Coyote writes:
To explain your error we'll use dice. The task is to roll 25 dice and get all sixes.
Your example throws 25 at a time, repeating endlessly, until you get 25 sixes. Don't plan on doing anything else for a few centures.
The way evolution actually works is akin to throwing those 25 dice and then rethrowing only those that are not sixes. You'll be done in a few minutes.
So every time you are tempted to use those impossibly large numbers, ask yourself if those numbers actually apply to the case at hand.
Clever analogy, high five.
Of course ID proponents won't get it, they believe the laws of probability only work if the dice is loaded.
The idea of the sacred is quite simply one of the most conservative notions in any culture, because it seeks to turn other ideas - uncertainty, progress, change - into crimes.
Salman Rushdie
This rudderless world is not shaped by vague metaphysical forces. It is not God who kills the children. Not fate that butchers them or destiny that feeds them to the dogs. It’s us. Only us. - the character Rorschach in Watchmen
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