I have twice referenced a paper that found approximately 60 new mutations in the genomes of two human children. If we assume 1-2% of the genome is coding DNA (i.e. genes), this means we should expect 1-2% x 60 = 0.6 new alleles per individual birth (this is genome-wide).
Just wanted to clarify how the math works.
If the 60 mutations are single nucleotide mistakes that occur randomly throughout an average individual's genome, then with 3 billion nucleotides that's a mutation rate of 2 x 10-8. If 1 to 2 x 10-2 of the genome is coding (i.e., 1% to 2%) and the number of genes in the human genome is 30,000, then one could reasonably expect the number of genes with new alleles to be around 1 most of the time, because the odds for one of those mutations occurring in an actual gene is .002% to .004%, times 30,000 genes, which is 0.6 to 1.2 mutations (which are new alleles) per individual.
There are about 130 million babies born every year, and so if there's approximately one new allele per individual then on average the human race produces around 130 million new alleles every year. Some number of those would be duplicates, but getting in the ballpark statistically on that figure would not be a simple calculation.
If a small group of a hundred individuals were to become trapped on an island then they would have around 1 or 2 babies per year (I'm assuming same birth rate as the world), which is 1 or two new alleles per year.
The question you two are currently discussing is how this rate of increase in alleles in this small population compares with it's rate of loss. The death rate in the world today is only about 40% of the birth rate, so barring catastrophe the population size will increase.
Re: RAZD and Ring Species -- wow what a miscommunication
OK, I'll answer RAZD here instead of on the other thread:
My suggestion is that you focus on the discussion in this thread. You're still focused on the other thread, you're just posting your responses here instead, which is very confusing. If you choose not to follow my suggestion then you may as well at least post your replies in the correct thread.
Well, this isn't fair. ZenMonkey can take as much time as he likes, but it isn't fair to you that you have no posting permissions over in Biological Evolution while awaiting a response here, so I'm going to restore them for now.