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Do you think he will get through to his stated target audience?
No
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Will creationists (or "history-deniers" as he calls them) read this book?
Some will, but they won't be convinced
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Will those who are surrounded by "history-deniers" be better prepared as a result of this book?
A little. It's not as good as Jerry Coyne's 'Why Evolution is True'.
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Or will it simply and inevitably be a case of preaching to the converted (I have my copy as yet unread)?
Largely, but I have to say I was a little bit disappointed with the book. There are some interesting experiments I learned about from it but in many areas I didn't learn that much from it - which I certainly did from 'Why Evolution is True'.
He can't help insulting creationists - which is not exactly going to help meet his stated obhective of changing their minds.