What is a scientific prediction?
wikipedia writes:
In a scientific context, a prediction is a rigorous (often quantitative) statement forecasting what will happen under specific conditions, typically expressed in the form If A is true, then B will also be true. The scientific method is built on testing assertions which are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies.
In another thread, discussion about what makes a prediction cropped up. You can see the origins of this thread
here.
Part of science is prediction. A scientific theory should make predictions on the nature of the evidence that will be found. Here is an example of a prediction that is relevant to the debate:
"It will be determined to what extent the phylogenetic tree, as derived from molecular data in complete independence from the results of organismal biology, coincides with the phylogenetic tree constructed on the basis of organismal biology. If the two phylogenetic trees are mostly in agreement with respect to the topology of branching, the best available single proof of the reality of macro-evolution would be furnished. Indeed, only the theory of evolution, combined with the realization that events at any supramolecular level are consistent with molecular events, could reasonably account for such a congruence"
Emile Zuckerkandl and Linus Pauling, 1965
To translate. If ToE is true and if Evolution happened then we should see congruence. The theory predicts this congruence, before the congruence is discovered. This is a prediction, we know that classifying organsisms based on cladistics produces basically the same tree as one done using the molecular evidence; there is no reason outside of the ToE why the data is congruent like this.
Faith's response to this, in order to present a contra-opinion was
This is not like REAL science of the sort Robin gave an example of where when something is predicted to happen based on a particular theory it actually does or doesn't happen and you can know for sure from the result that the theory was correct or not.
I'd like to explore this. I guess the question is, what is the power of prediction? When is a prediction the result of real science, and when is it not? Are some predictions better than others? I suspect the specificness of the prediction, and the number of possible ways the data could be go towards some kind of metric to judge how confirming a prediction is of a theory.
Naturally, the focus is specifically in comparing 'real' scientific predictions with ToEs predictions to see if ToE is 'real' science.
Is it Science?(?)/Bio Evo? Probably the former I'd think.
This message has been edited by Modulous, Thu, 09-March-2006 07:12 PM
™ Version 4.2
