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Author Topic:   Maths & Probabilities
Thugpreacha
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Posts: 12414
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 1 of 36 (849244)
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


In this topic I want to ask a few questions.

Say I had 100 2nd chance entries in a drawing. The set number of potential 2nd chance entries is already determined, but the actual amount rests on how many people enter them and turn them in.

Do the probabilities change any if I enter them at spaced intervals rather than all at once?

Do the more entries one has increase their probability of winning or is that still the same whether one enters 1 or 100?


Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Tangle, posted 03-01-2019 5:01 PM Thugpreacha has acknowledged this reply
 Message 3 by PaulK, posted 03-01-2019 5:33 PM Thugpreacha has not yet responded
 Message 4 by NosyNed, posted 03-01-2019 11:31 PM Thugpreacha has responded
 Message 5 by Theodoric, posted 03-01-2019 11:56 PM Thugpreacha has acknowledged this reply
 Message 7 by RAZD, posted 03-02-2019 6:47 AM Thugpreacha has responded

  
Tangle
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Posts: 6880
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.1


(1)
Message 2 of 36 (849245)
03-01-2019 5:01 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Thugpreacha
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


Don't do it Phat.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15037
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 3 of 36 (849248)
03-01-2019 5:33 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Thugpreacha
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


I could probably work it out - in the morning - but I’d need to understand how the draw worked. That isn’t clear to me.
This message is a reply to:
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NosyNed
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Posts: 8842
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 4 of 36 (849250)
03-01-2019 11:31 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Thugpreacha
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


More description please
What is a 2nd chance entry?

While I await your answer I'll give some answers based on guesses:

Assuming there is a drawing of slips of paper with names on them. Assume the drawing is open for entries for a month and then closed.

From your "already determined" phrase I assume there are a number printed and made available. Let's say 100,000.

But not all will be used. Let's say 50,000 are filled out and turned in.

Assume the slips are drawn at totally randomly after being well mixed.

The odds of any one being drawn are now 1/50,000. It doesn't matter if it was put in first, in the middle or last so spacing makes no difference.

If you enter 100 out of the 50,000 your odds are now 100/50,000 instead of 1/50,000.

However, let's say each entry costs you $1. And the prize is $20,000.
That means that before the draw each ticket is worth 20,000/50,000 or 40 cents. That means on average you will lose 60 cents each time you buy a ticket.
If you buy 100 tickets you are most likely to lose 60 dollars instead of 60 cents.

That is all before the draw. At the moment of the draw 1 ticket becomes worth $20,000 and all others are zero. The average is still 40 cents each.

Before the draw you are buying 4 dimes for one dollar. If you think that is a good idea or can afford to make that deal once or 100 times then go for it. But be very clear: You are buying 4 dimes for one dollar!


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Theodoric
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Posts: 6264
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 5 of 36 (849251)
03-01-2019 11:56 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Thugpreacha
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


Gambling of any sort is a loser. The odds on any type of gambling are not worth the cost. If it was worth it they wouldn't call it gambling. They would call it winning.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
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PaulK
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Posts: 15037
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 6 of 36 (849253)
03-02-2019 4:01 AM


General thoughts
All commercial gambling is designed to bring in more money than it pays out. Unless there is a way to take advantage of the systems the odds are against you. In State Lotteries there is no legal way to take advantage of the system. Count any money you put into that as part of your entertainment budget and count it as spent.

In a typical second chance drawing you’ve already paid for the ticket so unless there is some extra charge or expense it probably makes sense to go for it. If there are additional charges or expenses you should pay them out of your gambling budget - instead of using it to buy more tickets. Whether that is a less bad use of the money I couldn’t say without knowing a whole lot more.

The best way to play the system, on the other hand, depends on the system. And that varies.

I can’t imagine the probabilities changing if tickets are entered at spaced intervals unless there are multiple draws.

Entering 100 tickets should improve the odds (assuming the draw is from the tickets).


    
RAZD
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Posts: 19869
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 7 of 36 (849254)
03-02-2019 6:47 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Thugpreacha
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


Gambling again Phat?

Dangerous.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
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JonF
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Posts: 4857
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 8 of 36 (849256)
03-02-2019 9:14 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by Theodoric
03-01-2019 11:56 PM


Gambling could be set up so that the expected winnings exceed the price of admission.

Nobody's going to do that, but it could be done. It's not gambling per se that's a losing proposition, it's the payout system.


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NosyNed
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Posts: 8842
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 9 of 36 (849258)
03-02-2019 10:42 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by JonF
03-02-2019 9:14 AM


Still Gambling
It's not gambling per se that's a losing proposition, it's the payout system.

It could easily still be a gambling with a more than 100 % expected value to a "ticket".

Referring back to my example: let's say someone donates $40,000 additional to the pot - perhaps to encourage more tickets to be turned in. To keep the math simple let's say that didn't work and 50,000 tickets are still entered.

The payout is now $60,000 so the expected value of a ticket is now $1.20 which you buy for a dollar. By the raw statistics the ticket is now worth more than you pay and buying more makes sense. But most can't buy all $50,000 entries.

So if you buy 100 tickets for $100. Your statistical payout is $120. But only one ticket will win so the mostly occurrence is that you lose the entire $120 dollars. In fact, it's still almost guaranteed.


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Coragyps
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Posts: 5389
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 4.0


(1)
Message 10 of 36 (849262)
03-02-2019 2:32 PM


My son has worked in a casino for quite a few years now. He has an interesting outlook on the folks his organization calls “platinum players” - as he knows those are the folks that keep him in groceries....
    
Thugpreacha
Member
Posts: 12414
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 11 of 36 (849263)
03-02-2019 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by RAZD
03-02-2019 6:47 AM


Gambling again Phat?
Not really. I pick up the losing tickets out of the trash and turn them in online at the 2nd chance drawing. It does not cost me anything.

I know better than to base my hopes for retirement on gambling.

Then again, I sometimes wish that God would improve my odds.


Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by RAZD, posted 03-02-2019 6:47 AM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by RAZD, posted 03-03-2019 11:32 AM Thugpreacha has not yet responded

  
Thugpreacha
Member
Posts: 12414
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


(1)
Message 12 of 36 (849264)
03-02-2019 3:17 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by NosyNed
03-01-2019 11:31 PM


Re: More description please
NN writes:

What is a 2nd chance entry?


Bonus Draws
quote:
Scratch Bonus Draws give you a second chance to win. Only non-winning Scratch tickets are eligible for entry based on each Bonus Draw’s requirements.
There is a wide variety of Scratch Bonus Draws available so be sure to check often. Simply locate the 22-digit number under the scratch-off coating and enter it into the Lottery’s website or scan the barcode on the ticket using the Colorado Lottery’s mobile app.

I know I know...this is all a waste of time. I know better! Its that damn brain pattern. The pre-frontal lobe is overstressing again, now that I have bills and my union might strike.


Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by NosyNed, posted 03-01-2019 11:31 PM NosyNed has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by NosyNed, posted 03-02-2019 9:03 PM Thugpreacha has responded

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8842
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 13 of 36 (849275)
03-02-2019 9:03 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by Thugpreacha
03-02-2019 3:17 PM


Expected Value per hour
So these don't cost any cash outlay.

How much is the prize on average and how many tickets are turned in on average?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by Thugpreacha, posted 03-02-2019 3:17 PM Thugpreacha has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by Thugpreacha, posted 03-03-2019 3:05 AM NosyNed has responded

  
Thugpreacha
Member
Posts: 12414
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 14 of 36 (849276)
03-03-2019 3:05 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by NosyNed
03-02-2019 9:03 PM


Re: Expected Value per hour
tHE PRIZE AVERAGES $500,000.00 AND THE USUAL AMOUNT OF TICKETS TURNED IN IS AROUND 230,000

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by NosyNed, posted 03-02-2019 9:03 PM NosyNed has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by NosyNed, posted 03-03-2019 11:51 AM Thugpreacha has responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19869
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 15 of 36 (849279)
03-03-2019 11:32 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by Thugpreacha
03-02-2019 3:08 PM


I know better than to base my hopes for retirement on gambling.

Good to know, but I worry that this is gateway behavior.

Enter


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Thugpreacha, posted 03-02-2019 3:08 PM Thugpreacha has not yet responded

  
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