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Author Topic:   What is Evidence?
Stile
Member
Posts: 4295
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004


Message 6 of 51 (538159)
12-04-2009 9:10 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by Jon
12-04-2009 12:13 AM


Information -> Fact -> Evidence -> Possible Conclusion -> Accepted Conclusion
Information - pretty much everything, including subjective imagination
Fact - an objective record of reality. Is repeatable and verifiable. It is possible for something to 'be a fact' and then 'not be a fact' at a later time. For example, if I show you my red hat and say "my hat is red", and you agree, then it is a fact. However, if I lose my hat, and then continue to claim that it is red... it's some likely information, but it's no longer a fact. It is no longer repeatable or verifiable. (Someone could have painted my hat).
Evidence - A fact (or multiple facts) that support possible conclusions. The more facts you have, the more evidence you have, and the fewer possible conclusions you will have.
Possible Conclusion - A guess at something that is not known that is supported by the evidence of all available facts.
When can a possible conclusion be ruled out? The easiest (and best) way to rule out possible conclusion is when we obtain facts that directly contradict that conclusion. However, we are always capable of imagining some scenario where something that "seems unlikely" could still happen. This then becomes a more subjective process, and the rational explanation is identified by Occam's Razor (the simplest explantion is likely the correct one). The rational explanation may not be the correct one, but it is the logical and rational one. And, unless more facts can be obtained, it is irrational to conclude otherwise.
Accepted Conclusion - After proceeding with facts and evidence to reduce the number of conclusions as far as possible, a rational judgement must be made. Hopefully all possible conclusions have been ruled out except for one. If not, Occam's Razor will provide the rationally accepted conclusion.
For example: A broken window and a golf ball on my couch is evidence of an errant golf ball. It is also evidence of a theif that left a golf ball calling card. How can I tell? The best way to proceed is to obtain additional facts. Is anything missing from my house? Does my golf-loving neighbour hate me because I just slashed his tires? However, if I am unable to attain additional facts, Occam's Razor would lead us to give the errant golf ball explanation more weight than the theif. The reality may actually be the theif, but it is irrational at this point to consider such until additional facts can be found that would support such a conclusion.
The process is not perfect or foolproof. But it is the best one divised by human imagination to date that gets as close to the truth as possible.
It should be noted that the process is never "done" or "completed." When (or if) additional facts are found, at any time, the accepted conclusion is re-assessed.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Jon, posted 12-04-2009 12:13 AM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Dr Jack, posted 12-04-2009 10:30 AM Stile has replied
 Message 10 by Jon, posted 12-04-2009 11:26 AM Stile has replied

  
Stile
Member
Posts: 4295
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004


Message 8 of 51 (538174)
12-04-2009 10:52 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Dr Jack
12-04-2009 10:30 AM


Of Facts and Fancy
Mr Jack writes:
I must disagree, repeatability really shouldn't be taken as part of the criteria for a fact otherwise you cannot have any historicaly facts, which is silly. Nor am I sure what you expect to gain from repeatable over merely verifiable?
You're right.
Perhaps that's the difference between Fact and Raw Data?
I mean, Raw Data would be 'historical fact', but how do we know it wasn't changed at all? Or done wrong?
There is a difference between the three following things:
1. Me having a red hat, showing it to you, and saying "my hat is red." (Fact? - Verifiable and Repeatable)
2. Me no longer having a red hat, not being able to show it to you, and saying "my hat was red when I had it and I showed it to you." (Historical Fact? - Raw Data? - Possibly verifiable if someone else also took measurements, not repeatable)
3. Me no longer having a red hat, not being able to show it to you, and saying "my hat is still red." (Not a fact in any way? - Not verifiable, not repeatable)
Not sure how to define the 3 different groups, or even if there are any other groups.
Obviously, they aren't all on the same level, so to treat them as such would be misleading and providing a source for errors.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Dr Jack, posted 12-04-2009 10:30 AM Dr Jack has not replied

  
Stile
Member
Posts: 4295
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004


(1)
Message 20 of 51 (538304)
12-05-2009 12:16 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Jon
12-04-2009 11:26 AM


Minor Modification
Jon writes:
Oops... looks like your description creates a nesting error that can never end. Not sure how you could refer to that logical pong game as 'objective'. Try again, Joe.
You are correct, I messed it up a bit. Here, I'll fix it for you:
Fact - An objective record of reality.
Evidence - A fact that supports one or more possible conclusions.
Possible Conclusion - A guess at something that is not known that is supported by all the available facts.
So we end up with:
Evidence - An objective record of reality that supports one or more guesses at something that is not known that is supported by all the available objective records of reality.
Thanks for helping in the clarification.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Jon, posted 12-04-2009 11:26 AM Jon has not replied

  
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