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Author Topic:   Doin' It Again - Hurricane Rita
Silent H
Member (Idle past 3926 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 31 of 43 (245916)
09-23-2005 10:22 AM
Reply to: Message 30 by Yaro
09-23-2005 9:18 AM


I have. It's a good thread. My comment was made ina tounge and cheek manner

Whoops, sorry. Apparently I've lost my humor on this topic recently, as I've seen too many people who mean it.

I understand it weather conditions are getting more severe as a result of climate change. Weather or not these particular hurricanes are a result, probably not.

Well it is clear that global temps are increasing, and sea temps as well, which is more than likely effecting weather to some degree. The study RAZD provided a link to was not clear enough to show much. Yes, storm intensity had increased in general, but number of storms in total, and intensity of the largest storms had not changed.

In any event, the smallest changes have specifically been within the area of the gulf, where both the latest storms have been. There really doesn't seem to be much connection at all... if any.

You article was interesting, and typical of what I have been seeing in media and what I find dismaying. It acts all positive, and even has a quote from Landsea saying...

"This is the first article that has a smoking gun between global warming and hurricane activity," he told New Scientist.

Only to put the more important disclaimer separate from this and near the end of the article which reads...

But Landsea says the unadjusted figures show no overall trend, raising doubts over whether Emanuel's model is making the right corrections. Although winds from that period looked too low in the past, Landsea says that wind estimates may actually have been too low in the 1970s through to the early 1990s.

Neither study considered changes in rainfall, which causes flooding that has been responsible for many deaths and damage in recent storms.

This mirrors a CNN article up right now trying to hype the dubious connection...

A leading British scientist said on Friday the growing ferocity of hurricanes hitting the United States was very probably caused by global warming and criticized what he termed U.S. "climate loonies" over the issue.

Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution which advises the government, made what the Independent newspaper said was a thinly disguised attack on the stance of U.S. President George W. Bush's administration.

"The increased intensity of these kinds of extreme storms is very likely to be due to global warming," Lawton told the newspaper in an interview.

"If this makes the climate loonies in the States realize we've got a problem, some good will come out of a truly awful situation," said Lawton.

Ah yes, name calling and prosyletizing. I'm sure everyone would feel different about this guy and what he said, if you changed his title to archbishop and his statement to "heathen loonies".

After fronting all of this guys message, and detailing studies connecting temps to storms in general, the real facts regarding Katrina and Rita come at the end of the article...

Other leading scientists agree the Atlantic Basin and Gulf Coast regions are being battered by a severe hurricane phase that could persist for another 20 years or more. But they believe that a natural environmental cycle is responsible rather than any human-induced change, AP says.

This method of reporting is pure Fox, but I am seeing it gaining popularity everywhere. Lead with the hype, then return to sanity later as the "other side" is given a chance to voice their opinions, as if they are equal and debatable.

Oh and one other thing...

"Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun," he said.

I am getting sick and tired of all this smoking gun crap. If someone has the power to ban that phrase, please do so. Discussions of data would be better without it.


holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)
This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by Phat, posted 09-23-2005 4:33 PM Silent H has not yet responded

    
Phat
Member
Posts: 12246
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 32 of 43 (245985)
09-23-2005 4:33 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by Silent H
09-23-2005 10:22 AM


Costs---how can this country afford them?
To all of you statisticians out there, what are the latest forecasted costs associated with the 2005 Hurricane season (barely half over)?

I had heard that Katrina alone was approaching anywhere form 60-200 billion dollars! Now, most money will go to fix Rita and the oil industry first, however!


This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by Silent H, posted 09-23-2005 10:22 AM Silent H has not yet responded

  
truthlover
Member (Idle past 2166 days)
Posts: 1548
From: Selmer, TN
Joined: 02-12-2003


Message 33 of 43 (245995)
09-23-2005 4:52 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by crashfrog
09-23-2005 8:16 AM


Why, nothing at all, I imagine. Or else they'll blame the refugees, like last time.

I get newsletters from at least one of those types of groups. Since at least one dike in New Orleans is already overflowing again, they're not having to change much, but the shift is not to the refugees (someone's blaming the refugees?). They're simply calling it a judgment on the US going all the way back to 9/11.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by crashfrog, posted 09-23-2005 8:16 AM crashfrog has not yet responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 12246
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 34 of 43 (246040)
09-23-2005 10:43 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by jar
09-21-2005 5:54 PM


Re: Nothing to worry about. Don't blow it out of proportion.
Jar, as I sit watching Hurricane Rita coverage at 8:42 p.m. Mountain time, I wonder how close you are to it. As I see your name online, can you give us an update?
This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 09-21-2005 5:54 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 35 by jar, posted 09-23-2005 10:48 PM Phat has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 30935
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 35 of 43 (246041)
09-23-2005 10:48 PM
Reply to: Message 34 by Phat
09-23-2005 10:43 PM


Re: Nothing to worry about. Don't blow it out of proportion.
I'm about 200+ miles south of Houston. No rain in the forcast. Today was 104. Tomorrow I will be helping shoot a wedding. Expected temp 102+.


Aslan is not a Tame Lion
This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by Phat, posted 09-23-2005 10:43 PM Phat has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 36 by Phat, posted 09-23-2005 10:52 PM jar has not yet responded

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 12246
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 36 of 43 (246044)
09-23-2005 10:52 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by jar
09-23-2005 10:48 PM


Re: Nothing to worry about. Don't blow it out of proportion.
Good for you, at least! If I lived near the coast, I would have a backup place to stay somewhere else in the U.S. if I could afford it (or if my in-laws would have me! :) ) They are dramatizing this hurricane quite a bit, but I don't know how the government is gonna pay for five-ten more hurricane years even half this bad!

Looks like this one is gonna stall out and dump a load of rain!


This message is a reply to:
 Message 35 by jar, posted 09-23-2005 10:48 PM jar has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19815
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 37 of 43 (246146)
09-24-2005 4:48 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by RAZD
09-21-2005 7:23 PM


Coming back for more?
Has anybody noticed this?

AccuWeather, Rita's Projected Path (click)

Maybe not strong winds, but lots of rain?


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by RAZD, posted 09-21-2005 7:23 PM RAZD has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 38 by berberry, posted 09-24-2005 6:12 PM RAZD has responded

  
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 38 of 43 (246153)
09-24-2005 6:12 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by RAZD
09-24-2005 4:48 PM


Re: Coming back for more?
I've noticed, dammit!


"I think younger workers first of all, younger workers have been promised benefits the government promises that have been promised, benefits that we can't keep. That's just the way it is." George W. Bush, May 4, 2005
This message is a reply to:
 Message 37 by RAZD, posted 09-24-2005 4:48 PM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 39 by RAZD, posted 09-24-2005 7:45 PM berberry has responded
 Message 40 by RAZD, posted 09-24-2005 11:09 PM berberry has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19815
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 39 of 43 (246163)
09-24-2005 7:45 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by berberry
09-24-2005 6:12 PM


Re: Coming back for more?
and of course if it swings a little wide you get it full bore?

looks to me like those levees get another dose of testing, especially with NO on the full wind side and it pushing waves across the lake?

This message has been edited by RAZD, 09*24*2005 07:46 PM


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 38 by berberry, posted 09-24-2005 6:12 PM berberry has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 41 by berberry, posted 09-25-2005 10:01 PM RAZD has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19815
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 40 of 43 (246194)
09-24-2005 11:09 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by berberry
09-24-2005 6:12 PM


Re: Coming back for more?
Looks like AccuWeather is the only one with this forecast

Weather Underground has
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518.html

As does NOAA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030339.shtml?prob


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 38 by berberry, posted 09-24-2005 6:12 PM berberry has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 42 by crashfrog, posted 09-25-2005 10:19 PM RAZD has responded

  
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 41 of 43 (246402)
09-25-2005 10:01 PM
Reply to: Message 39 by RAZD
09-24-2005 7:45 PM


East vs. West and flooding issues
RAZD write me:

quote:
and of course if it swings a little wide you get it full bore?

Well, we sure got a hell of a lot of rain and storms. The wind wasn't as strong as what we got from Katrina. I think we in Vicksburg have been close enough to both of these recent blows to observe the difference of being on the east vs west sides, even though the difference was distorted by proximity.

With Katrina we were on the west side of a fairly nearby hurricane. We had almost a full day of near-hurricane-force winds which caused lots of damage, but relatively little rain. With Rita, we were on the east side of a more distant storm. Although the winds weren't nearly as violent, the rain was hard and non-stop for hours.

The apartment I live in began to flood early today. A few gallons of water soaked my living room carpet in one corner. Apparently it leaked down from a flower bed directly above (this is a basement apartment). I've spent quite a bit of time today working with a wet-vac, but no damage was done. Believe me, though, it's a little startling to wake up to wet carpet while an intense thunderstorm is raging outside.

I suppose I shouldn't be too concerned about this. Perhaps some more soil needs to be packed into that flower bed, but the rain today came from a direction directly opposite of usual. It was nonstop for so long that I don't really think it's likely that the apartment will flood again, or that it would be any worse than this if it did.


"I think younger workers first of all, younger workers have been promised benefits the government promises that have been promised, benefits that we can't keep. That's just the way it is." George W. Bush, May 4, 2005
This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by RAZD, posted 09-24-2005 7:45 PM RAZD has not yet responded

  
crashfrog
Inactive Member


Message 42 of 43 (246407)
09-25-2005 10:19 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by RAZD
09-24-2005 11:09 PM


Re: Coming back for more?
Uh....

I live in Columbia, MO. Right there in the center of the state. I'm from Minnesota so I know jack about hurricaines and tropical storms.

How concerned should I be that the edge of this thing is barreling down right for where I live? I had heard that it had lost energy really fast, but what am I looking at this week? Cloudy days and rain? Or should I be boarding up windows or something? Nobody else is, I guess.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by RAZD, posted 09-24-2005 11:09 PM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 43 by RAZD, posted 09-26-2005 7:57 AM crashfrog has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19815
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 43 of 43 (246474)
09-26-2005 7:57 AM
Reply to: Message 42 by crashfrog
09-25-2005 10:19 PM


Re: Coming back for more?
it's below tropical storm level, so it should be just a big rainstorm

do watch out for tornadoes - that is the worst threat from these after landfall


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 42 by crashfrog, posted 09-25-2005 10:19 PM crashfrog has not yet responded

  
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