How's Your Economy?

A couple years ago during lunch out with my wife while on a Christmas expedition I ventured that the next year, 2001, would be a rough one economically, far rougher than anyone was then predicting. I'm talking about the US, of course, not the world economy.2001 turned out not be to too bad, and I think we were all looking forward to improvements in 2002. And there were times during 2002 that things seemed to be improving, but over the past couple months there's been a turn for the worse. There have been two huge bankruptcy filings in just the past couple weeks (United Airlines and Conseco Insurance), and of course there were the earlier filings of Enron, MCI Worldcom and Arthur Anderson. My own industry, hi-tech, has been increasingly affected, and the pace of layoffs over the past couple months has increased. Things don't look so good.But of course this is possibly just my own perception, and perhaps things appear worse in my neck of the geographic and economic woods than is generally the case, so I thought I'd do a short poll. On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is strongly agree and 5 is strongly disagree:

1. I think my country's economy is in good shape (if not the US, please provide name of country).
   ​
2. I think my country's economy will improve next year.
   ​
3. I think my industry is in good shape (please provide industry)
   ​
4. I think my industry will improve next year.
   ​
5. My job has been secure over the past year (please provide job category).
   ​
6. I think my job is secure for the next year.

Here are my own answers:

1. 3 (US)
2. 4
3. 4 (hi-tech)
4. 4
5. 2 (software developer)
6. 4

Thanks! If I get more than just a few answers I'll provide a summary.--Percy

For my part,1. 5 (Germany) unemployment increasing (10%), record number of bankrupt companies, tax increases (already astronomical), deadlocked government which is unable to come up with good economic policy and when by chance a good idea comes up it cannot get enacted because of the opposition trying to score political points.2. 5...it's all predicted to get worse with a big fat EU financial sanction possible because Germany is 0.8% over the 3% deficit spending cap of the growth and stability pact (which was ironically their own idea to have written into the EU laws)3. 5 (University) Last year they implemented a higher education reform that states everyone has 12 years total to go from the beginning of a Ph.D. to becoming a professor. This would normally be no problem except that in Germany there is the post Ph.D. habilitation requirement which can be excessively long. Couple that with a very small job market for researchers in universities. In effect, people are getting thrown out of work here and are forbidden to work in public sector science after the 12 year period even if you were 1 day away from a Nobel Prize winning result.4. 5 unlikely as education is a really low priority issue considering how crappy the economy is performing.5. 1 (Molecular biologist)6. 4 even the universities are on very shaky ground

From east of Mammuthus1. 4 (Ukraine) Economic statistics are extremely problematic here. Government-provided stats are notoriously unreliable. As an example, GDP allegedly grew by 8% last year, however most non-government experts believe this only applies to Kiev and one or two other cities, and includes foreign technical assistance figures. Most other areas of Ukraine have shown net decline in GDP. Labor statistics are even more questionable. Public statistics claim 3.5% unemployed, but government statistics bureau baldly states 22.3% of the population is "economically inactive", and some regions outside the capital are posting nearly 40% unemployment - there are communities that are literally drying up.2. 3 IF the world economy picks up, and IF legislative reforms favorable to business investment occur, and IF tax reforms are instituted, and IF foreign investment (which has practically dried up) can be incentivized, it is quite possible that the economy here will be better next year.3. 2 (consultant - international development) As long as the donors keep paying, the industry should do okay. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is predicting an increase in donor activity through 2015 (they may be dreaming). However, Ukraine is falling off the skyline because of really stupid stunts they pulled and the corrupt government. It is likely that donor funding priorities will move elsewhere in the developing world - primarily towards health, poverty alleviation and infrastructure development in sub-Saharan Africa.4. 2 Although its something of a fool's game to try and predict what the donor countries will do, many have pledged to increase their development assistance next year. If so, the industry will be in good shape.5. 1 You betcha (country director - Ukraine for an international consulting firm).6. 2 Depends . I have Ukraine funding through 2003, but won't know whether the project will continue beyond that for another few months. However, I consider my prospects very good for another assignment afterwards, regardless. It'll just be a different country than here. Time to move on, probably, in any event (can you say wanderlust?). Since I have a fair amount of Africa experience and a fair amount of Latin America experience, at least I have a shot at going someplace warm for a change... (I'd love to get back into ecology or conservation, but it never did pay as much as development - go figure.)

(Indonesia), currently on the wrong side of things...
1. (5) Not a chance. Clearly. We're flat broke thanks to Suharto & co.
2. (4) Next year is the last year before elections, and the present govt will try to improve. But election-powered boosts tend to wear off very early...
3. (2) (Biology in general) As long as people don't take Harun Yahya seriously, we're still running. But nobody in the country know us...
4. (N/A) (Taxonomy) its not an industry,
5. (3) (Translator) Depends on my publisher
6. (4) I'll be getting my post as lecturer in UI next year.

Q, try my place? Maybe the birds and large mammals of Indonesia need you?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Andya Primanda:
Q, try my place? Maybe the birds and large mammals of Indonesia need you?

---

Andya: I'd LOVE to work in Indonesia. Some of your islands have some of the neatest tropical forest ecosystems still in existence. I'd wager there are lots of undocumented species - from arthropods to orchids - that nobody's ever seen. I actually came within a hair of agreeing to a contractor putting my name in as chief of party for a new economic development initiative in Indonesia (they didn't get it in any event), but backed out because of security concerns (I have kids, and damnyankees are not overly well-loved in Indonesia in the current situation I'm afraid).

Yes, I know that the bigots here can be nasty [especially after the Bali bomb]. But don't worry. If you seek natural environments, try East Kalimantan (East Borneo). The province is on the right track, led by a resourceful leader and managed properly. The people there are not gaijin-haters like the fundamnetalists in Java.

Anyway what's ypur company/institution's name? What project did you sign and abandon later?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Andya Primanda:
Anyway what's ypur company/institution's name? What project did you sign and abandon later?

---

The company that wanted me to work for them is called Management Systems International - which is NOT the company I currently work for. I didn't actually sign with them - they tried to recruit me as in-country program director for a USAID-funded local governance/local economic development initiative (IOW, they wanted to use my name in their bid) in Indonesia. Since they didn't get the contract, it's probably just as well I told them "no". 'Course, if I was REALLY egotistical, I could pretend that they didn't get it 'cause I wasn't on board...

You can come study the rats, cockroaches, ants, mosquitos and salamanders in my house, as well as diverse bacteria culture in much of the many restaurants about town. I'd say it's definitely a security risk, although there are some Americans still around.regards,
Mohammad Nor Syamsu

you got SALAMANDERS in your house?If true, then it will be a great discovery, for there are currently no known salamanders native to Indonesia.Anyway did you check if they're really salamanders? An easy way is to check for their vomer teeth (teeth on their mouth palate). Put your finger into their mouth and try to feel their palate. If you find teeth there, then they are salamanders.

1. 5
2. 2
3. 3
(Hi-Tech)
4. 2
5. 4
Software Support (QA)
6. 1

------------------
LogicaLunatic
http://www.objectivity.tk[Closed ordered list. --Admin][This message has been edited by Admin, 12-21-2002]

1. I think my country's economy is in good shape (if not the US, please provide name of country).A: 4, good thing though that 43 is going to give even more tax breaks to the rich and corporations that are already not paying much taxes as it is.2. I think my country's economy will improve next year.A: 3, it will be slow, but I look to the 3rd quarter for things to start picking up.3. I think my industry is in good shape (please provide industry)A: 3, data communications and hosting. There are so many companies that have cut so deep into their IT departments that if they cut deeped, it's the company going under.4. I think my industry will improve next year.A: 3, as above. They can't keep cutting and maintain the equipment.5. My job has been secure over the past year (please provide job category).A: 2, LAN/WAN/Server/FW engineer. I have several options to go to if one starts to fade.6. I think my job is secure for the next year.A: 1, in fact, I think I'll see even more work next year. Hell, I'm only working 70 hours/week and since I'm a professional.....------------------
When all else fails, check the manual