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Author Topic:   The Second Trump Presidency
Phat
Member
Posts: 19052
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 1786 of 1799 (925758)
04-28-2026 1:06 PM


US Iran Warcast Day 61 Malcolm Nance
Day 61
In summary:
Pocket AI notetaker writes:
Core Thesis
The global oil market is currently defined by a widening divergence between artificially suppressed futures prices and the reality of physical supply. While benchmarks like Brent and WTI are being manipulated through strategic reserve releases and increased production, the "real" price of physical oil carries a premium of $35 to $50 per barrel.
Market Analysis & Indicators
• Artificial Price Suppression: Current futures prices ($90–$107 range) are described as "falsely cropped." The release of oil reserves and production hikes are temporary measures masking a deeper supply deficit.
• The Physical Premium: During the early stages of the Ukraine conflict, physical oil reached $166 while futures sat at $95. This gap remains unfilled, indicating that the market has not yet corrected to reflect true scarcity.
• Supply Chain Depletion: Global reserves are reaching critical lows. A significant indicator of this exhaustion is the absence of non-Iranian oil shipments leaving the Persian Gulf for over 60 days.
• Price Trajectory: Despite a brief dip following a "fake ceasefire," Brent crude has rapidly climbed back toward $107. It is currently only $8 away from its wartime peak of $115, despite the absence of a new active escalation.(In other words, Nance mentions that the IRG has even made a Lego video showing what will happen to the global power structure)
Strategic Implications
The current price action suggests that the artificial floor is breaking. The rise in prices during a period without new kinetic triggers indicates that the depletion of physical reserves is now the primary driver of market value. The core question remains: what is the ultimate ceiling once the artificial props are fully exhausted?
Nance suggests that we in America will see $7-8 dollars a gallon by the end of the year and that it wont come back down easily.

If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello
God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter
We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola

Replies to this message:
 Message 1787 by dwise1, posted 04-28-2026 1:13 PM Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 6472
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 1787 of 1799 (925759)
04-28-2026 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 1786 by Phat
04-28-2026 1:06 PM


Re: US Iran Warcast Day 61 Malcolm Nance
What a relief! The Warcast had gone MIA for several days. I was getting worried.
Just queued it up for after I return from a grocery run.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1786 by Phat, posted 04-28-2026 1:06 PM Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6553
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005


Message 1788 of 1799 (925760)
04-28-2026 2:09 PM
Reply to: Message 1784 by Phat
04-27-2026 5:26 PM


Re: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus
Phat writes in Message 1784:
The problem with you progressives, however, is that you see nothing "special" about Israel and likely support Iran's "right to exist" more than the Jews.
You seem to comparing the question of whether Iran is a right to exist, with the question of whether Jews have the right to exist.
That's like comparing apples and oranges. Iran is a country, while Jews are people.
For the record, I'm neutral on whether Iran should exist. However Jews do exist and are part of the humanity, so they have every right to exist.
I used to think that Israel should exist. But after the atrocities committed in Gaza, I'm now neutral on the question of Israel's existence.

Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1784 by Phat, posted 04-27-2026 5:26 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1792 by Phat, posted 04-29-2026 11:43 AM nwr has replied

  
DrJones*
Member
Posts: 2431
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004


Message 1789 of 1799 (925765)
04-28-2026 10:57 PM
Reply to: Message 1784 by Phat
04-27-2026 5:26 PM


Re: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus
The problem with you progressives, however, is that you see nothing "special" about Israel
why would we think there is anything special about Israel?

It's not enough to bash in heads, you've got to bash in minds
soon I discovered that this rock thing was true
Jerry Lee Lewis was the devil
Jesus was an architect previous to his career as a prophet
All of a sudden i found myself in love with the world
And so there was only one thing I could do
Was ding a ding dang my dang along ling long - Jesus Built my Hotrod Ministry
Live every week like it's Shark Week! - Tracey Jordan
Just a monkey in a long line of kings. - Matthew Good
If "elitist" just means "not the dumbest motherfucker in the room", I'll be an elitist! - Get Your War On
*not an actual doctor

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1784 by Phat, posted 04-27-2026 5:26 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1791 by Phat, posted 04-29-2026 11:35 AM DrJones* has replied

  
Zucadragon
Member
Posts: 262
From: Netherlands
Joined: 06-28-2006


Message 1790 of 1799 (925770)
04-29-2026 9:25 AM


I just had an interesting discussion with another Dutchy, because the news here follows Trumps antics pretty closely because especially right now, they have a lot of effect on the world as a whole, whee.
So it was about Trump saying Iran doesn't know how to create a Nuclear Deal and that Iran has to become smarter.
It's ironic that Trump is the one who broke down the deal Obama made, but in my discussion with this person, who thought that was a good decision, something came to the front:
People are speaking about a deal they don't know enough about. He was making the argument that because of the deal, the US couldn't push "Nuclear sanctions" on Iran anymore, and that was dangerous, because that's the whole point.
And I was like, wait a moment, you'r getting this all wrong. the "Nuclear Sanctions" are the sanctions used to push the country to start talks towards a deal, economic sanctions, sanctions on trade, that sort of stuff.
None of those are Nuclear in nature, but they are the sanctions we're using to pressure Irans Nuclear plans.
When the deal is made and Iran sticks to it, it means that these sanctions get removed or partially removed as a reward.
A lot of people don't get that, they feel stopping the nuclear capability IS the sanction but that doesn't make any sense, because most of that is internal production, you can't sanction internal production.

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 19052
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 1791 of 1799 (925771)
04-29-2026 11:35 AM
Reply to: Message 1789 by DrJones*
04-28-2026 10:57 PM


Re: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus
Dr.Jones writes:
why would we think there is anything special about Israel?
You wouldn't. And yet you and your ilk teach college kids to be critical of America...and Israel while cheering on Palestine despite the cancer that is Hamas, one of Irans state sponsored anti-Israeli armies along with Hezbollah and those pesky Houthis. Can you blame Israel for overreacting? They have 9 million people against over a hundred million hostile enemies. And yet the cry is for Palestine to be freed up no matter who runs the place. Such hypocrisy! And I keep forgetting that you hate Christians and support these Islamic regimes. Such warped thinking you have been taught!!

If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello
God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter
We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1789 by DrJones*, posted 04-28-2026 10:57 PM DrJones* has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1794 by DrJones*, posted 04-29-2026 8:24 PM Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 19052
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 1792 of 1799 (925772)
04-29-2026 11:43 AM
Reply to: Message 1788 by nwr
04-28-2026 2:09 PM


Re: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus
nwr writes:
I used to think that Israel should exist. But after the atrocities committed in Gaza, I'm now neutral on the question of Israel's existence.
Are you neutral on whether Hamas should continue running Palestine? The whole reason that Palestine was demolished is because those clever Hamas hid amongst ordinary people and wouldn't take ownership of the initial attack on Israel. I am against freeing Palestine if it includes giving members of Hamas a pass.

If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello
God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter
We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1788 by nwr, posted 04-28-2026 2:09 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1793 by nwr, posted 04-29-2026 1:42 PM Phat has not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6553
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005


Message 1793 of 1799 (925773)
04-29-2026 1:42 PM
Reply to: Message 1792 by Phat
04-29-2026 11:43 AM


Re: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus
Phat writes in Message 1792:
Are you neutral on whether Hamas should continue running Palestine?
I have no say in who runs Palestine. That's up to the people who live there.
I would prefer that they did not vote for Hamas people. Likewise, I would prefer that Israelis did not vote for Netanyahu. But I don't have a vote in either of those places.

Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1792 by Phat, posted 04-29-2026 11:43 AM Phat has not replied

  
DrJones*
Member
Posts: 2431
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004


Message 1794 of 1799 (925775)
04-29-2026 8:24 PM
Reply to: Message 1791 by Phat
04-29-2026 11:35 AM


Re: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus
And I keep forgetting that you hate Christians and support these Islamic regimes. Such warped thinking you have been taught!!
Jesus doesn't like it when you lie Phat.
And yet you and your ilk teach college kids to be critical of America...and Israel
people should be critical of America and Israel, blind worship of any authority is bad.
while cheering on Palestine despite the cancer that is Hamas
please show any post where i'm cheering on Palestine or admit to being a liar.

It's not enough to bash in heads, you've got to bash in minds
soon I discovered that this rock thing was true
Jerry Lee Lewis was the devil
Jesus was an architect previous to his career as a prophet
All of a sudden i found myself in love with the world
And so there was only one thing I could do
Was ding a ding dang my dang along ling long - Jesus Built my Hotrod Ministry
Live every week like it's Shark Week! - Tracey Jordan
Just a monkey in a long line of kings. - Matthew Good
If "elitist" just means "not the dumbest motherfucker in the room", I'll be an elitist! - Get Your War On
*not an actual doctor

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1791 by Phat, posted 04-29-2026 11:35 AM Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2747
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 1795 of 1799 (925792)
04-30-2026 4:26 PM


The United Arab Emirates is attempting American media strategies to fight propaganda.
The Christian Science Monitor, naturally, will try to present the pro-war effort in a negative light, but it reported that the U.A.E. is aware of the pro Iran propaganda winning the PR battle against the liberal side (Kurds, Israel, United States, UAE, etc ).
The newspaper said the UAE is trying to get the United States media to present Iran as unhinged.
I am not sure what it could take to fight the pro-Iran propaganda. I would just give up and fight the war of defense against the right wing theocracy as the fascist Islamic Republic wages a constant (literal) war against civilians from Israel to Kurdistan to the Arab Gulf to the civilians in the Iranian nation on its side of the Persian Gulf.
Iran keeps killing civilians.
While the propaganda against the civilians requires false criticism of Israel - not to protect civilians, but to weaken Israeli efforts to protect civilians in Israel, United Arab Emirates, Iraqi Kurdistan, Bahrain, Iran etc. from the Islamic Republic.
The UAE should give up the PR effort - powerful right wing forces wil win the PR war.
Just be ready to join Israel, Kurdistan, and the United States in the fight for liberal values and a pluralistic society.
Defeat the crazy theocracy and know that true progressives support you 100%.

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 19052
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 1796 of 1799 (925803)
05-02-2026 9:55 AM
Reply to: Message 1359 by Rahvin
11-12-2025 4:26 PM


Re: SNAP and the voters who voted against their best interest
Rahvin writes:
I would agree that people steal and commit other crime mostly due to economic pressure.

There are cases of crimes of passion and crimes of excess as well, but in the case of crimes like shoplifting the vast majority of cases are due to economic pressure. Lack of resources, lack of opportunity, desperation, perceived or actual helplessness, etc.

Given we seem to agree on the cause of crime, what do you think is the most effective strategy to reduce crime? Try to think multiple chained consequences ahead.
Only in America do we lock up the merchandise and have a hands off approach to the thief. Throwing money at them wont stop the shoplifting.
I predict that shoplifting will only get worse due to worsening economic conditions in 2026. Its time for the thieves to be accountable for their addiction. Perhaps the police could use drones to follow these people. We have at least ten incidents a day involving several hundred dollars each where the thieves walk in, grab what they want and leave through a fire exit. And all that the shoplifters say is "You cant touch me". America is becoming morally bankrupt...slowly yet steadily.

If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello
God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter
We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1359 by Rahvin, posted 11-12-2025 4:26 PM Rahvin has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1797 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-05-2026 3:03 PM Phat has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2747
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 3.8


(1)
Message 1797 of 1799 (925807)
05-05-2026 3:03 PM
Reply to: Message 1796 by Phat
05-02-2026 9:55 AM


Shop lifting interests. Californian people's interests.
California did just vote, via referendum, for tough punishments on shoplifting.
It looks to me the motivating factor was NOT ethics, but to make things much tougher on homeless and prospective homeless.
California has been pretty tough on the homeless - opposition to funding homeless shelters is widespread.
But the Californian population has recently noticed that the near decriminalization (essentially not a crime) of shoplifting has made life easier for the homeless.
So the 2024 referendum "fixed" that.
So much for the California Dream...
(California is the seventh largest economy in the world, but California can't afford boarding schools for the tiny transgender
population, so the small minority can get a district where they can have sports and educational opportunities and programs)
California is wealthier than shit, but heaven forbid some spare change goes to the poor or sexual minorities.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1796 by Phat, posted 05-02-2026 9:55 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1798 by Phat, posted 05-06-2026 9:45 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 19052
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 1798 of 1799 (925808)
05-06-2026 9:45 AM
Reply to: Message 1797 by LamarkNewAge
05-05-2026 3:03 PM


Re: Shop lifting interests. Californian people's interests.
LNA writes:
California did just vote, via referendum, for tough punishments on shoplifting.

It looks to me the motivating factor was NOT ethics, but to make things much tougher on homeless and prospective homeless.
To be clear, I am not hating on homelessness. I AM opposed to retail theft at the levels that I see at my work and I am frustrated that in a progressive blue state security personnel have no power or authority to stop the theft. It's a cheap way to handle the problem through allowing it to happen unchecked. By allowing people to steal, the word on the street gets around that there is no punitive action that can even be taken by the retailer and that essentially the doors are wide open for scofflaws to help themselves. This goes against everything that I was ever taught about stealing. The problem is a growing one. Around here in bleeding heart secular humanist EvC, I am scolded and admonished for not "thinking more like Jesus". Yet nobody actually knows what Jesus would do were He working for an employer. Perhaps He would tall us to" render unto Caesar that which is Caesars and to God what is Gods." Of course He would love all of us and would not discriminate against anyone with sin (since that would include ALL of us! ) Still it bothers me to see what I perceive as a societal breakdown and to have our hands tied.
My attitude is a bit selfish, TBH. I say "If I dont get it for nothing, NOBODY gets it for nothing."!! And I DO help some people who are a bit short on funds yet who want to pay. I suppose what it is that irritates me are people who take advantage and steal day after day, week after week, and month after month.
In a larger context this is why I am not a liberal. I think it is unfair to have a Robin Hood approach to politics. And yet I do NOT identify with the Sheriff OF Nottingham either. I agree with No Kings Day except in regard to the One King of Kings who is over all of us by default. Every knee shall bow.... believer or non-believer. I guess I will shut up now...

If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello
God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter
We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1797 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-05-2026 3:03 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1799 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-07-2026 9:28 PM Phat has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2747
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 1799 of 1799 (925818)
05-07-2026 9:28 PM
Reply to: Message 1798 by Phat
05-06-2026 9:45 AM


Re: Shop lifting interests. Californian people's interests.
I just used AI to discover that California has the highest unsheltered homeless population in the country. I think it said that the absolute numbers are the highest plus 2/3 of homeless are unsheltered.
New York has laws dictated by an unusual state Supreme Court decision, which guarantees a right to shelter, while all other states strongly oppose homeless shelters being a right for the wretched of the earth. Only a small fraction of cities & towns have homeless shelters, and it is more limited in availability for men than females. Typically, the stay will be limited to a strict maximum amount of days - often 39 to 90 nights.
California is in a situation where homeless shelters would be the (like everywhere else) cheapest solution to the homeless problem (by far, when comparing options), but it also is the most controversial policy imaginable to provide shelters for the homeless. Very politically toxic, and as unpopular as Ebola.
NIMBY is a powerful mantra from the homeowner base in every neighborhood.
But it is not going to be a good look for California politicians looking for a promotion to the United States Presidential job when the "opening" is applied for. The voters decide who gets to fill the opening, and the homeless shelter issue will be opposed by the voters, but the same voters will, nevertheless, count the unsheltered homeless population as a very real strike against the job applicant (Gavin Newsome?). I would imagine.
A contradiction among the voters, for sure, but:
Voters can AND DO punish politicians for the same problem that their votes (not to mention attitudes) have decisively created. Both things are often true

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1798 by Phat, posted 05-06-2026 9:45 AM Phat has not replied

  
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