The scientific method is based on a logical fallacy

I'm going to reveal science's dirty little secret. The scientific method is based on a logical fallacy.In the thread entitled Creationism IS a 'Cult'ural Movement!, schrafinator quotes wiki's description of the scientific method, a passable description for my purposes. One of the key defining characteristics of the scientific method is prediction. The more predictions that a scientific theory makes that are borne out, the more reliable the theory is.There is a logical fallacy called affirming the consequence. It goes like this:Premise 1 If A, then B
Premise 2 B.
Conclusion Therefore A.An example of this form would be the following:If it's raining then the roof is wet.
The roof is wet.
Therefore it's raining.This fallacy is central to the scientific method. Hypotheses are supported by arguments of this exact form.If there is gravity then when I drop this ball it will fall.
A dropped ball is observed to fall.
Therefore there is gravity.Just thought I'd give the creos a little ammunition for their arguments since this place seems to have gotten a bit slow lately.Cheers!

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Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin FranklinWe see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

Are you sure this is a correct example of the scientific method: Shouldn't it be something more like this: You can test this prediction.In other words, this may not be a correct reduction of the scientific method to logic: I think what you've actually attempted to address is the logic for reasoning backward to original causes, and you're absolutely right that the logic you've provided is false, but it would be a poor scientist who forgot that any effect can have more than one cause. Putting it in terms of your rain analogy, there's more than one way for a roof to get wet, and everyone understands that rain is only a likely candidate, not an unavoidable conclusion.

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--	Percy
	EvC Forum Director

The problem I describe comes in the testing of the prediction. As you describe it, the prediction about rain making the roof wet can be directly observed, and thus (apparently) confirmed. However, not all predictions can be directly observed in this way. Take another example:Observation: Marsupials are the dominant form of mammalian life in Australia, but relatively rare elsewhere in the world.
Hypothesis: Marsupials became isolated on Australia from other forms of mammalian life when the land masses drifted apart.
Prediction: Fossilized marsupials will be found on Antarctica.The logical structure of this prediction and its confirmation is as follows:If marsupials became isolated on Australia from other forms of mammalian life when the land masses drifted apart, then fossilized marsupials will be found on Antarctica.Fossilized marsupials have been found on Antarctica.This was trumpeted as confirmation of the hypothesis. However, because we cannot go back in time and directly observe the migration, we are forced to rely on affirming the consequence for the force of the argument.

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Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin FranklinWe see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

The logic *and* the argument you follow in Message 3 has nothing to do with what you offered in Message 1.I don't mind promoting this as is, it's an interesting topic. Sometimes the best way to think something through is by having a discussion about it. Let me know what you want to do.

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--	Percy
	EvC Forum Director

I'm quite interested to see what other people here do with this. Is it Science? is where I suppose it should go.

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Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin FranklinWe see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

Thread copied to the The scientific method is based on a logical fallacy thread in the Is It Science? forum, this copy of the thread has been closed.