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Author Topic:   Hurricanes defying conventional science.
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 1 of 100 (265509)
12-04-2005 5:12 PM


What do you guys make of Hurricane Epsilon? It should have weakened being over cold water. It doesn't fit the models.
Local Weather Forecast, News and Conditions | Weather Underground
Same with the hurricane south of the equator last year. It's not suppossed to occur since the slant of the earth in conjunction with the earth's spin suppossed to rule that out.
It all seems inexplicable.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 5:47 PM randman has replied
 Message 7 by coffee_addict, posted 12-04-2005 11:31 PM randman has replied
 Message 56 by Hangdawg13, posted 12-05-2005 10:41 AM randman has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 393 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 2 of 100 (265516)
12-04-2005 5:47 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by randman
12-04-2005 5:12 PM


Well so far I have not seen any signs of either storm "defying conventional science". In fact they simply followed pretty well recognized natural events.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 5:12 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:04 PM jar has replied

  
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 3 of 100 (265580)
12-04-2005 11:04 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by jar
12-04-2005 5:47 PM


Then you haven't been paying attention.
The normal expectations were for it to weaken over colder water, but it did not. May have now, but it didn't fit the models. Likewise the hurricane last year in the south Atlantic did not fit the models either.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 5:47 PM jar has replied

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 Message 4 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:13 PM randman has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 393 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 4 of 100 (265583)
12-04-2005 11:13 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by randman
12-04-2005 11:04 PM


Re: Then you haven't been paying attention.
The normal expectations were for it to weaken over colder water, but it did not. May have now, but it didn't fit the models. Likewise the hurricane last year in the south Atlantic did not fit the models either.
May not fit the models of IDist, Creationists, Alien Abductees, Pyramidologists, readers of Ouija boards and other such groups, the it seems to fit the models used to predict it's path.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:04 PM randman has replied

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 Message 5 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:14 PM jar has replied

  
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 5 of 100 (265584)
12-04-2005 11:14 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by jar
12-04-2005 11:13 PM


Re: Then you haven't been paying attention.
Wrong jar. Do you ever bother to do any fact checking. Everyone that follows these storms knows these 2 storms defied the models in a big way.
Grow up and start learning before mouthing off stupidity.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:13 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:26 PM randman has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 393 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 6 of 100 (265586)
12-04-2005 11:26 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by randman
12-04-2005 11:14 PM


Re: Then you haven't been paying attention.
Actually, I do read and pay attention. Living where I do reading all the information from National Hurricane Center is a must. Every day is minimal but every update par for the course when there's a storm. These two storms were driven by exactly the same forces as every other hurricane, and fit well within the limits of all five of the different models used.
The Hurricane season may well be laid out on a calendar, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the storms. They don't read, even calendars. Storms are driven by perfectly normal conditions and it sure isn't inexplicable. 'Cept maybe for those who are willfully ignorant.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:14 PM randman has replied

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coffee_addict
Member (Idle past 476 days)
Posts: 3645
From: Indianapolis, IN
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 7 of 100 (265588)
12-04-2005 11:31 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by randman
12-04-2005 5:12 PM


I'm a bit ignorant on hurricanes because of where I live (I'll never have to worry about those buggers). Tell me how they defy conventional models.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 5:12 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:41 PM coffee_addict has replied
 Message 11 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:42 PM coffee_addict has not replied

  
arachnophilia
Member (Idle past 1343 days)
Posts: 9069
From: god's waiting room
Joined: 05-21-2004


Message 8 of 100 (265590)
12-04-2005 11:37 PM


(pst)
(it got downgraded today)

אָרַח

  
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 9 of 100 (265591)
12-04-2005 11:38 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by jar
12-04-2005 11:26 PM


Re: Then you haven't been paying attention.
Then you either can't read well or are lying.

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 Message 6 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:26 PM jar has not replied

  
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 10 of 100 (265593)
12-04-2005 11:41 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by coffee_addict
12-04-2005 11:31 PM


2 hurricanes
Epsilon was suppossed to weaken much earlier because it was over cold water, and it was somewhat shocking to see it remain a hurricane for so long over cold water.
The hurricane in the south Atlantic likewise defied current models, and they had a very difficult time modelling the hurricane as all the models indicated hurricanes could not form in the south Atlantic.
Of course, it is a growing and learning area of science, but these 2 hurricanes were shockers, and they are trying to figure out how to incorporate their behaviour for future models.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by coffee_addict, posted 12-04-2005 11:31 PM coffee_addict has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by coffee_addict, posted 12-04-2005 11:45 PM randman has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 393 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 11 of 100 (265594)
12-04-2005 11:42 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by coffee_addict
12-04-2005 11:31 PM


One place to start is William Gray
at Colorado State University. Right now he is probably the formost expert on hurricane prediction and what forces and conditions go into determining whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes in any given season.
Like so many things in meterology, we're still pretty early in the learning cycle, but so far there hasn't been anything that would cause a major suffling or paradigm shift in our understanding.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by coffee_addict, posted 12-04-2005 11:31 PM coffee_addict has not replied

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 Message 12 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:45 PM jar has replied

  
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 12 of 100 (265595)
12-04-2005 11:45 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by jar
12-04-2005 11:42 PM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
Epsilon intensified over 70 degree water. Sorry buddy, but that was absolutely not suppossed to happen and it was reported at the time as defying the models.
The storm in the south Atlantic was not suppossed to occur at all, period.

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 Message 11 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:42 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by jar, posted 12-04-2005 11:55 PM randman has replied

  
coffee_addict
Member (Idle past 476 days)
Posts: 3645
From: Indianapolis, IN
Joined: 03-29-2004


Message 13 of 100 (265596)
12-04-2005 11:45 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by randman
12-04-2005 11:41 PM


Re: 2 hurricanes
randman writes:
Of course, it is a growing and learning area of science, but these 2 hurricanes were shockers, and they are trying to figure out how to incorporate their behaviour for future models.
So... what's your point?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:41 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:51 PM coffee_addict has replied

  
randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 14 of 100 (265597)
12-04-2005 11:49 PM


intensifying over cold water
Keep in mind the following deals with the forecast and behaviour in respect to warning people, etc,...So when it reports nothing unusual but, it's in the context that the storm, other than the fact it occured in Dec and strenghened over cold water, was otherwise a normal hurricane.
So, other than the fact that we've simply reached Epsilon, and the fact that it has managed to intensify over 70F (or COOLER) water,
http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html
The discussion is not about the fact it got stronger, but it does show the fact the storm intensified over cold water, something anyone that follows hurricanes knows is not suppossed to happen.
But other than that, in terms of the storm acting like a hurricane, it was pretty typical, but the fact it intensified over cold water is inexplicable really.

Replies to this message:
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randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 15 of 100 (265599)
12-04-2005 11:51 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by coffee_addict
12-04-2005 11:45 PM


Re: 2 hurricanes
The storms defied the current models and we cannot yet explain their behaviour in certain areas.
This message has been edited by randman, 12-04-2005 11:51 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by coffee_addict, posted 12-04-2005 11:45 PM coffee_addict has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by coffee_addict, posted 12-04-2005 11:55 PM randman has replied
 Message 20 by ReverendDG, posted 12-04-2005 11:59 PM randman has replied

  
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