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Statistics 101

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Author Topic:   Statistics 101
riVeRraT
Member (Idle past 437 days)
Posts: 5788
From: NY USA
Joined: 05-09-2004

riVeRraT Posts Only
Message 196 of 199 (388847)
03-08-2007 9:43 AM 		Reply to: Message 190 by PaulK
03-06-2007 11:40 AM

Re: monty hall problem
I'd say that it isn't simple at all.
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And 3000 years ago, they would have not said that going to the moon was possible at all. Try to expand your mind.
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But you're wrong, we do know the odds - and they AREN'T 1:1. In the lottery Crash referred to it is 146 million to one. The only way for the odds to be 1:1 is if the game is rigged in your favour.
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Are we back on the second post now? I guess its time to leave.
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In principle, but in reality it isn't possible and a probabilistic model is the best practical description.
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IT may not be possible NOW. But still there are people who try. Maybe they are partially correct.
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The only sensible way to choose a combination is to pick one that other people won't. If you do get lucky you're less liekly to have to share. Anything else is junk - it won't improve your odds at all.
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Why did you omit the part of that statement where I told you that?
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If there is any factor causing the coin to come up tails more often than heads then that IS bias. That is the DEFINITION of statistical bias. It could happen by chance and I'd have to do the math to work out the odds. Maybe my guess is wrong and it is quite likely.
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Like I asked you, is anything truely random?
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Not in the sense you seem to mean. Computers are MEANT to behave deterministically. YOu'd need special hardware to get it truly random.
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What about in life?
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riVeRraT
Member (Idle past 437 days)
Posts: 5788
From: NY USA
Joined: 05-09-2004

riVeRraT Posts Only
Message 197 of 199 (388848)
03-08-2007 9:46 AM 		Reply to: Message 193 by crashfrog
03-06-2007 11:53 AM

Re: monty hall problem
One memorable technique I remember, used at (I think) SGI, was to point a simple webcam at a lava lamp and hash the data a couple of times. But every technique I've heard relies on some external physical source of chaotic activity - bubbling wax in a lava lamp, boiling water, Geiger counter activity, etc. It's not possible to develop truly random output by pure algorithm. This is true by definition.
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So what about in life, is anything truely random?
This message is a reply to:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2

PaulK Posts Only
Message 198 of 199 (388849)
03-08-2007 9:47 AM 		Reply to: Message 195 by riVeRraT
03-08-2007 9:38 AM

Re: monty hall problem
quote:
Because time is a factor
ANd as I keep pointing out, time in itslef is not a factor. And you've produced no argument against it.
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quote:
Both events cannot happen at the same time. They are two different events, the first choice, and the second one. Pretty simple, do deny it, is to deny life.
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i.e. it's a trivial and irrelevant point, and you are just time-wasting.
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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1488 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003

crashfrog Posts Only
Message 199 of 199 (388852)
03-08-2007 10:21 AM 		Reply to: Message 197 by riVeRraT
03-08-2007 9:46 AM

Re: monty hall problem
So what about in life, is anything truely random?
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According to physics, plenty of things are truly random. Atomic decay, for instance. Completely predictable in the aggregate, but random on the level of individual atoms, as near as we can tell.
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What you're asking is - does God play dice with the universe? The answer to that question appears to be "yes", at our current level of understanding.
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