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Author Topic:   Scientific Theory For Dummies
subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 10 of 57 (554550)
04-08-2010 9:57 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by RAZD
04-08-2010 9:38 PM


Naive falsificationism
RAZD writes:
(4) Absence of Contradictory Evidence:
There cannot be any contradictory evidence or the theory is falsified,....
Be careful you don't fall into naive falsificationism with this. I daresay that there hasn't been an hypothesis or theory ever proposed that wasn't contradicted by some observation in its early stages. Hypotheses and theories are modified every day to account for new information that the previous incarnation didn't agree with. In essence, it becomes a judgment whether the seemingly contradictory evidence can be accommodated by a modification, or if the whole thing must be consigned to the dustbin.
I suspect that for any relatively sophisticated theory or hypothesis, it would be unusual for one single piece of contradictory evidence to cause scientists to abandon it.
Edited by subbie, : Subtitle

Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions. Ideas must be distinct before reason can act upon them; and no man ever had a distinct idea of the trinity. It is the mere Abracadabra of the mountebanks calling themselves the priests of Jesus. -- Thomas Jefferson
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by RAZD, posted 04-08-2010 9:38 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by Stagamancer, posted 04-09-2010 3:10 PM subbie has seen this message but not replied

  
subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


(1)
Message 47 of 57 (574617)
08-16-2010 10:00 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Tram law
08-16-2010 8:20 PM


Because what confuses me is that it sounds like a person is supposed to do anything they can to find out if something is wrong,...
Yes, that is exactly what scientists try to do, prove a theory wrong. The reason for this is simple; there's no way to prove a theory right. No matter how much a theory explains or how powerful the predictions it makes, it might always be incorrect. There is always the possibility that more evidence will be found that invalidates a theory, or someone may come up with a better explanation for the same evidence. And the best way to find that potential contradictory evidence is to challenge theories. In addition, the more challenges a theory survives, the stronger it is considered.
...then if something is wrong then it calls the entire body of work into question.
It's actually considerably more complicated than that. The first step when seemingly contradictory evidence is found is to see if the theory can be modified to accommodate the new evidence. This happens all the time. I would venture to guess that no significant theory has ever remained completely unchanged from its first inception to the present time. There's also the possibility that the new evidence is actually incorrect. But in essence you are correct. If there is verifiable evidence that a theory cannot account for, that does call into question the entire body of work. Because a theory that cannot be reconciled with all the evidence obviously has something wrong with it.
Because if that was the way science truly work, then how can there be any progress, since, anybody with enough skill can find something wrong with some part and turn it against the body of work?
That's why an idea that has been accorded the status of a theory is very highly regarded in science. A theory is a comprehensive explanation of a broad body of evidence that nobody has been able to find anything wrong with. A scientific theory is not simply a guess that someone has made.
For this kind of thing I am keeping in mind the general practice of Creationists who do this kind of thing.
Well, with very few exceptions, the things that creationists think are problems with the Theory of Evolution are not problems at all. Often the things they say are simply factually incorrect. Most of the rest of it consists of things that creationists just don't understand, so they think they are problems.

Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions. Ideas must be distinct before reason can act upon them; and no man ever had a distinct idea of the trinity. It is the mere Abracadabra of the mountebanks calling themselves the priests of Jesus. -- Thomas Jefferson
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat
It has always struck me as odd that fundies devote so much time and effort into trying to find a naturalistic explanation for their mythical flood, while looking for magical explanations for things that actually happened. -- Dr. Adequate

This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Tram law, posted 08-16-2010 8:20 PM Tram law has not replied

  
subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 51 of 57 (574723)
08-17-2010 1:04 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by Tram law
08-17-2010 12:52 PM


Okay, the first problem with your hypothetical is that what you have constructed isn't really a theory, at least not in scientific terms. As I described upthread, a theory is a comprehensive explanation of a broad body of evidence that nobody has been able to find anything wrong with.
What you have stated is more properly described as a hypothesis. Your hypothesis could be broadened into a theory if you expanded it to a more general statement describing how and under what conditions different things float.
Now, if we were to look at the results of your experiments, we'd try to find out the reason the two bars didn't float. Were they not in fact Ivory Soap but an imposter? Were they made by the Ivory Soap company, but using a different formula or manufacturing process? Was there a change in the environmental conditions that would account for the different outcome? Were the two non-floating bars tampered with by inserting a lump of lead?
Most scientists would conclude from the results you describe that there was something different to explain the different outcome and look for that difference. Depending on what they found, that difference could be used to flesh out the hypothesis into something broader that might become a theory.
But certainly, if 998 times out of a thousand the results showed that Ivory Soap floats, you'd have to be a creationist to conclude that it's impossible for Ivory Soap to float just because it sank twice. That's simply irrational.

Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions. Ideas must be distinct before reason can act upon them; and no man ever had a distinct idea of the trinity. It is the mere Abracadabra of the mountebanks calling themselves the priests of Jesus. -- Thomas Jefferson
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat
It has always struck me as odd that fundies devote so much time and effort into trying to find a naturalistic explanation for their mythical flood, while looking for magical explanations for things that actually happened. -- Dr. Adequate

This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by Tram law, posted 08-17-2010 12:52 PM Tram law has not replied

  
subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


(1)
Message 53 of 57 (574725)
08-17-2010 1:19 PM
Reply to: Message 52 by Tram law
08-17-2010 1:08 PM


So a theory has to have more than one result from an experiment?
Yes, and it normally describes a broader range of facts than can be investigated in one single experiment.
But yeah, with the two bars that didn't float I would also investigate what materials they were made of to see why they didn't float.
And that's why scientists don't simply discard a theory, or even a hypothesis, because of one negative result. There isn't really any hard and fast rule about how many negative results are enough to sink a theory or hypothesis, it really depends on how strong the theory is and how strong the evidence against it is.
Also, one posting tip. When you're replying to a message, it's a good idea to use the reply button that you see near the bottom of that message. That helps others see who you are replying to, and also sends an email message to the poster of that message to tell them that someone has replied. It helps keep things a bit more organized.

Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions. Ideas must be distinct before reason can act upon them; and no man ever had a distinct idea of the trinity. It is the mere Abracadabra of the mountebanks calling themselves the priests of Jesus. -- Thomas Jefferson
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat
It has always struck me as odd that fundies devote so much time and effort into trying to find a naturalistic explanation for their mythical flood, while looking for magical explanations for things that actually happened. -- Dr. Adequate

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by Tram law, posted 08-17-2010 1:08 PM Tram law has not replied

  
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