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Author Topic:   Hugh Ross
anglagard
Member (Idle past 857 days)
Posts: 2339
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006


Message 31 of 90 (570026)
07-25-2010 2:38 AM
Reply to: Message 30 by kbertsche
07-25-2010 1:25 AM


Probability brackets?
kbertsche writes:
I don't think you are following Ross' argument. I believe he is claiming that the "late heavy bombardment" or "Hadean era" ended about 3.85 billion years ago, and that it would have taken about 50 million years for the earth to cool enough to for liquid water to exist, taking us to about 3.8 billion years. But at about 3.8 billion years we have carbon deposits which are seen as the first evidence of single-celled life. His point is that as soon as earth cooled enough to support life, life was here. So there was essentially no time for abiogenesis.
Dang near 4 billion years ago and 50 million is a quibble? Maybe it was 3.9 billion years ago instead of 3.85. Maybe the carbon deposits are actually 3.75 billion years old.
Your argument and Ross' would carry more weight if it included the traditional 95% statistical probability error brackets that most all peer reviewed journals carry when reporting research about age.
Perhaps if they are there in the research, you should make it clear to us all.
Do the probability brackets overlap?

The idea of the sacred is quite simply one of the most conservative notions in any culture, because it seeks to turn other ideas - uncertainty, progress, change - into crimes.
Salman Rushdie
This rudderless world is not shaped by vague metaphysical forces. It is not God who kills the children. Not fate that butchers them or destiny that feeds them to the dogs. It’s us. Only us. - the character Rorschach in Watchmen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 30 by kbertsche, posted 07-25-2010 1:25 AM kbertsche has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 37 by kbertsche, posted 07-25-2010 11:12 AM anglagard has not replied

  
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