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Author Topic:   The social and polical importance of tropical weather
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5841 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 4 of 25 (252332)
10-17-2005 5:59 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by berberry
10-16-2005 8:34 PM


I think most all of us now believe the forecasters when they say we're in a period of dramatically heightened hurricane activity. How many times can our Atlantic and Gulf Coasts sustain such horrendous storms over the next 20 years or so before our economy sinks?
There are two points about the above which should be of relevant concern. The first is that they do suggest that the current period of excessive storms will likely last another 20 years so this is a real question. And second, that even when that ebbs the current situation is more the norm than the relative quieter storms we had before this period began.
In other words it may be getting worse before it gets better, and when it gets better it may not be anywhere as nice as it has been when we were all rapidly developing into those areas.
I'm beginning to think that the greatest danger to us and our way of life here in America is not from other nations or from terrorists - in other words, not from men - but rather from tropical weather systems.
I just don't think this is true. If we do not adjust how people live (physical structures and locations) in these areas, then it will be costly, but I don't think anything will actually break our bank (at least not anymore than the wars we are fighting). Natural disasters strike every nation, and some more strongly and more repeatedly than others.
The fact that mankind and nations have moved on thrived, means mankind is likely to continue to move on and thrive. The nature of our "lifestyle" will be dictated by those who move on. A storm can't threaten how we choose to live socially in between storms, unless we are locked in a very small geographical location.
Once again, I am in a nation where 1/3 is underwater technically, and even more during storm surges. Technology kept this nation alive and well... until rightists entered power and drastically changed the course of this nation reversing decades to centuries of its "culture".

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by berberry, posted 10-16-2005 8:34 PM berberry has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 9:22 AM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5841 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 7 of 25 (252375)
10-17-2005 11:31 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by berberry
10-17-2005 9:22 AM


I wasn't talking about mankind, I was talking about the US. For another, I'm only talking about wrecking the economy, not destroying it. Sorry if I wasn't clear on those points.
I understood you meant the US, but was bringing in the fact that if it can't destroy smaller nations it likely won't destroy the US. I see no difference between "wrecking" and "destroying" the economy.
This...
Consider how the government response is typically to grant new tax breaks to the oil companies, in spite of the fact that big oil continues to enjoy high profits.
and this...
Remember, this will all be happening against a likely backdrop of strong growth in the EU and Asian economies. Our losses will be their gains, especially since we're borrowing so much money to rebuild, fight unnecessary wars and give tax cuts to our wealthiest citizens.
...are the real problems. They are manmade.
You are right that natural disasters will compound these issues to make them worse. But I'm of the opinion that that fact doesn't make the natural disasters the cause of our worries, nor should they be the focus of our (economic) concerns.
This message has been edited by holmes, 10-17-2005 11:31 AM

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 9:22 AM berberry has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 7:11 PM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5841 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 19 of 25 (252610)
10-18-2005 4:46 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by berberry
10-17-2005 7:11 PM


I think even if we had been enjoying the best of the Clinton economy when this hurricane age started last year, another few years of increasing storm activity could still knock us into a recession.
Hurricane age? Again we are simply shifting back toward norms. We were in a passive age which deluded a lot of people.
I do not feel confident to predict whether another few years will or will not knock us into a recession for a time, but if we cannot recover to a point where we can weather future years of storms with minimal impact on the economy as a whole then that would be a manmade one.
If nothing else, the price of gas will rise to the point that many more millions of people will have effectively no discretionary income for some years.
Well that is true but tied back again to wholly manmade issues. If we were not in the situation we are with oil, then storms hitting regional oil supplies would not be a major factor.
I think the biggest single threat to our way of life at this precise moment is the weather.
It is humbling to see that nature will always be a player in human life, but I just can't agree with "threat to our way of life". Regionally perhaps, especially if the way people live physically does not adjust (that is people do not adapt), but not wholesale.
Maybe I am just not understanding what way of life means to you. In fact now that I think of it recessions and depressions do not really change our way of life as they are a part of life. Way of life to me means a change in social order, such that we lose freedoms we once had, or are incapable of living together as we once had.
The last great depression caused suffering, but life includes periods of suffering and our "way of life" handles it or it cannot and ends. In this case our way of life most certainly did handle the depression, and we came out with some extra securities.
It was actually during the periods of good economy and weather that our greatest changes away from our "way of life" have generally occured.
Maybe it just seems that way to me though, since natural disasters force everyone to be practical with solutions, while manmade disasters means that any and all solutions can be invoked, usually the most drastic to how we live.
AbE: It just occured to me that perhaps our disconnect is that when you say "way of life" you are actually meaning "standard of living". To me those are very different things, recessions and depressions marking reduced standards of living even if they do not change our way of life. I would agree that multiple and continuous natural disasters could very well effect the standard of living. Though I still believe that should eventually work itself out over time.
This message has been edited by holmes, 10-18-2005 05:59 AM

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 7:11 PM berberry has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by berberry, posted 10-18-2005 9:40 AM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5841 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 21 of 25 (252831)
10-18-2005 5:07 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by berberry
10-18-2005 9:40 AM


'Standard of living' is a key part of 'way of life' as I see it. I disagree with you that they're very different, because I think the one falls under the heading of the other.
This is not a right or wrong thing, but a matter of opinion. Thus I am not going to argue that you are wrong in considering things in this way. What I will do is explain why I see it differently. We can use your example...
we might be facing something like the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, which compounded the Great Depression. And if you ask me, a typical victim of the Dust Bowl had a 'way of life' that was affected far more by his poverty than by his constitutional rights or his American citizenship.
I'm glad you brought this up as an example as I wanted to earlier. I agree with your assessment that things could certainly get as bad as that, only now from mounting storms. Although you state here that a victims of the dust bowl had their "way if life" effected, that is significantly different than OUR way of life.
As I said, suffering is a part of life. A person having suffered a couple heart attacks will have their way of life effected, as they must now live much differently in order to try and preserve their standard of living. Yet even if their is a significant rise in the number of heart attacks across the nation, the nation's way of life will not change, even if standards of living are generally effected with the cost of healthcare going up.
The same goes with the dust bowl victims. They were caught in a regional suffering and had both their standard of living and way of life effected. But the nation as a whole maintained its way of life, even if the standard of living dropped.
If it hadn't kept its way of life then when the depression went into recovery we'd have been looking at a vastly different nation. But it wasn't, except for a few more protection to guard against future occurences. Those that had had their standard of living reduced, may have seen good times again and lived the same way they had before.
A counter point would be Nazi germany. Although they did not face a true natural crisis, they suffered a similar manmade crisis (economic collapse). Unlike the US, the Germans were willing to sacrifice their way of life to try and regain their standard of living. Once recovery happened, german citizens were faced with a much much different nation and way of doing things.
That's why I do not conflate standard of living with way of life. In doing that it is easier to see solutions to standards problems by changing the way we live.
Hope that was interesting, but like I said if you want to keep your way of looking at things I certainly won't call you wrong.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by berberry, posted 10-18-2005 9:40 AM berberry has not replied

  
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