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Author | Topic: Hurricanes defying conventional science. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
What do you guys make of Hurricane Epsilon? It should have weakened being over cold water. It doesn't fit the models.
Local Weather Forecast, News and Conditions | Weather Underground Same with the hurricane south of the equator last year. It's not suppossed to occur since the slant of the earth in conjunction with the earth's spin suppossed to rule that out. It all seems inexplicable.
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jar Member (Idle past 393 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Well so far I have not seen any signs of either storm "defying conventional science". In fact they simply followed pretty well recognized natural events.
Aslan is not a Tame Lion
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
The normal expectations were for it to weaken over colder water, but it did not. May have now, but it didn't fit the models. Likewise the hurricane last year in the south Atlantic did not fit the models either.
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jar Member (Idle past 393 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
The normal expectations were for it to weaken over colder water, but it did not. May have now, but it didn't fit the models. Likewise the hurricane last year in the south Atlantic did not fit the models either. May not fit the models of IDist, Creationists, Alien Abductees, Pyramidologists, readers of Ouija boards and other such groups, the it seems to fit the models used to predict it's path. Aslan is not a Tame Lion
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
Wrong jar. Do you ever bother to do any fact checking. Everyone that follows these storms knows these 2 storms defied the models in a big way.
Grow up and start learning before mouthing off stupidity.
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jar Member (Idle past 393 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Actually, I do read and pay attention. Living where I do reading all the information from National Hurricane Center is a must. Every day is minimal but every update par for the course when there's a storm. These two storms were driven by exactly the same forces as every other hurricane, and fit well within the limits of all five of the different models used.
The Hurricane season may well be laid out on a calendar, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the storms. They don't read, even calendars. Storms are driven by perfectly normal conditions and it sure isn't inexplicable. 'Cept maybe for those who are willfully ignorant. Aslan is not a Tame Lion
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 476 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
I'm a bit ignorant on hurricanes because of where I live (I'll never have to worry about those buggers). Tell me how they defy conventional models.
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arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1343 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
(it got downgraded today)
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
Then you either can't read well or are lying.
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
Epsilon was suppossed to weaken much earlier because it was over cold water, and it was somewhat shocking to see it remain a hurricane for so long over cold water.
The hurricane in the south Atlantic likewise defied current models, and they had a very difficult time modelling the hurricane as all the models indicated hurricanes could not form in the south Atlantic. Of course, it is a growing and learning area of science, but these 2 hurricanes were shockers, and they are trying to figure out how to incorporate their behaviour for future models.
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jar Member (Idle past 393 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
at Colorado State University. Right now he is probably the formost expert on hurricane prediction and what forces and conditions go into determining whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes in any given season.
Like so many things in meterology, we're still pretty early in the learning cycle, but so far there hasn't been anything that would cause a major suffling or paradigm shift in our understanding. Aslan is not a Tame Lion
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
Epsilon intensified over 70 degree water. Sorry buddy, but that was absolutely not suppossed to happen and it was reported at the time as defying the models.
The storm in the south Atlantic was not suppossed to occur at all, period.
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 476 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
randman writes:
So... what's your point?
Of course, it is a growing and learning area of science, but these 2 hurricanes were shockers, and they are trying to figure out how to incorporate their behaviour for future models.
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
Keep in mind the following deals with the forecast and behaviour in respect to warning people, etc,...So when it reports nothing unusual but, it's in the context that the storm, other than the fact it occured in Dec and strenghened over cold water, was otherwise a normal hurricane.
So, other than the fact that we've simply reached Epsilon, and the fact that it has managed to intensify over 70F (or COOLER) water, http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html The discussion is not about the fact it got stronger, but it does show the fact the storm intensified over cold water, something anyone that follows hurricanes knows is not suppossed to happen. But other than that, in terms of the storm acting like a hurricane, it was pretty typical, but the fact it intensified over cold water is inexplicable really.
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randman  Suspended Member (Idle past 4898 days) Posts: 6367 Joined: |
The storms defied the current models and we cannot yet explain their behaviour in certain areas.
This message has been edited by randman, 12-04-2005 11:51 PM
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