have no counter data except personal observation.
The prices at the grocery store don't shift day to day based on the changing price of gold. Everything is advertised with a cost in dollars, not gold. When you pay taxes you can only pay your taxes in dollars
My grocery budget is running at least 25% higher than a year ago.
Theo writes:
As you have been told repeatedly. Wrong, wrong and did I say wrong.
I may have been *told* a lot of things by various sources but that does not mean I do not question their accuracy.
Theo writes:
The faith and credit of the United States of America is the best backing any currency could have.
Faith in what?
Perhaps your faith is misplaced.
The "value" of Gold has remained stable. The value (purchasing power) of the U.S. Dollar is declining.
You may retort that the reason that the price of gold goes up is due to inflation and depreciation of the US Dollar, but this only proves the dollar's weakness rather than its strength.
It's a house of cards.
If ever there is a financial reset, the bedrock of it all is gold. Not people. Not productivity. Not military strength. The faith and credit of the United States is precisely part of this topic, just so you all know.
Taq writes:
There isn't enough available gold to cover a tiny fraction of the US dollars in circulation, much less the currency of the rest of the world. You are living in fantasyland.
I'm not so sure who is living in fantasyland, but I know im not the only one. What do you mean by "cover"? Fiat currencies have no definite mass so are not defineably "covered". The abstract which is covered is value.
Taq writes:
Gold has value because you can trade it in for dollars. If you couldn't trade gold for dollars then it would not have any value. It would just be a paperweight. The value of gold is based on what other people are willing to pay for it, in fiat currency. The only upside is that gold prices probably won't ever tank like a stock can.
Gold may be a paperweight in some fantasyland, but fiat currencies are simply paper in other points of view.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Taq, posted 03-15-2024 3:43 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Taq, posted 03-15-2024 4:06 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 4:08 PM Phat has replied
 Message 12 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-15-2024 4:44 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18690
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 6 of 64 (916888)
03-15-2024 3:59 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Theodoric
03-15-2024 3:14 PM


Not that it's any of your business, but it was $40,000.00.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 3:14 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by Taq, posted 03-15-2024 4:14 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 10 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 4:25 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18690
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 22 of 64 (916909)
03-16-2024 8:34 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Theodoric
03-15-2024 4:08 PM


Re: Hard Ass(ets)
Theo writes:
Bullshit. Provide facts and figures. Anecdotes are not evidence. Comparing grocery bills year to year to come up with some sort of inflation rate is stupid. People's tastes change, they change diets. There are regional issues.
As for the rest of the crap you spout. Look up deflation. YOu are wrong about gold. The same could be said about any other metal commodity. None of them are bedrocks.
You are the mark every scammer is looking for.
Several questions.
  • In modern monetary "theory" (as opposed to fact) what *is* the bedrock of the global financial system? Provide facts and data.
    This may or may not be helpful.
    quote:
    Can precious metals like silver truly act as stable stores of value in an uncertain economic landscape? Some investors believe that silver's intrinsic qualities make it an effective hedge against inflation over the long term. Yet, critics argue that silver is too volatile to rely on.
    In this article, we will analyze the characteristics that make commodities reliable inflation hedges, judging how well silver stacks up and whether it deserves consideration as a secure asset.
    Silver as a Store of Value
  • Metal's Demand
    Silver has diverse applications, from jewelry and coinage to electronics and solar panels. This industrial usefulness creates a baseline level of constant demand.
    Additionally, silver has enduring appeal as an asset with a store of value, generating investment demand. Healthy demand exists for both physical silver and paper vehicles like ETFs.(I do not recommend ETFS. They too are part of the paper house of cards)
  • Scarcity of the Metal Commodity
    Like gold, silver is rare and limited in quantity. While estimates vary, the total worldwide stocks of silver are around 530,000 metric tons. That may sound abundant, but it's very small compared to annual demand and production. Scarcity supports silver's value.
    Silver does exhibit volatility, sometimes even more than gold. But over long periods, silver has proven itself a stable way of preserving purchasing power.
    For example, with U.S. inflation averaging 3.8% from 1913 to 2022, silver has kept pace, appreciating in real terms. Periodic volatility is a trade-off that comes with silver's upside potential.(not taking into consideration compound interest, to be fair)
  • Transportability
    Silver is a precious metal with remarkable density, measuring nearly 20 times denser than gold. This unique characteristic makes it an excellent choice for those who value compactness and convenience.
    Unlike other commodities that can be quite bulky and cumbersome, silver is much easier to store and transport due to its high density. Even if you possess a significant amount of silver bullion, you can keep it secure and safe by storing it in a vault or private location.
    This feature is particularly advantageous for those who want to keep their investments protected and accessible at all times.

  • Now as to your request that I understand deflation, note that I am well aware that the Great Depression was a deflationary depression. Many well-schooled people * not affiliated* with either the government dept. of the treasury or the Federal Reserve expect any future recessions or depressions in this era to be inflationary or even briefly hyperinflationary rather than deflationary.
    Silver Prices: XAG/USD Showcases Strength Amid Inflation Fears
    The U.S. Military uses a lot of silver! While the exact amounts needed are classified, the point is that silver is an industrial metal with lots of uses as well as a historic store of "value".
    In conclusion, I respect Taqs argument that precious metals should be a part of a balanced portfolio. Experts recommend 5-10%.

  • This message is a reply to:
     Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 4:08 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 24 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:03 PM Phat has replied
     Message 32 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:21 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 23 of 64 (916910)
    03-16-2024 8:50 AM
    Reply to: Message 21 by Theodoric
    03-15-2024 10:32 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Theo writes:
    Also we all know Phat has no actual facts and figures. He pulled the 25% figure out of his ass.
    So what?
    CNBC has a good article you might take notice of.
    Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show before long
    You fancy yourself a wise and prudent investor and I have no qualms with that. You have done well in the past when I was a fool who gambled. Don't think for a minute that I only listen to rubes and shysters. I may have been born at night but *not* last night!

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 21 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 10:32 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 25 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:04 PM Phat has replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 26 of 64 (916922)
    03-16-2024 3:37 PM
    Reply to: Message 25 by Theodoric
    03-16-2024 1:04 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    No.
    You can give 5 forcasts for inflation numbers...all of them by relevant degree bearing individuals and still not arrive at a precise and correct number. Numbers are elusive and can be manipulative. I'm not saying that our current government gives out false or misleading information. Im saying that nobody knows the actual number.
    |
    As another example: I have heard that the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power, but I am unclear what the numbers mean and if they are accurate. (since 1888)
    If that number is true, Golds value in 1888 should be at the very least 97% higher and in fact is much more than that. Gold does not ever decline in value. It only declines in value relative to fiat currencies. The question is which train is actually moving and which train is standing still?

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 25 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:04 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 27 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 3:40 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 33 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:29 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 28 of 64 (916924)
    03-16-2024 3:59 PM
    Reply to: Message 24 by Theodoric
    03-16-2024 1:03 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Quit trying to frame the issue(s). In my opinion, you are not yet done. You are roughly medium rare.
    Theo writes:
    If you want to discuss the actual subject fine.
    Remind me what the actual subject is again? Oh that's right...I started the topic! Lets see...
    quote:
    Let us discuss this topic on the definition of the value of hard assets vs fiat currencies.
    Taq writes:
    I would fully agree that stocks do come with risk, but the fact they are bought and sold in dollars is not why they are risky.
    I would look into the idea that the stock market is propped up and that some companies buy their own stock. I also have heard that the FED itself plays around with money and numbers. I can see Theo looking at me now demanding hard data...so I best get busy finding some.!
    Theo writes:
    The faith and credit of the United States of America is the best backing any currency could have.
    Does everyone believe that? What is it precisely that we have "faith" in?
    I have heard that if faith in the treasury and credit markets was ever shaken and that mass of money found no safe haven except Gold, the value of Gold would momentarily reach $60,000.00+ per ounce.
    What would Biden do then? Confiscate it all like FDR did?
    Theo writes:
    So your "personal observation" is more valid than verifiable facts and data points?
    OK. I challenge you to verify the official government numbers! How do you propose to do that?
    Theo writes:
    Bullshit. Provide facts and figures. Anecdotes are not evidence.
    If I did, would you only trust the figures if they made your anxiety less? If the source had a "relevant degree"? Whatever the frack that means!
    Answer my question.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 24 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:03 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 29 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 4:09 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 34 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:49 AM Phat has replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 35 of 64 (917103)
    03-21-2024 3:39 PM
    Reply to: Message 34 by Taq
    03-18-2024 11:49 AM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Taq writes:
    There's no economic apocalypse in Japan even though their economic numbers look way worse than ours. And they aren't even the world's currency for trade, something that gives the US way more margin for error.
    There *is* a crises in China.
    Stay tuned...we all are not out of the woods yet.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 34 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:49 AM Taq has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 36 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-21-2024 3:59 PM Phat has replied
     Message 37 by Taq, posted 03-21-2024 5:15 PM Phat has not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 38 of 64 (917144)
    03-23-2024 10:40 AM
    Reply to: Message 36 by Tanypteryx
    03-21-2024 3:59 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Are we ever out of the woods?
    No.
    What do the woods symbolize to you?
    Confusion. No clear sense of direction. Increased spending year after year to combat causes that have no solution. A dilution of the pursuit of happiness and peace of mind.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 36 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-21-2024 3:59 PM Tanypteryx has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 39 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-23-2024 12:04 PM Phat has not replied
     Message 40 by Theodoric, posted 03-23-2024 1:03 PM Phat has replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 41 of 64 (917149)
    03-23-2024 3:21 PM
    Reply to: Message 40 by Theodoric
    03-23-2024 1:03 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    I never said to do nothing. What I am implying is that we cannot nor should not keep borrowing against the equity of our country. We need a sound fiscal balance sheet moving forward. We cannot pay the worlds bills.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 40 by Theodoric, posted 03-23-2024 1:03 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 42 by Theodoric, posted 03-23-2024 5:53 PM Phat has replied
     Message 48 by Taq, posted 03-25-2024 11:03 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 43 of 64 (917161)
    03-24-2024 3:48 PM
    Reply to: Message 42 by Theodoric
    03-23-2024 5:53 PM


    Assets and Liabilities...Unfunded Obligations?
    Do you want no public debt?
    Not if the public is in debt to the rest of the world.
    In fact, not even if the public is in debt to the US treasury. Some debt is inevitable and is ok. We are stepping beyond that safety zone.
    So do nothing about anything?
    Would you sacrifice the safety of your retirement savings to help the masses?

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 42 by Theodoric, posted 03-23-2024 5:53 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 45 by Theodoric, posted 03-24-2024 7:30 PM Phat has replied
     Message 49 by Taq, posted 03-25-2024 11:06 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 44 of 64 (917162)
    03-24-2024 3:50 PM
    Reply to: Message 16 by Percy
    03-15-2024 5:40 PM


    Lock Stock and Barrel
    Percy writes:
    About 20 years later as retirement was getting closer and it was time to start managing our money better I finally took a look at my old stock account. It had done fantastic! Ignoring it and doing nothing was the best strategy.
    The next 25 years will be nothing like the last 25.
    That being said, I agree with your strategy of not touching it. I failed at my opportunities.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 16 by Percy, posted 03-15-2024 5:40 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 46 by Theodoric, posted 03-24-2024 7:31 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 47 of 64 (917171)
    03-25-2024 2:32 AM
    Reply to: Message 45 by Theodoric
    03-24-2024 7:30 PM


    Re: Assets and Liabilities...Unfunded Obligations?
    Theo writes:
    who else is going to take out debt?
    What if not everybody wants to add to the debt?

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 45 by Theodoric, posted 03-24-2024 7:30 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 50 by Theodoric, posted 03-25-2024 1:44 PM Phat has replied
     Message 55 by AZPaul3, posted 03-25-2024 3:09 PM Phat has not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18690
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 4.5


    Message 51 of 64 (917186)
    03-25-2024 1:56 PM
    Reply to: Message 50 by Theodoric
    03-25-2024 1:44 PM


    Re: Assets and Liabilities...Unfunded Obligations?
    Yes. As Taq mentions, we are "supposed" to pay down the debt in good times so as to weather the bad times. This is not happening. What irks me is that nobody seems to care. Too much debt outstanding may eventually come back to bite us in the arse.
    I fear that it will.
    Am I being irrational?

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 50 by Theodoric, posted 03-25-2024 1:44 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 52 by Taq, posted 03-25-2024 2:07 PM Phat has not replied
     Message 53 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-25-2024 2:15 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 54 by Theodoric, posted 03-25-2024 2:29 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
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