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Author Topic:   2020 Economic Adjustment: How Severe?
Phat
Member
Posts: 14284
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 1 of 32 (873886)
03-20-2020 9:09 PM


An appropriate opening might be Percys post: Message 5506

I've done a lot of reading. I go to different sources and my conclusions regarding the news-at-large are the result of evaluating the truth and liklihood of each story I read.

here are a few recent ones that caught my eye: Dow's Dive Erases All Gains Under Trump


The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 needed more than three months to infect 100,000 people worldwide, most of them in China. But the number of cases has surged since hitting that milestone earlier this month, with health agencies reporting another 100,000 people becoming infected in just 12 days, the World Health Organization said Friday.

Thus, the obvious trigger for the overdue correction in the markets has been and will continue to be the pandemic. How bad will this be?
The grocery store that I work at often looks like this after a long day:

The economy will take a bigger hit then it did in 2007-2008. It will likely take ten years to get out of this mess.

This last article summarizes the problem:
U.S. Economic Slowdown In Coming Months Expected To Be Worst On Record

quote:
The U.S. economy has never hit the brakes quite like this before.

While the course of the coronavirus pandemic is unpredictable, forecasters are using their economic models and making some educated guesses about just how bad the damage will be. The forecasts are not pretty:

  • Oxford Economics expects the U.S. economy to shrink at an annual rate of 12% between April and June.

  • JPMorgan Chase sees a second-quarter contraction of 14%.

  • Goldman Sachs warns of a jaw-dropping 24%.

    By comparison, during the worst quarter of the Great Recession in late 2008, the economy shrank by 8.4%. Quarterly records go only as far back as the 1940s, after the Great Depression.



  • “The only way I know to drive out evil from the country is by the constructive method of filling it with good.”Calvin Coolidge
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
    “As the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom, so the denial of God is the height of foolishness.”-RC Sproul, Essential Truths of the Christian Faith

    - You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.
    Anne Lamott
    Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.~Andre Gide

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    jar
    Member
    Posts: 32723
    From: Texas!!
    Joined: 04-20-2004
    Member Rating: 1.7


    Message 2 of 32 (873888)
    03-20-2020 9:43 PM


    Some Basics
    These are the facts from the Great Depression:

    The significant column is the percentage of the workforce unemployed.

    The reported estimate made before the latest mandatory workforce closures was that in this case unemployment might reach 20%. Since the current non-agriculture workforce today is 150,000,000 or so that would mean 30,000,000 unemployed.

    Of course, there was an option available in 1941 that might not be practical today but was proven to turn a Depression into the longest, strongest prosperity cycle ever seen.


    My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 14284
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.1


    Message 3 of 32 (873898)
    03-21-2020 3:37 AM
    Reply to: Message 2 by jar
    03-20-2020 9:43 PM


    Re: Some Basics
    Im really really pissed! I predicted a market correction in 2020, but I had no idea it would potentially be this bad! Money is literally evaporating!

    Here’s a breakdown of the Fed’s rescue programs to keep credit flowing during the pandemic

    quote:
    Fed throws kitchen sink at crisis, but market wants more

    “The only way I know to drive out evil from the country is by the constructive method of filling it with good.”Calvin Coolidge
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
    “As the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom, so the denial of God is the height of foolishness.”-RC Sproul, Essential Truths of the Christian Faith

    - You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.
    Anne Lamott
    Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.~Andre Gide

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 2 by jar, posted 03-20-2020 9:43 PM jar has not yet responded

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    frako
    Member
    Posts: 2923
    From: slovenija
    Joined: 09-04-2010


    (3)
    Message 4 of 32 (873904)
    03-21-2020 6:34 AM
    Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
    03-20-2020 9:09 PM


    How bad will this be?

    Well given trumps desire to undo all of obamas accomplishements the dow should stop droping at about 7000 points.


    Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

    What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


    This message is a reply to:
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    coffee_addict
    Member (Idle past 2 days)
    Posts: 3627
    From: Chicago
    Joined: 03-29-2004


    Message 5 of 32 (873913)
    03-21-2020 9:35 AM
    Reply to: Message 4 by frako
    03-21-2020 6:34 AM


    Speaking of this, and not meaning to politicize this, Obama had sars, h1n1, and several other major diseases and the economy was more than fine. Trump got 1 and everything falls apart.

    If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

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    Chiroptera
    Inactive Member


    Message 6 of 32 (873922)
    03-21-2020 11:07 AM


    How can we be better prepared for the next one?
    I think it's important that we learn what we can from this incident so we can be better prepared for the next time. Here are some ideas I have.


    • Have an early warning/monitoring system in place.

      Probably something graded so that the public can be warned ahead of time before drastic measures need to be taken.

    • Have a "switch" that allows the President to declare an emergency and shut things down.

      A lot of the problems we're seeing is that states and localities are locking down after outbreaks have occurred and are spreading. We need to take action to prevent the spread in the first place.

      Whatever authority the President has or can be given by Congress to shut down non-essential travel and other services, he should use them once the warning system reaches the critical level.

      What authority the President doesn't have, the appropriate messages would be sent to the state governors so they can take the appropriate response (or be held accountable if they don't).

    • It looks like we should be prepared for a minimum two month lockdown. Maybe less if things end up managed properly, but be prepared for at least two months.

      I'm mostly thinking of the economic impact. Once this emergency is declared, a guaranteed basic income plan for individuals is immediately put into action, and maybe a similar program for small businesses.

      If factories are shutdown, then stockpiled supplies are released to the public.

    There are details that would need to be worked out. Maybe other people would have some very different ideas to suggest.

    Edited by Chiroptera, : Edited for clarity.


    But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

      
    Diomedes
    Member
    Posts: 957
    From: Central Florida, USA
    Joined: 09-13-2013


    (1)
    Message 7 of 32 (873929)
    03-21-2020 12:05 PM
    Reply to: Message 3 by Phat
    03-21-2020 3:37 AM


    Re: Some Basics
    Im really really pissed! I predicted a market correction in 2020, but I had no idea it would potentially be this bad! Money is literally evaporating!

    The worst thing you can do at this stage is sell into the panic. There have been numerous corrections in this country's history and in every instance, we have recovered. Those that sold into the fear end up lagging far behind those that just chose to ride things out. Every economic analysis confirms that. And don't attempt to try to time the market. That never works.

    The key strategy is to have an emergency fund available for these types of situations. Most financial experts recommend at least a three month fund to accommodate living expenses in that timeframe. Not always a viable option for low income workers. But even a little bit extra in the bank helps.

    Regarding the Fed, they actually have pissed me off for the past several years. The decision to lower interest rates last year was clearly political to prop up the market. It was completely un-necessary for an economy with historically low unemployment and stock market highs. Now, we have far less maneuvering room for this downturn. Also not sure why they opted to drop rates to zero so fast. They could have been more measured. Their decision to do so just exacerbated the panic.


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    LamarkNewAge
    Member
    Posts: 1717
    Joined: 12-22-2015


    Message 8 of 32 (873957)
    03-21-2020 10:33 PM


    The Green New Deal would cover the unemployed and be productive
    But that is in normal times.

    The driver for this depression is that people have to stay home to better survive the virus that our government and media failed to prepare for while pushing the imaginary threats of Arab terrorists and Russian scares.

    The only thing that can work is a temporary Universal Basic Income with a temporary VALUE ADDED TAX.

    Until there is a vaccine.Once there is a vaccine, then end the VAT immediately and phase out the UBI over 3 to 6 months.

    The UBI will require a rebate scheme to prevent current employed and retired people from the real destruction of their purchasing power. I hate sales and VATS taxes like you do not know, but we need it in this type of emergency so we can partially fund the UBI in a quick synchronicity. Quick and simple so the national debt is held somewhat out of stratospheric levels.


      
    Diomedes
    Member
    Posts: 957
    From: Central Florida, USA
    Joined: 09-13-2013


    Message 9 of 32 (873993)
    03-23-2020 9:15 AM


    Some predictions on economic contraction
    Yahoo had an article that showcased some of the estimates from the banking sector as to how much the economy will contract in the coming months:

    'Unrecognizable': Experts warn of historic collapse in economic activity

    This is USA specific, but I suspect it will be echoed in other areas of the globe.

    Hard to say exactly how this will play out because its not exactly akin to normal recessions where supply and demand naturally adjust themselves after a period of growth. This is more of a mandatory drop in demand due to quarantine measures.

    The other question mark is how long the situation with Covid-19 will last. If we peak in late April to early May, as the predictions indicate, that may reduce the damage downstream. Time will tell.


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    RAZD
    Member
    Posts: 20714
    From: the other end of the sidewalk
    Joined: 03-14-2004


    (1)
    Message 10 of 32 (874011)
    03-23-2020 3:23 PM
    Reply to: Message 9 by Diomedes
    03-23-2020 9:15 AM


    Re: Some predictions on economic contraction
    Yahoo had an article that showcased some of the estimates from the banking sector as to how much the economy will contract in the coming months:

    We should also worry about agriculture immigrant workers not getting to the fields because Trumpy closed the embassies that process the temporary work permits (green cards). Food supply could crash.


    we are limited in our ability to understand
    by our ability to understand
    Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
    ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
    to share.


    Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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    RAZD
    Member
    Posts: 20714
    From: the other end of the sidewalk
    Joined: 03-14-2004


    (1)
    Message 11 of 32 (874012)
    03-23-2020 3:26 PM
    Reply to: Message 9 by Diomedes
    03-23-2020 9:15 AM


    the economy depends on workers, not banks
    This is also proof that the economy depends on workers, not on banks and imaginary money stocks.

    The last depression was relieved by infusing money into the workers.

    Enjoy


    we are limited in our ability to understand
    by our ability to understand
    Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
    ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
    to share.


    Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 14284
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.1


    Message 12 of 32 (874046)
    03-24-2020 1:19 AM
    Reply to: Message 2 by jar
    03-20-2020 9:43 PM


    Re: Some Basics

    I fear tough times. Its not fair to people like me. But it must be God's will. Either that or we caused it, as jar suggests.


    “The only way I know to drive out evil from the country is by the constructive method of filling it with good.”Calvin Coolidge
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
    “As the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom, so the denial of God is the height of foolishness.”-RC Sproul, Essential Truths of the Christian Faith

    - You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.
    Anne Lamott
    Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.~Andre Gide

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 2 by jar, posted 03-20-2020 9:43 PM jar has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 13 by Diomedes, posted 03-24-2020 9:09 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply
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    Diomedes
    Member
    Posts: 957
    From: Central Florida, USA
    Joined: 09-13-2013


    (1)
    Message 13 of 32 (874053)
    03-24-2020 9:09 AM
    Reply to: Message 12 by Phat
    03-24-2020 1:19 AM


    Re: Some Basics
    I fear tough times. Its not fair to people like me.

    It's likely not fair to most. But it is what it is and we have to contend with it. For now, the concerns should be focused on the health and safety of people. The economic damage from this won't be pleasant. But stock markets recover. Not all people have the same luxury.

    But it must be God's will. Either that or we caused it, as jar suggests.

    I would concur with jar. As the famous quote goes:

    "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings."

    But take solace in the fact that it is the 21st century and modern medicine is extremely advanced. We have ventilators, vaccines, anti-viral medications, rapid communication for collaboration and governments that, more or less, can take action to mitigate problems.

    As Tangle likes to say "this too, shall pass".


    This message is a reply to:
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    jar
    Member
    Posts: 32723
    From: Texas!!
    Joined: 04-20-2004
    Member Rating: 1.7


    (1)
    Message 14 of 32 (874055)
    03-24-2020 9:25 AM
    Reply to: Message 12 by Phat
    03-24-2020 1:19 AM


    Re: Some Basics
    Worry not Phat. Our brilliant Lt Gov wants to end social separation and let everybody just get back to work. So does il Donaldo. So within a week or so you will be back surrounded by happy smiling carriers all day.

    They say that Mary was a great cook and in demand. She had absolutely no problem finding her next position after tragically losing the last ones.


    My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

    This message is a reply to:
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    jar
    Member
    Posts: 32723
    From: Texas!!
    Joined: 04-20-2004
    Member Rating: 1.7


    (2)
    Message 15 of 32 (874060)
    03-24-2020 11:10 AM


    The adjustment.
    Fortunately those nations like Japan and Singapore and South Korea and China that took total testing and draconian measures early will most likely also see the quickest and most robust rebound in their economies. Also international corporations with manufacturing capabilities in China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea will likely see a turn around and improvement quicker than those whose manufacturing base is in the EU or the US.

    My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

      
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