The social and polical importance of tropical weather

Forecasters seem fairly certain that what is now Tropical Depression 24 moving north from the doldrums in the Caribbean will become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Wilma. Take a look at the forecast track from Weather Underground:The weekend TV meteorologists all seem to be worried that this will become yet another major hurricane threat for the Gulf Coast. Can the US sustain another cat 4 or 5 hit?I don't want to discuss the theology of God's wrath in this thread except to observe or debate the impact that such theology has on society. There are more appropriate forums available for such a topic.I think most all of us now believe the forecasters when they say we're in a period of dramatically heightened hurricane activity. How many times can our Atlantic and Gulf Coasts sustain such horrendous storms over the next 20 years or so before our economy sinks?How long before one of these things makes its way up to New England? What would be the economic impact of a repeat of 1938's Long Island Express hurricane, a cat 3?Two years ago when forecasters first mentioned (to my knowledge, anyway) the heightened danger in the tropics I don't think anyone imagined just how terrible it would be. I'm beginning to think that the greatest danger to us and our way of life here in America is not from other nations or from terrorists - in other words, not from men - but rather from tropical weather systems.

holmes writes me:

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I'm beginning to think that the greatest danger to us and our way of life here in America is not from other nations or from terrorists - in other words, not from men - but rather from tropical weather systems.

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I just don't think this is true. If we do not adjust how people live (physical structures and locations) in these areas, then it will be costly, but I don't think anything will actually break our bank (at least not anymore than the wars we are fighting). Natural disasters strike every nation, and some more strongly and more repeatedly than others.

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The fact that mankind and nations have moved on thrived, means mankind is likely to continue to move on and thrive.

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I think the danger can be overstated and I certainly don't have any visions of a tropical apocalypse, but - for one thing - I wasn't talking about mankind, I was talking about the US. For another, I'm only talking about wrecking the economy, not destroying it. Sorry if I wasn't clear on those points.Consider how many cat 4 and 5 storms have hit us in just the past two years. Consider how each and every one of them somehow manages to find its way to several of our most crucial oil rigs. Consider how the government response is typically to grant new tax breaks to the oil companies, in spite of the fact that big oil continues to enjoy high profits.Considering all of this in light of the obvious problems of continuous reconstruction of coastal metropolitain areas (likely to become an industry of its own, and thus a failed industry once the pace of storms slows), it seems to me that such storms could definitely help tip us into a recession. Once we are in a recession, a continuing series of major hurricanes striking oil rigs and populated areas might be enough to keep us there if not drive us into an outright depression. Personally, I doubt a depression is likely but it certainly seems possible.Remember, this will all be happening against a likely backdrop of strong growth in the EU and Asian economies. Our losses will be their gains, especially since we're borrowing so much money to rebuild, fight unnecessary wars and give tax cuts to our wealthiest citizens. I think the US is certainly in danger of losing its position as the world's economic leader, to be replaced either by Europe, China or Japan. That would do more harm to us and our way of life for the long term than another one or two 9/11s, I think.

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.

Sorry, holmes. Looks like I was misunderstanding you. You bring up a good point:

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...are the real problems. They are manmade.

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Well that's the rub, isn't it? Yes, the root problems are man-made, but I think even if we had been enjoying the best of the Clinton economy when this hurricane age started last year, another few years of increasing storm activity could still knock us into a recession.As it is, I think there's only so many more storms we can take before all of us in the middle class will be suffering significantly.I don't think a series of storms is going to destroy us, but I definitely think we're headed for a serious recession if we have another year like this one. If nothing else, the price of gas will rise to the point that many more millions of people will have effectively no discretionary income for some years.Hence, I think the biggest single threat to our way of life at this precise moment is the weather.

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.

RAZD writes:

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Are we ready for Alpha? There's still 40-45 days to the season.

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Yeah, and on MSNBC they mentioned that there are a couple tropical waves down in the doldrums right now that are expected to strengthen. It looks pretty certain that we will be into the Greek alphabet.And they say next year might be worse.Looks like Wilma might go toward Tampa. Anybody know much about the topographic situation there?

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.

I think that's how the naming convention started. An Austrailian radio forecaster began naming the storms after politicians he didn't like back in the 1910s or 1920s. The US military picked up on the idea some time later, I'm not sure when. I do know that the military was using female names for hurricanes as far back as WWII.

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.

holmes writes me:

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It just occured to me that perhaps our disconnect is that when you say "way of life" you are actually meaning "standard of living".

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Pretty damned close but not exactly. 'Standard of living' is a key part of 'way of life' as I see it. I disagree with you that they're very different, because I think the one falls under the heading of the other.In any case you're correct to imply we've been talking past one another on this.If we drop into recession soon, which I think could happen if the forecasts for much higher heating oil and electricity prices this winter are true, we might be facing something like the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, which compounded the Great Depression. And if you ask me, a typical victim of the Dust Bowl had a 'way of life' that was affected far more by his poverty than by his constitutional rights or his American citizenship.

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.

Good God, this thing's already a cat 5 monster. Check the central pressure - 892mb!

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.

From the latest update: Pretty amazing stuff.If anyone here knows anything about meteorology, I have a question: why don't forecasters predict what size a storm is likely to be when it passes a certain point? When you compare the huge monster Katrina to the tighter and stronger Camille in terms of storm surge and extent of damage you can see how important the physical size is. The TV meteorologists always report the current size of these blows, but they seldom say whether growth or shrinkage is expected. Why not?

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"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.