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Author Topic:   Global Futurism. A discussion of impending issues
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 18 of 241 (443813)
12-26-2007 8:42 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Phat
12-26-2007 12:08 AM


The new bogeyman
I was watching a show on CNN called Planet In Peril which states, among other things, that by 2050, there will be 50% more people on earth than there now are and that the environmental impacts will be pronounced.
In 1789, Thomas Malthus predicted that the planet would be completely stripped of its natural resources, causing worldwide famine. I think we see how that turned out. Part of the problem I see with his assessment is that he neglected to predict the enormous impact that the Industrial Revolution had on agriculture. Innovative technological advances have allowed for a surplus, farmed on considerably less land than just a century ago.
Nevertheless, this Malthusian theory is still a very popular one, widely propagated today by his successors. While it is unquestionable that there are people on the earth than ever before, I doubt that the earth is not in any immediate danger of being too overcrowded -- even by 2050. Of course, however, this does not give human beings free reign to do as they wish. We should still protect the environment and recognize the symbiotic relationship we share with nature. Everyone should be conscience of the environment, but not at the price of rhetoric.
The UN states that that the earth can sustain 9 billion people in relative comfort. I think what people tend to do is look at cities that are exploding in population, like, Sao Paolo, Beijing, Tokyo, New York City, Los Angeles, Cairo, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Calcutta, and such, as a model in the presumption that the earth is like this everywhere. Nothing could be further from the truth. The reality is that people are boxing themselves in. All the best jobs with the highest market value and the strongest economy are in the major cities. The metropolitan cities have all of the comforts that we do not need.
Take the United States for example. The US population is the third highest in the world, at just over 280 million residents. And we say to ourselves, wow, that sounds like a lot! Well, it is a lot, but then again, so is the mileage of this nation. Models have been made showing that every single American can live in the state of Texas, each family with 2 acres of land. (I don’t even own a fifteenth of one acre). Don’t believe it? Have you ever driven through Texas? There is so much land just off the interstates that you can literally drive for hours and barely see any development at all.
Even the heaviest populated country in the world, China, has a lot more room to expand. If you look on the map and take note of where most of the cities are located, 75% of them are their eastern seaboards where trade and commerce is highest. The reason why China has forcefully limited one child per familial unit is because they area Communist nation. Their economic system cannot support their current volume because they have limited themselves for a century. Interestingly enough, China’s economy has boomed in recent years because they are finally figuring out that adopting Capitalist ideals works well. Millions have been lifted out of poverty that otherwise would have died under their old regime.
In essence, these figures do not account for human ingenuity, which should never be discounted. For a more detailed argument, go here. Its a very interesting article.
They traveled to 13 countries and saw that species are disappearing at 1000 times the average. The show is obvious in its truthful reporting. The issues are complex.
Species are always disappearing. Its a sad fact. Plus, now that we have cloning, instead of cloning more people, which would obviously make the world that much more populated, why not clone endangered species? The California Condor, which at one time, was so endangered that its numbers were diminished down to literally 7, has been placed in the Grand Canyon natural refuge. Their numbers are increasing exponentially. We just have to continue with conservation, or come to the realization that some species are not meant to survive. Remember that whole survival-of-the-fittest thingy? Who was it that said that again???? Ah, right... Charles Darwin.
what is the impact of religious fundamentalism on human awareness of the future on earth?
What??? What does that have to do with anything?
Is Global warming preventable? How will the relocation of coastal populations be able to be accomplished given the diminishing resources globally? Will humans be able to put aside our selfish and survivalist nature and cooperate, or will there be wars as a result of these massive changes?
There will always be war as long as the human condition has its predilections towards sin.
Can humanity maintain the standards of living that we in the United States now take for granted?
It appears to continue as we speak. People live arguably more comfortably than they ever have in the past.
What IF? What if there are other natural disasters...such as Yellowstone or a Pacific Coast Tsunami and/or Earthquake? Could we survive? If so, would it be worth it?
There will be natural disasters. And there will be survivors. And if there isn't, so what? Does it matter either way? Isn't that what extremist ecologists want after all?

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Phat, posted 12-26-2007 12:08 AM Phat has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by NosyNed, posted 12-27-2007 11:30 AM Hyroglyphx has replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 22 of 241 (443891)
12-27-2007 11:47 AM
Reply to: Message 21 by NosyNed
12-27-2007 11:30 AM


Re: How it turned out.
quote:
In 1789, Thomas Malthus predicted that the planet would be completely stripped of its natural resources, causing worldwide famine. I think we see how that turned out.
Exactly as he predicted.
Not even close to what he predicted. People eat better China now than they ever have.
Compare the state of the world now to 1789.
And what will we see? People eating better, living in more comfort?
Examine the current trends across the globe. Extrapolate only a few more decades.
22 decades after his prediction and we continue living... Productively, at that.

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by NosyNed, posted 12-27-2007 11:30 AM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by jar, posted 12-27-2007 12:00 PM Hyroglyphx has replied
 Message 28 by NosyNed, posted 12-27-2007 2:18 PM Hyroglyphx has replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 23 of 241 (443892)
12-27-2007 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 20 by Tal
12-27-2007 1:32 AM


Re: The real threat to humanity are Environmentalists
Great topic... I've actually been thinking about starting a DDT thread but keep forgetting.

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by Tal, posted 12-27-2007 1:32 AM Tal has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 26 by Omnivorous, posted 12-27-2007 12:12 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 29 of 241 (443942)
12-27-2007 4:04 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by jar
12-27-2007 12:00 PM


Re: How it turned out.
The key thing to remember is that some people took his predictions seriously enough to actually try to ameliorate the consequences
Maybe its just our time to go and Mother Earth is purging us out of existence.

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by jar, posted 12-27-2007 12:00 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 30 by jar, posted 12-27-2007 5:03 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 64 of 241 (444134)
12-28-2007 1:03 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by NosyNed
12-27-2007 2:18 PM


Re: Glasses full and not so full
It is so nice NJ, that you are a glass half full kind of person.
I'm just livin' the dream.
It is definitely true that we have more than the 1789 population liveing well.
We also have more than the 1789 population starving.
You have to look at the entire aggregate for that and go by a per capita basis.
We also have much, much less available untapped land resource (among others) to use. In fact there is very nearly none.
But that's just it... We have plenty of untapped land. Your country alone is one of the largest in land mass, yet only houses some 60 million residents. There is plenty of expansion that can occur. Moreover, cities in the US are moving away from the European style cities that we find in New York City, where they build up, not across. I think more cities should go up, not across.
Los Angeles has 4 times the amount of land mass than New York City. Yet, NYC houses 3 million more than LA. Building up is better. Building mass transit is better than having millions of motorists on the road. I think any developing city should look towards European models when it comes to their infrastructure.
We have much, much, much less ocean resource to use. In fact the available spare amount is negative -- we are way over exploiting the sea.
I'm not sure I understand what you mean here. Give me an example.
The Malthus limit isn't reached like the edge of a cliff at one calendar day sometime. We are over it but we are running on momentum.
We've been waiting ever patiently for the bottom to drop out. The problem is not being concerned about it. The greater problem is what happens as a result of that concern. Eugenics programs pop up to devalue life. The question is, who stays and who goes?
If you had your way, what would you do to curb the population, especially when what you as a Canadian has no legal application in, say, India or China? What methods would you use, especially when coming to the same conclusion that Malthus has:
"I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations." -Thomas Malthus

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by NosyNed, posted 12-27-2007 2:18 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 122 of 241 (444562)
12-29-2007 9:02 PM
Reply to: Message 108 by tesla
12-29-2007 10:00 AM


Re: National Day of Prayer
*deleted content because it was too voluminous especially when it didn't answer the question.
Edited by Nemesis Juggernaut, : delete content

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 108 by tesla, posted 12-29-2007 10:00 AM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 123 by tesla, posted 12-29-2007 9:10 PM Hyroglyphx has replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 124 of 241 (444567)
12-29-2007 9:47 PM
Reply to: Message 123 by tesla
12-29-2007 9:10 PM


Re: National Day of Prayer
no...i meant of worldwide global issues of impending disaster like global warming....wow....thats.alot of uh..stuff. sorry not what i was referring
Dammit!!! I guess I should erase it then since it takes up so much space.
I guess I'm not sure what you are asking then... Can you elaborate?

“First dentistry was painless, then bicycles were chainless, and carriages were horseless, and many laws enforceless. Next cookery was fireless, telegraphy was wireless, cigars were nicotineless, and coffee caffeineless. Soon oranges were seedless, the putting green was weedless, the college boy was hatless, the proper diet -- fatless. New motor roads are dustless, the latest steel is rustless, our tennis courts are sodless, our new religion -- Godless” -Arthur Guiterman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 123 by tesla, posted 12-29-2007 9:10 PM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 127 by tesla, posted 12-29-2007 10:56 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
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