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Author Topic:   Boom and bust economies - Presidential and Congressional influences
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3809
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001


Message 1 of 5 (868280)
12-10-2019 1:41 AM


This topic is a spin-off, based on this JonF message 3762:

JonF writes:

Obama saved the economy from the Bush catastrophe and left Trump a healthy and growing economy.

Trump has managed to continue at roughly the same pace.

That's GDP growth 1990-2018. 2019 numbers are about the same as 2018. The big negative is the beginning of the Obama administration.

Note how Clinton did way better than Trump,and Trump is doing about the same as Obama but a little worse.

The stock market is pretty good. Unemployment is very low. Job creation is less than under Obama.. Farmers are going bankrupt in record numbers. None of the alleged benefits of Trump's tax cut happened, all of the detriments did. The deficit and debt have exploded. GDP growth is nowhere near what Trump promised and compares poorly to GDP growth under Obama.

In the past I've stated that the President gets too much credit for a bad economy, and too much blame for a good economy. Percy agreed with me on that. Although Trump (with whatever aid of the Congress) seems to be overachieving on the amount of bad he can do.

We seem to go through cycles of boom and bust. Everyone loves a good economic bubble, until it pops.

Not claiming any great expertise, but I think that cycle runs largely independent of government (Presidential and Congressional) influences. Not that they can't and don't have influences.

I argue that the Bush 2 era economic bust was a natural descendant of the Clinton era boom, and what had happened pre-Clinton era. As such, the bust was not so much what happened during the Bush 2 era, rather what happened during the Clinton era. In other words, what is needed to avoid the bust is to restrain what's is causing the preceding boom to get out of control.

There's the discussion launching point.

Moose


Professor, geology, Whatsamatta U
Evolution - Changes in the environment, caused by the interactions of the components of the environment.

"Do not meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer." - Bruce Graham

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." - John Kenneth Galbraith

"Yesterday on Fox News, commentator Glenn Beck said that he believes President Obama is a racist. To be fair, every time you watch Glenn Beck, it does get a little easier to hate white people." - Conan O'Brien

"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable." - John Kenneth Galbraith

It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn't know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman (as stolen from Chiroptera's signature)

"I know a little about a lot of things, and a lot about a few things, but I'm highly ignorant about everything." - Moose


Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by dwise1, posted 12-10-2019 2:40 AM Minnemooseus has not yet responded
 Message 3 by Hyroglyphx, posted 12-10-2019 10:53 AM Minnemooseus has responded

  
dwise1
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Posts: 4047
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 2 of 5 (868281)
12-10-2019 2:40 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Minnemooseus
12-10-2019 1:41 AM


Boom Bust Boom
Terry Jones of Monty Python did an excellent documentary on this topic in 2015: "Boom Bust Boom" (sorry, but when you search for it in your streaming device, that's what'll get you there). I saw it on NetFlix where, alas, it no longer is. But according to my RokuSearch it's available on Tubi (for free) as well as on Amazon Prime (with subscription) plus a few other channels for rent.

Terry Jones goes through some classic bubbles in history, starting with the tulip bubble. Along the way we hear from some dead economists (via puppets).

Here's the basic story. Government/Market does something ****** which creates a bubble. Part of the recovery from that bust is to enact new laws to protect us from that really ****** stuff that causes that crash. Not even a decade later, they start getting rid of those protective laws because "we know better now" (HINT: no, we don't).

Going into the Great Depression after that spectacular Market Crash, the Glass–Steagall legislation, of 1932 was supposed to protect us from the very bad bank practices that led to the 1929 Crash that led to the Great Depression. Thinking that "we know better by now", we finally got rid of Glass–Steagall around 1999, which some have blamed the 2008 crash on. So as part of that recovery effort, a number of laws were passed and enacted to keep that from ever happening again. After only half a decade, those laws have all been scrapped since "we know better now."


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Minnemooseus, posted 12-10-2019 1:41 AM Minnemooseus has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by Percy, posted 12-12-2019 10:01 AM dwise1 has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5982
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 3 of 5 (868291)
12-10-2019 10:53 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Minnemooseus
12-10-2019 1:41 AM


In the past I've stated that the President gets too much credit for a bad economy, and too much blame for a good economy.

Completely agree. The economy is so dependent upon different sectors that to attribute total success or total failure to one individual (POTUS) is overstating their power. Its true that presidents can effect the economy by implementing good or bad policies, but to the extent that they cause boom or bust cycles is lacking.

For instance, the recent tariff war with China and other countries certainly has a negative impact on the world economy, but booms and busts are definitely going to happen regardless. Just about any economist will agree that it is an inevitable reality.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Minnemooseus, posted 12-10-2019 1:41 AM Minnemooseus has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Minnemooseus, posted 12-10-2019 8:58 PM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3809
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001


(2)
Message 4 of 5 (868341)
12-10-2019 8:58 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Hyroglyphx
12-10-2019 10:53 AM


In the past I've stated that the President gets too much credit for a bad economy, and too much blame for a good economy.

I guess it still sort of made sense, but I did mean to phase it as "In the past I've stated that the President gets too much credit for a good economy, and too much blame for a bad economy.

Moose


This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Hyroglyphx, posted 12-10-2019 10:53 AM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19611
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 5 of 5 (868439)
12-12-2019 10:01 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by dwise1
12-10-2019 2:40 AM


Re: Boom Bust Boom
dwise1 writes:

Terry Jones of Monty Python did an excellent documentary on this topic in 2015: "Boom Bust Boom" (sorry, but when you search for it in your streaming device, that's what'll get you there). I saw it on NetFlix where, alas, it no longer is. But according to my RokuSearch it's available on Tubi (for free) as well as on Amazon Prime (with subscription) plus a few other channels for rent.

For those who've got Prime here's the link - if you're already signed in you'll go straight to the video (after an ad of course): Boom Bust Boom

It's an hour long, can't watch it right now.

The laws enacted to prevent economic disturbances are continuously lobbied against by the rich and get scrapped so they can take advantage of whatever holes are opened to benefit themselves at the ultimate cost to the economy. The busts don't hurt them because they've already got theirs, and they know they'll eventually erode and destroy any new laws enacted so they can repeat the cycle. The loss of Glass–Steagall was tragic.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by dwise1, posted 12-10-2019 2:40 AM dwise1 has not yet responded

  
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