Biggest short term risk area?

I realize that I am looking at things from a US cetric position so I'll say that right up front. I do have friends though who have family members in some of the places discussed so I get input on other perspectives.Right now, where do you think the biggest immediate threat to world peace exists? (And I know contra will say the US but I hope he'll go beyond rhetoric to point out both sides in any assessment).

• Syria/Lebanon
• Pakistan
• Pakistan/India*North Korea
• Indonesia
• Iran
• Big Power Territorial disputes such as the Spratlys
• Taiwan Straits

That's hard to say. IMHO North Korea is too insular and preoccupied with its own internal troubles to be a real threat.India/Pakistan is a biggy because both sides have nuclear weapons. Worse Pakistan is none too stable under civilian rule and India has a religious party (the BJP) which is strongly anti-Muslim which has grown quite powerful in recent years.Indonesia has a huge population but its problems seem to be mainly internal and not likely to be exported or draw in other powers.Taiwan is potentially the biggest threat although it is possible that the growing influence of China on the World economy is such that it is possible that Taiwan's supporters might back down. On the other hand China might make the mistake of wrongly assuming that Taiwan's supporters would back down (as Saddam Hussein assumed over his invasion of Kuwait and Galtieri over his invasion of the Falklands).I'm not sure about Syria/Lebanon - all I know of is intenral violence in Lebanon which, like Indonesia, seems likely to continue.So far as Iran goes I'd judge a U.S. attack on Iran more likely than Iran starting a fight with anyone at this point in time.You haven't mentioned Israel/Palestine which is still one of the biggest issues (not only does it contribute to the hostility of extremist Muslim groups towards the U.S. there is also the whole business of Jerusalem and especially the Temple Mount to consider)Another one that ought to be mentioned is Chechnya, and potentially some of the other former Soviet states. We don't know for sure what weapons were left behind by the Red Army or what has happened to all of them. And as Chechnyans have already engaged in terrorist attacks within Russia there is a potential for that conflict to spill out into the wider world.

My immediate reaction to that question would be inside the brains of most of the human population. I am not being glib. It seems as if there is a rush toward intolerance and violent solutions which is not necessarily centered in any nation, and threatens to destabilize regions all around the world over issues which should be solvable without conflict.But if you want to know which regions have the highest potential to suck the world into conflict then I think it is simply China/Taiwan and Pakistan/India.The rest you mentioned are very isolated and without the inherent power to cross borders. Granted humongous nations like the US could blow them up into larger issues and thus suck the world in, but then I would have to side with it being the US causing the problem and not that region.Israel/Palestine used to have the potential to create large destabilized areas, but with the relative peace between Israel and Egypt, this is less likely to happen. And I should say I am actually getting hopeful about that conflict as Sharon is now doing what he should have been doing years ago. Thankfully Arafat's death has given him the ability to overcome his own ego, or robbed him of a convenient excuse, so some of the most important steps to moving forward are happening.So to reiterate, I think China/Taiwan and Pakistan/India would be the most destabilizing conflicts.

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holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)"...don't believe I'm taken in by stories I have heard, I just read the Daily News and swear by every word.."(Steely Dan)

India and Pakistan is the one that worries me, a lot.

I just saw something in the news a day or two ago...lemme go get it...The U.S. is causing alliances against us to form by our actions. These alliances would perhaps form anyway, but our military dominance makes them necessary. As a thought for thought Biblical literalist, I could see Israel getting involved as well....yet, ironically, it is this fundamentalist mindset...by "Christians" in the U.S. who actually fuels the process and gives rise to the prospects of a self fullfilling prophecy. Jesus always said that His "kingdom was not of this world", yet the combination of our greed for Capitalist dominance, the shared interest in promoting Capitalist ways of life for everyone in the world by SOME of the absolutist mindsets, and basic ignorance by a majority of people...is in fact contributing to the HOTNESS of the hotspots. ANSWER: Within our own minds.

We certainly see economic alliances having an effect upon us.At my workplace we have seen a significant increase in the cost of nearly every one of the products we import from Europe, because the dollar is so weak against the Euro.What is more interesting and disturbing to me is that the majority of the (relatively) wealthy people who frequent our establishment don't have much of a conception of why the prices went up. IOW, they are unaware of the significant economic effect that the creation of the Euro has had upon our economy, at least with these kinds of goods.Europe has united economically to be able to compete head to head with the US, and it is winning the currency war, to be sure.The playing field has been leveled, and my customers are clueless, then kind of annoyed when I explain it.

It's not so much that the Euro is strong but that the US Dollar is weak. The Dollar is weak against the pound and the Canadian Dollar, too. I wonder what the effect on U.S inflation would be if the Chinese allowed the Renminbi to float rather than pegging it to the US Dollar.

Heyyyyyy, wait a second there... I didn't write that, PaulK did.Then you write in answer to Jar's question... When I already wrote... We are in agreement I guess, except for who said what.

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holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)"...don't believe I'm taken in by stories I have heard, I just read the Daily News and swear by every word.."(Steely Dan)

Sorry, Holmes...I guess I was not paying attention.Speaking of inflation, I read once where the value of Gold is artificially depressed but that if Gold were given its true value it would be in the area of $700.00 an oz. Further, the "goldbugs" also say that if the bulk of investors saw the potential security in this "barbaric, ancient, outdated" mode of value and if the credit markets investors went with Gold the value would soar to a level of several thousand dollars an ounce. Of course, most sources that say these things also sell Gold, so...Personally, I think there is a small conspiracy in regards to Gold, since China owns so darn much of it...why would the Western Powers want it to be worth anything?This message has been edited by Phatboy, 02-18-2005 10:50 AM

IMHO I do think North Korea could be a likely threat, not so much because of the nuclear issue, but because of its incredible isolation in which the poeple still believe they are at ar with the U.S. and it has already shown historically a willingness to attck South Korea. They peridocially shoot each other's naval vessles. One major reason that they probably haven't attacked is a fear of a disparity in technology (i'm sure the NK military have an idea about US/SK military capabilities) and because of China. I will hazard a guess that China has been able to hld them back but would definitly use the North Koreans as a delaying tactic or even a mask, if they decide to grab Taiwan. Tell the North Koreans that they will support them if they attack South Korea, and while the US/world is bogged down there, attack Taiwan. The Chinese could then tell the North Koreans, oh so sorry we can't help you, but we will help you negotiate a strong peace agreement with the weight of our army behind you.That and China holds an amazing amount of US debt and a 1999 Chinese military document suggests that they could use that to wage economic war with the US, before going to Taiwan.China will be and is competing with the US over resources such as oil. With 1.3 billion people increasingly demanding access to material goods and a large military and economy, there is bound to be a collision. They have already stated that in the case of Taiwan they are not concerned with the economic repurcussions of invasion. I think they know that the world has a "need" for their cheap goods and may look past their territorial ambitions.Pakistan I think is also a problem, and definitly because of their nuclear weapons. I personally don't think that there nuclear safeguards are very good at all. It seems to me that extremists have too many opportunities/access to these weapons because of the fragility of the government.This message has been edited by DBlevins, 02-18-2005 15:25 AM

And they believe correctly. The Korean war was only ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty (which means that technically the war never ended).

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Confused ? You will be...

Yep, you are right, technically we are. I think (at least what I meant) though, that the government has kept the populace at such a state of fear by leading them to believe that the U.S. is right at there doorsteps and only the military is holding them back. I'm not sure if the populace still believe it is a "Hot" war but I would hazard a guess they think it would be if not for their military.

quote:

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I think (at least what I meant) though, that the government has kept the populace at such a state of fear by leading them to believe that the U.S. is right at there doorsteps and only the military is holding them back.

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Which would be a pretty accurate assessment. The US still maintains a number of military bases in South Korea (and Japan), and during the war in Korea the US led forces almost occupied the whole country -- the armistice was only agreed to after the Chinese entered the war and pushed them all back down to the 38th parallel.

And unfortunately, set the stage for the partition of Vietnam that led to the Vietnam War.

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

If the U.S. was truly a Christian Nation, there would be far fewer Hot Spots.Check this article out and tell me what you guys think:
The Clash of Civilizations I believe that if, God forbid, there was a Third world War that this war would be primarily a war of ideologies unlike any other war before it. Todays young people are not blind patriots, yet they still love their families and country. to prevent such a war requires smarter voting and better candidates than we have had in the past. It also involves turning the other cheek...something that the current administration refuses to do.This message has been edited by Phatboy, 02-20-2005 01:30 AM