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Author Topic:   Statistics 101
sidelined
Member (Idle past 5908 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 112 of 199 (386986)
02-25-2007 8:15 AM
Reply to: Message 110 by riVeRraT
02-25-2007 7:45 AM


Re: Probabilities - not that hard, people
riVeRrat
but if I win on the first try, then my odds for that try were 1-1, it's a proven fact, because I won.
There are no odds on a past event,or ,rather, you cannot establish odds on something that has its certainty of occurrence already established.You can look back from the future after an occurrence and decide on the probability of the outcome but only by saying how likely the occurrence of the event would have been.
If you were to hit a ball down the fairway of a golf course and it lands on whatever given point how can you establish odds for the location of where it finally lands after it comes to rest since you no longer have any other possible outcome?
Now had you said that your odds for that are instead of were 1 in 1 then you might have a case however they are obviously no longer odds then are they?
Edited by sidelined, : No reason given.
Edited by sidelined, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 110 by riVeRraT, posted 02-25-2007 7:45 AM riVeRraT has replied

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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5908 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 117 of 199 (387009)
02-25-2007 10:28 AM
Reply to: Message 115 by crashfrog
02-25-2007 10:00 AM


Re: Probabilities - not that hard, people
crashfrog
The odds of the event happening are the same both before and after it has happened, and just because one outcome occurred doesn't mean the other outcomes were any less possible.
That cannot be correct. The odds of an event happening {1 in whatever} no longer apply after the event. If you are to say that the odds an event happened are 1 in 146 million then what are the 145,999,999 other possibilities after the event has occurred?
Your statement contradicts itself since you establish that the odds are of an event happening. You cannot therefore apply those odds to something that has happened.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 115 by crashfrog, posted 02-25-2007 10:00 AM crashfrog has replied

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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5908 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 147 of 199 (387302)
02-27-2007 5:48 PM
Reply to: Message 118 by Chiroptera
02-25-2007 10:32 AM


Re: Probabilities - not that hard, people
Chiroptera
If your buddy just came up to you and said, "Wow! I just won the lottery! What were the odds of that happening?" In that case, 1 in 146 million would be the correct answer.
Absolutely. The qualifying word here is were. However when you say the odds of the ticket that won are 1 in whatever then you cannot be correct since the field of probability is the study of the chance that a particular event or series of events will occur.

This message is a reply to:
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