Immaterial "Evidence"

If you saw a crow in the woods around here contextual information would suggest a high probability of you being right.Accepting said crow would not cause any upturning of current understanding of the natural history of the area; ie, it makes little difference if I erroneously accept your statement.I would, without further effort, give it a pretty high level of acceptance.If, however, you saw an Ivory billed Woodpecker in Arkansas you would get only a moderately low level of acceptance without further support. The context of information that we have is far different and the consequences are vastly different (there is a large reward for finding one and proving it).Assigning different levels of acceptance is not retarded. It is exactly what we do everyday. It is the only rational behavior.

I have received warnings of various sorts lots of times. Every single one was followed by absolutely nothing happening. The voice was me, I worry too much. But sometimes I do get strong feelings of doom.