Hurricanes defying conventional science.

Randy, you sly dog, you`ve twigged us. And our guru, Percy-wan Kenobi, said we would be undetectable. Anyhow, may the farce be with you. Oops, I noticed it already is.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle....
I have always heard that as low as 70 degrees, the effect is to sap energy (heat) from the storm, not add to it. changed display version of URL to fix page width - The QueenThis message has been edited by AdminAsgara, 12-05-2005 08:09 AM

The issue here is what nonlinear effects, if any, are involved, and can we figure out what they are.

I already posted the fact it intensified over cold water.

I have asserted nothing bizarre at all. You just have a problem admitting to a commonly reported fact, that this hurricane defied expectations and intensified over cold water. http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle....changed display of URL to fix page width - The QueenThis message has been edited by AdminAsgara, 12-05-2005 08:11 AM

(apologies for the cut/paste post)

quote:

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"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND
THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR
EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF...
SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY
QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON
SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS...AND
THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO
FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE
REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES."

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quote:

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EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE
RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A
TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY
OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING YET

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quote:

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ORRECTED DATES OF AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES

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DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER
...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0920Z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 02/0920Z
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS
IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN
NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.

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quote:

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HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

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"AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

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EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?"

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Lots of info can be found here.I'm trying to figure out why Randman isn't discussing the one that really has meteorologists 'bamboozled': Hurricane Vince

Note that it defied expectations, which isn't at all the same as defying science. As far as I know, a water temperature of 70 would not sap energy, and could add energy. What saps energy is the raining that releases some of the energy from the storm. At 70, this energy loss would not be fully replaced by the moisture due to the water.Presumably in this case there was less raining than usual, so the storm could retain energy for a longer period of time.

In the midwest we regularly see storms intensifying over land, and often that land is colder than 70.

But those storms are not the same as hurricanes. There are reasons hurricanes weaken over cold water and land.

Rand, you're misreading your own quote. The article doesn't say that it intensified. It says that it didn't weaken. There is a difference.

Epsilon is one of many storms this season that meterologists have been baffled by. Is it possible that all of these storms that have followed improbable tracks are entirely natural? Sure! Is it possible that weather manipulation technology is being used? Yes, and I think it is probable. If the technology is available to manipluate the weather (and it is), will powerful governments pursue it? Yes. If these governments develop this technology, will they use it? Yes.ETA: Is there any evidence that weather manipulation tech is being used? ...well... I've looked at quite a few anomalous radar and satelite pics, but of course, there's no way I can tell if they are genuine.This message has been edited by Hangdawg13, 12-05-2005 10:47 AM

I already posted a link and quote where a meteoroligist, one jar recommened, stated it intensified over cold water. There is no dispute as to that, nor that it is very surprising. The issue is why.You guys need to own up to the basic data here, educate yourself on it, and then we can discuss the implications of it, if any.

I don't know either. I was sort of hoping someone here had looked at some of this stuff. I know weather weapons systems are real, and that Defense Sec Cohen warned terrorists were trying to use electromagnetic waves "from remote locations" to trigger storms and earthquakes.I think the non-linear and chaotic comments earlier on the thread, the butterfly effect, is interesting. If we ever understand how such systems work and can figure out most of the variables, it might be possible to trigger, manipulate, and perhaps steer to a degree these storms. Whether that has occurred as some claim is up for debate. There's certainly a lot of anomalous activity, but then again, as someone posted, there was once a storm in the 50s that lasted over a 2 year span.I think last year's south Atlantic storm was the one most suprising though.This message has been edited by randman, 12-05-2005 11:13 AM

You seem to not understand what nonlinear dynamics involve. Trust me, the weather, like most systems in the universe, are chaotic in nature and are very hard to predict. A child could literally start a hurricane by sneezing.A better example of a nonlinear chaotic system to visualize is the double pendulum. The single pendulum motion is easy to predict. We actually have an equation for it where we input a couple of variables and have an output. The double pendulum, however, is chaotic and is impossible to predict. The best anyone could do is predict the probability of what might happen next. It's pretty scary.

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